When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2025 · Mississippi State · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.
All 12 games
2025 · Mississippi State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
MSST -3 | 52.5 | 21245072 | Q4 | WAKE Q1 | 43–29 |
2025 · Week 14 |
MISS -7.5 | 62.5 | 21313757 | U | MISS Q2 | 38–19 |
2025 · Week 12 |
MIZ -7.5 | 50.5 | 24315976 | Q3 | MIZ Q2 | 27–49 |
2025 · Week 11 |
UGA -9.5 | 56.5 | 10315262 | Q4 | UGA Q2 Late over |
41–21 |
2025 · Week 10 |
ARK -5.5 | 66.5 | 7204973 | Q4 | MSST Q4 Late over Lead lost |
38–35 |
2025 · Week 9 |
TEX -8.5 | 49.5 | 1438457683 | Q4 | MSST Q1 Lead lost |
45–38 |
2025 · Week 8 |
FLA -9.5 | 51.5 | 10202044 | U | MSST Q1 | 21–23 |
2025 · Week 6 |
TA&M -17.5 | 57.5 | 3101740 | U | TA&M Q4 | 9–31 |
2025 · Week 5 |
TENN -7.5 | 63.5 | 1734446875 | Q4 | MSST Q1 Late over Lead lost |
41–34 |
2025 · Week 4 |
MSST -24.5 | 48.5 | 10243448 | U | MSST Q4 Late cover flip |
10–38 |
2025 · Week 2 |
ASU -5.5 | 58.5 | 10202744 | U | MSST Q1 | 20–24 |
2025 · Week 1 |
MSST -15.5 | 59.5 | 13234451 | U | MSST Q3 | 34–17 |
WAKE
MSST
MISS
MIZ
UGA
ARK
TEX
FLA
TA&M
TENN
NIU
ASU
USMWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 42% 5
Q2 25% 3
Q3 8% 1
Q4 25% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 82% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 83% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.