When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2024 · San José State · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 50% of games.
All 12 games
2024 · San José State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
USF -0.5 | 64.5 | 731415480 | OT | USF OT Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
41–39 |
2024 · Week 14 |
SJSU -2.5 | 54.5 | 3274465 | Q4 | SJSU Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
31–34 |
2024 · Week 13 |
UNLV -7.5 | 59.5 | 3263643 | U | UNLV Q4 | 27–16 |
2024 · Week 12 |
BOIS -14.5 | 61.5 | 7284963 | Q4 | BOIS Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
42–21 |
2024 · Week 11 |
ORST -2.5 | 56.5 | 0202337 | U | SJSU Q4 | 24–13 |
2024 · Week 9 |
FRES -6.5 | 55.5 | 10273443 | U | FRES Q2 | 10–33 |
2024 · Week 8 |
SJSU -11.5 | 52.5 | 7142438 | U | WYO Q3 Late cover flip |
14–24 |
2024 · Week 7 |
CSU -2.5 | 54.5 | 14283555 | Q4 | CSU Q3 Late over |
24–31 |
2024 · Week 6 |
SJSU -7.5 | 51.5 | 14425666 | Q3 | NEV Q1 Lead lost |
31–35 |
2024 · Week 3 |
SJSU -16.5 | 41.5 | 3203441 | U | SJSU Q4 Late cover flip |
10–31 |
2024 · Week 2 |
AFA -1.5 | 43.5 | 21212124 | U | SJSU Q1 | 17–7 |
2024 · Week 1 |
SJSU -2.5 | 62.5 | 21314566 | Q4 | SJSU Q4 Late over |
24–42 |
USF
SJSU
STAN
UNLV
BOIS
ORST
FRES
WYO
CSU
NEV
KENN
AFA
SACWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 17% 2
Q2 17% 2
Q3 17% 2
Q4 42% 5
OT 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 63% of 8 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 22+ | 6 | 17% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.