When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2024 · Sam Houston · pick one to list those games
33% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.
All 12 games
2024 · Sam Houston · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
GASO -3.5 | 48.5 | 7314057 | Q4 | SHSU Q1 Late over |
26–31 |
2024 · Week 14 |
LIB -2.5 | 47.5 | 5262938 | U | SHSU Q1 | 18–20 |
2024 · Week 13 |
JXST -5.5 | 57.5 | 7172532 | U | JXST Q4 | 11–21 |
2024 · Week 12 |
SHSU -20.5 | 43.5 | 06203440 | U | KENN Q1 | 23–17 |
2024 · Week 10 |
SHSU -10.5 | 45.5 | 551212 | U | LT Q1 | 3–9 |
2024 · Week 9 |
SHSU -6.5 | 46.5 | 00717 | U | FIU Q4 | 10–7 |
2024 · Week 8 |
SHSU -1.5 | 55.5 | 7313145 | U | WKU Q1 | 31–14 |
2024 · Week 6 |
SHSU -9.5 | 49.5 | 7245262 | Q3 | SHSU Q2 | 41–21 |
2024 · Week 5 |
TXST -10.5 | 54.5 | 22537379 | Q3 | SHSU Q3 Lead lost |
39–40 |
2024 · Week 4 |
SHSU -14.5 | 43.5 | 17242442 | U | SHSU Q2 | 11–31 |
2024 · Week 2 |
UCF -21.5 | 53.5 | 14314559 | Q4 | UCF Q3 Late over |
14–45 |
2024 · Week 1 |
RICE -9.5 | 48.5 | 17314848 | U | SHSU Q1 | 34–14 |
GASO
SHSU
LIB
JXST
KENN
LT
FIU
WKU
UTEP
TXST
NMSU
UCF
RICEWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 17% 2
Q3 17% 2
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 90% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 91% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.