When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2024 · North Carolina · pick one to list those games
38% went over. Of the 5 overs, 20% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 38% of games.
All 13 games
2024 · North Carolina · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
UNC -1.5 | 52.5 | 17313441 | U | CONN Q1 | 27–14 |
2024 · Week 14 |
UNC -2.5 | 54.5 | 7133365 | Q4 | NCSU Q4 Late over |
35–30 |
2024 · Week 13 |
UNC -1.5 | 50.5 | 3313462 | Q4 | BC Q1 Late over |
21–41 |
2024 · Week 12 |
UNC -10.5 | 64.5 | 3134155 | U | WAKE Q1 | 24–31 |
2024 · Week 10 |
UNC -2.5 | 50.5 | 3173946 | U | UNC Q2 | 35–11 |
2024 · Week 9 |
UVA -3.5 | 57.5 | 10304455 | U | UNC Q1 | 41–14 |
2024 · Week 7 |
GT -3.5 | 60.5 | 14345175 | Q4 | GT Q4 Late over |
41–34 |
2024 · Week 6 |
PITT -2.5 | 61.5 | 10344858 | U | PITT Q4 | 34–24 |
2024 · Week 5 |
UNC -1.5 | 54.5 | 10172741 | U | DUKE Q4 | 20–21 |
2024 · Week 4 |
UNC -11.5 | 48.5 | 397498120 | Q2 | JMU Q1 | 70–50 |
 NCCU @  UNC2024 · Week 3 |
UNC -37.5 | 57.5 | 7272755 | U | NCCU Q1 | 10–45 |
2024 · Week 2 |
UNC -21.5 | 47.5 | 17274458 | Q4 | CLT Q1 Late cover flip |
20–38 |
2024 · Week 1 |
UNC -1.5 | 52.5 | 0212736 | U | UNC Q4 | 19–17 |
CONN
NCSU
BC
WAKE
FSU
UVA
GT
PITT
DUKE
JMU
CLT
MINNWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 54% 7
Q2 8% 1
Q3 0% 0
Q4 38% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 58% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 50% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 20% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.