When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2024 · Oregon · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 6 overs, 17% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 33% of games.
All 12 games
2024 · Oregon · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
OSU -2.5 | 54.5 | 14425662 | Q3 | OSU Q1 | 41–21 |
2024 · Week 15 |
ORE -3.5 | 51.5 | 24556282 | Q2 | ORE Q1 | 37–45 |
2024 · Week 14 |
ORE -17.5 | 50.5 | 10424970 | Q4 | ORE Q3 | 21–49 |
2024 · Week 12 |
ORE -13.5 | 49.5 | 6161929 | U | WIS Q1 | 16–13 |
2024 · Week 11 |
ORE -24 | 57.5 | 10313957 | U | MD Q1 | 18–39 |
2024 · Week 10 |
ORE -14.5 | 45.5 | 14384855 | Q3 | ORE Q4 Late cover flip |
38–17 |
2024 · Week 9 |
ORE -22.5 | 54.5 | 17384447 | U | ORE Q2 | 9–38 |
2024 · Week 8 |
ORE -29.5 | 60.5 | 14212135 | U | ORE Q4 | 35–0 |
2024 · Week 7 |
OSU -3.5 | 54.5 | 13435063 | Q4 | ORE Q4 Lead lost |
31–32 |
2024 · Week 6 |
ORE -21.5 | 52.5 | 7212441 | U | MSU Q4 Late cover flip |
10–31 |
2024 · Week 5 |
ORE -23.5 | 52.5 | 10384147 | U | UCLA Q1 | 34–13 |
2024 · Week 2 |
ORE -17.5 | 60.5 | 10344771 | Q4 | BOIS Q1 | 34–37 |
OSU
ORE
PSU
WASH
WIS
MD
MICH
ILL
PUR
MSU
UCLA
BOISWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 8% 1
Q3 8% 1
Q4 33% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 75% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 58% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.