When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2024 · Toledo · pick one to list those games
62% went over. Of the 8 overs, 13% had cashed by halftime and 13% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 15% of games.
All 13 games
2024 · Toledo · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
PITT -6.5 | 48.5 | 832436094 | Q4 | TOL Q1 | 46–48 |
2024 · Week 14 |
TOL -9.5 | 50.5 | 7772835 | U | AKR Q1 | 14–21 |
2024 · Week 13 |
OHIO -0.5 | 45.5 | 071431 | U | OHIO Q4 | 24–7 |
2024 · Week 12 |
TOL -14.5 | 51.5 | 10303747 | U | TOL Q2 | 10–37 |
2024 · Week 10 |
TOL -10.5 | 54.5 | 7172657 | Q4 | EMU Q1 Late over |
29–28 |
2024 · Week 9 |
TOL -1.5 | 47.5 | 21485767 | Q2 | BGSU Q1 | 41–26 |
2024 · Week 8 |
NIU -3.5 | 42.5 | 3131619 | U | TOL Q1 | 13–6 |
2024 · Week 7 |
TOL -10.5 | 44.5 | 772845 | Q4 | BUFF Q1 | 15–30 |
2024 · Week 6 |
TOL -5.5 | 43.5 | 17263650 | Q4 | TOL Q1 | 20–30 |
2024 · Week 4 |
TOL -2.5 | 60.5 | 0213347 | U | WKU Q4 | 21–26 |
2024 · Week 3 |
MSST -10.5 | 56.5 | 7314558 | Q4 | TOL Q1 Late over |
41–17 |
2024 · Week 2 |
TOL -17.5 | 50.5 | 7304061 | Q4 | MASS Q1 Late over |
23–38 |
 DUQ @  TOL2024 · Week 1 |
TOL -27.5 | 53.5 | 28385259 | Q4 | TOL Q3 | 10–49 |
PITT
AKR
OHIO
CMU
EMU
BGSU
NIU
BUFF
M-OH
WKU
MSST
MASSWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 69% 9
Q2 8% 1
Q3 8% 1
Q4 15% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 77% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 75% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 5 | 20% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.