When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2024 · UConn · pick one to list those games
77% went over. Of the 10 overs, 20% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 15% of games.
All 13 games
2024 · UConn · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
UNC -1.5 | 52.5 | 17313441 | U | CONN Q1 | 27–14 |
2024 · Week 14 |
CONN -9.5 | 49.5 | 28556189 | Q2 | MASS Q1 | 47–42 |
2024 · Week 13 |
SYR -9.5 | 53.5 | 14354155 | Q4 | CONN Q1 Late cover flip Late over |
24–31 |
2024 · Week 11 |
CONN -7.5 | 53.5 | 6233354 | Q4 | CONN Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
31–23 |
2024 · Week 10 |
CONN -7.5 | 48.5 | 10233361 | Q4 | GAST Q2 Late cover flip |
27–34 |
2024 · Week 9 |
CONN -6.5 | 45.5 | 331027 | U | CONN Q4 | 10–17 |
2024 · Week 8 |
WAKE -2.5 | 56.5 | 6193343 | U | WAKE Q2 | 23–20 |
2024 · Week 6 |
CONN -17.5 | 48.5 | 3162949 | Q4 | TEM Q1 Late over Lead lost |
20–29 |
2024 · Week 5 |
CONN -5.5 | 44.5 | 10264050 | Q4 | CONN Q1 | 3–47 |
2024 · Week 4 |
FAU -0.5 | 45.5 | 3173462 | Q4 | CONN Q1 | 14–48 |
2024 · Week 3 |
DUKE -17.5 | 46.5 | 7243847 | Q4 | CONN Q1 | 21–26 |
 MRMK @  CONN2024 · Week 2 |
CONN -14.5 | 44.5 | 42637080 | Q2 | CONN Q1 | 17–63 |
2024 · Week 1 |
MD -18.5 | 44.5 | 14234357 | Q4 | MD Q2 | 7–50 |
UNC
MASS
SYR
UAB
GAST
RICE
WAKE
TEM
BUFF
FAU
DUKE
MDWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 62% 8
Q2 23% 3
Q3 0% 0
Q4 15% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 54% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 62% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.