When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2024 · Buffalo · pick one to list those games
62% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 38% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.
All 13 games
2024 · Buffalo · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
BUFF -3.5 | 50.5 | 691633 | U | BUFF Q1 | 26–7 |
2024 · Week 14 |
BUFF -23.5 | 50.5 | 13264050 | U | BUFF Q2 | 7–43 |
2024 · Week 13 |
EMU -1.5 | 53.5 | 8173657 | Q4 | BUFF Q1 Late over |
37–20 |
2024 · Week 12 |
BUFF -3.5 | 54.5 | 1452669099 | Q3 | BALL Q1 Lead lost |
48–51 |
2024 · Week 10 |
BUFF -2.5 | 47.5 | 21314571 | Q4 | BUFF Q1 | 41–30 |
2024 · Week 9 |
OHIO -4.5 | 45.5 | 3344963 | Q3 | OHIO Q2 | 16–47 |
2024 · Week 8 |
WMU -1.5 | 48.5 | 17455989 | Q3 | WMU Q2 | 48–41 |
2024 · Week 7 |
TOL -10.5 | 44.5 | 772845 | Q4 | BUFF Q1 | 15–30 |
2024 · Week 5 |
CONN -5.5 | 44.5 | 10264050 | Q4 | CONN Q1 | 3–47 |
2024 · Week 4 |
NIU -12.5 | 42.5 | 717244043 | OT | BUFF Q1 Late over |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 3 |
BUFF -3.5 | 45.5 | 7133037 | U | BUFF Q1 | 3–34 |
2024 · Week 2 |
MIZ -34.5 | 53.5 | 3243138 | U | MIZ Q4 Late cover flip |
0–38 |
 LAF @  BUFF2024 · Week 1 |
BUFF -3.5 | 45.5 | 13162943 | U | BUFF Q1 | 13–30 |
LIB
KENT
EMU
BALL
AKR
OHIO
WMU
TOL
CONN
NIU
MASS
MIZWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 69% 9
Q2 23% 3
Q3 0% 0
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 85% and covered 92% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 92% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.