When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2025 · Louisville · pick one to list those games
46% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 38% of games.
All 13 games
2025 · Louisville · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
LOU -11.5 | 44.5 | 10101749 | Q4 | TOL Q1 Late over |
22–27 |
2025 · Week 14 |
UK -1.5 | 45.5 | 7202741 | U | LOU Q1 | 0–41 |
2025 · Week 13 |
SMU -3.5 | 50.5 | 10273044 | U | SMU Q1 | 6–38 |
2025 · Week 12 |
LOU -2.5 | 50.5 | 6193239 | U | CLEM Q4 | 20–19 |
2025 · Week 11 |
LOU -18.5 | 49.5 | 1430434655 | OT | CAL Q1 Late over |
29–26 |
2025 · Week 10 |
LOU -10.5 | 52.5 | 16233744 | U | LOU Q4 Late cover flip |
28–16 |
2025 · Week 9 |
LOU -25.5 | 54.5 | 10314562 | Q4 | BC Q1 | 24–38 |
2025 · Week 8 |
MIA -10.5 | 49.5 | 21243045 | U | LOU Q1 | 24–21 |
2025 · Week 6 |
LOU -6.5 | 61.5 | 1428384857 | U | UVA Q1 | 30–27 |
2025 · Week 5 |
LOU -3.5 | 52.5 | 17444761 | Q4 | LOU Q4 | 34–27 |
2025 · Week 4 |
LOU -25.5 | 50.5 | 10243357 | Q4 | BGSU Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
17–40 |
2025 · Week 2 |
LOU -15.5 | 56.5 | 7132842 | U | JMU Q1 | 14–28 |
 EKU @  LOU2025 · Week 1 |
LOU -37.5 | 57.5 | 21485568 | Q4 | EKU Q4 | 17–51 |
TOL
UK
SMU
CLEM
CAL
VT
BC
MIA
UVA
PITT
BGSU
JMUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 62% 8
Q2 0% 0
Q3 0% 0
Q4 38% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 50% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 50% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 5 | 20% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.