When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2025 · Missouri State · pick one to list those games
38% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 31% of games.
All 13 games
2025 · Missouri State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
ARST -1.5 | 55.5 | 21313862 | Q4 | ARST Q1 Late over |
28–34 |
2025 · Week 14 |
MOST -2.5 | 45.5 | 7243872 | Q4 | LT Q1 | 42–30 |
2025 · Week 13 |
KENN -6.5 | 54.5 | 17275475 | Q4 | KENN Q4 Late cover flip |
34–41 |
2025 · Week 12 |
MOST -7.5 | 48.5 | 10314862 | Q4 | MOST Q4 Late cover flip |
24–38 |
2025 · Week 11 |
LIB -7.5 | 51.5 | 7101738 | U | MOST Q3 Lead lost |
21–17 |
2025 · Week 10 |
MOST -3.5 | 50.5 | 14283549 | U | MOST Q3 | 21–28 |
2025 · Week 9 |
MOST -2.5 | 51.5 | 714243441 | U | MOST OT | 24–17 |
2025 · Week 7 |
MOST -2.5 | 52.5 | 3293242 | U | MTSU Q4 Lead lost |
22–20 |
2025 · Week 5 |
WKU -3.5 | 59.5 | 0194049 | U | WKU Q3 | 27–22 |
 UTM @  MOST2025 · Week 4 |
MOST -14.5 | 54.5 | 21354252 | U | MOST Q1 | 10–42 |
2025 · Week 3 |
SMU -28.5 | 59.5 | 10243138 | U | MOST Q1 | 28–10 |
2025 · Week 2 |
MRSH -7.5 | 53.5 | 0243441 | U | MOST Q3 Lead lost |
21–20 |
2025 · Week 1 |
USC -36.5 | 60.5 | 17526986 | Q3 | USC Q3 | 13–73 |
ARST
LT
KENN
UTEP
LIB
FIU
NMSU
MTSU
WKU
SMU
MRSH
USCWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 31% 4
Q2 0% 0
Q3 38% 5
Q4 23% 3
OT 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 64% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 64% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.