When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2024 · Missouri · pick one to list those games
46% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 31% of games.
All 13 games
2024 · Missouri · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
MIZ -1.5 | 41.5 | 21354551 | Q3 | MIZ Q4 Late cover flip |
24–27 |
2024 · Week 14 |
MIZ -3.5 | 51.5 | 7142449 | U | MIZ Q4 | 21–28 |
2024 · Week 13 |
MIZ -9.5 | 57.5 | 24415159 | Q4 | MIZ Q2 | 39–20 |
2024 · Week 12 |
SC -10.5 | 42.5 | 13273364 | Q4 | MIZ Q3 | 30–34 |
2024 · Week 11 |
OU -3.5 | 41.5 | 0121953 | Q4 | MIZ Q3 Late over |
23–30 |
2024 · Week 9 |
ALA -16.5 | 51.5 | 3132734 | U | ALA Q3 | 0–34 |
2024 · Week 8 |
MIZ -4.5 | 49.5 | 362338 | U | AUB Q1 Lead lost |
17–21 |
2024 · Week 7 |
MIZ -27.5 | 53.5 | 14274848 | U | MIZ Q3 | 45–3 |
2024 · Week 6 |
TA&M -2.5 | 46.5 | 10244151 | Q4 | TA&M Q1 | 10–41 |
2024 · Week 4 |
MIZ -18.5 | 52.5 | 1423404057 | OT | VAN Q1 Late over |
27–30 |
2024 · Week 3 |
MIZ -14.5 | 51.5 | 10313848 | U | BC Q1 | 21–27 |
2024 · Week 2 |
MIZ -34.5 | 53.5 | 3243138 | U | MIZ Q4 Late cover flip |
0–38 |
 MUR @  MIZ2024 · Week 1 |
MIZ -50.5 | 62.5 | 28354551 | U | MIZ Q4 Late cover flip |
0–51 |
IOWA
ARK
MSST
SC
OU
ALA
AUB
MASS
TA&M
VAN
BC
BUFFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 31% 4
Q2 8% 1
Q3 31% 4
Q4 31% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 64% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 67% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 20% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.