When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2025 · Fresno State · pick one to list those games
38% went over. Of the 5 overs, 20% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 15% of games.
All 13 games
2025 · Fresno State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
FRES -5.5 | 40.5 | 3121221 | U | FRES Q2 | 3–18 |
2025 · Week 14 |
FRES -3 | 44.5 | 3283155 | Q4 | FRES Q2 | 41–14 |
2025 · Week 13 |
FRES -1.5 | 50.5 | 14243145 | U | USU Q4 | 28–17 |
2025 · Week 12 |
FRES -2.5 | 40.5 | 10131327 | U | FRES Q1 | 3–24 |
2025 · Week 10 |
BOIS -17.5 | 47.5 | 7173137 | U | FRES Q1 | 30–7 |
2025 · Week 9 |
SDSU -3.5 | 45.5 | 7131323 | U | SDSU Q1 | 23–0 |
2025 · Week 7 |
FRES -5.5 | 48.5 | 14495670 | Q2 | CSU Q1 | 21–49 |
2025 · Week 6 |
FRES -13.5 | 46.5 | 3233037 | U | NEV Q3 | 17–20 |
2025 · Week 4 |
FRES -2.5 | 47.5 | 0162844 | U | HAW Q1 Late cover flip |
23–21 |
 SOU @  FRES2025 · Week 3 |
FRES -35.5 | 50.5 | 14424963 | Q4 | FRES Q4 | 7–56 |
2025 · Week 2 |
ORST -1.5 | 44.5 | 13354163 | Q4 | FRES Q1 | 36–27 |
2025 · Week 1 |
GASO -1.5 | 51.5 | 17274256 | Q4 | FRES Q1 | 14–42 |
2025 · Week 1 |
KU -14.5 | 50.5 | 21313838 | U | KU Q2 | 7–31 |
M-OH
SJSU
USU
WYO
BOIS
SDSU
CSU
NEV
HAW
ORST
GASO
KUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 54% 7
Q2 23% 3
Q3 8% 1
Q4 15% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 77% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 77% and covered 77% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.