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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Virginia Tech ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · Virginia Tech · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime00%In Q3542%In Q4325%In OT00%Stayed under433%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed00%Leader lost the game00%
67% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 63% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · Virginia Tech · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 VT -13 43.5 17274461 Q3 VT Q4 41–20
2023 · Week 13
 VT -1.5 53 10245872 Q3 VT Q1 55–17
2023 · Week 12
 VT -2.5 41 0284963 Q3 NCSU Q1 35–28
2023 · Week 11
 VT -2.5 47.5 17385370 Q3 VT Q1 48–22
2023 · Week 10
 LOU -9 46.5 7173037 U LOU Q2 3–34
2023 · Week 9
 VT -2.5 47.5 13334548 Q4 VT Q1 10–38
2023 · Week 7
 VT -1.5 48.5 0273043 U VT Q2 13–30
2023 · Week 5
 PITT -3 40 14285659 Q3 VT Q1 21–38
2023 · Week 4
 MRSH -6.5 43 7273441 U MRSH Q2 17–24
2023 · Week 3
 RUTG -6.5 37.5 7243151 Q4 RUTG Q1 16–35
2023 · Week 2
 PUR PK 49 7343441 U PUR Q4 24–17
2023 · Week 1
 VT -16 48 2264753 Q4 VT Q4 17–36
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 25% 3
Q3 0% 0
Q4 25% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 100% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 100% of 11 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over5100% 5
1–32100% 2
4–71100% 1
8–1010% 0
15–1720% 0
18–2110% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.