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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

UTSA ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · UTSA · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime18%In Q318%In Q4217%In OT00%Stayed under867%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands18%Over cashed00%Leader lost the game00%
36% went over. Of the 4 overs, 25% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 9% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · UTSA · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 UTSA -7 47 7384552 Q4 UTSA Q3 35–17
2023 · Week 13
 TULN -3.5 53.5 14333345 U TULN Q2 16–29
2023 · Week 12
 UTSA -14.5 66.5 14426370 Q4 UTSA Q3 21–49
2023 · Week 11
 UTSA -14 55 3173848 U UTSA Q3 14–34
2023 · Week 10
 UTSA -8 70 10404366 U Push 37–29
2023 · Week 9
 UTSA -17.5 48 31515468 Q2 ECU Q1
Late cover flip
 27–41
2023 · Week 8
 UTSA -2.5 58.5 17303946 U UTSA Q2 36–10
2023 · Week 7
 UTSA -7.5 66.5 28375161 U UTSA Q1 20–41
2023 · Week 4
 TENN -20.5 59 14314559 P TENN Q4 14–45
2023 · Week 3
 UTSA -7 42 14345166 Q3 ARMY Q1 37–29
2023 · Week 2
 UTSA -14 66 3202733 U TXST Q1 13–20
2023 · Week 1
 UTSA -2.5 59.5 14172431 U HOU Q1 14–17
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 42% 5
Q2 17% 2
Q3 25% 3
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 82% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 75% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–31100% 1
4–71100% 1
15–1720% 0
18–2130% 0
22+30% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.