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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Utah State ✕

When did they go over?

13 games · 2023 · Utah State · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games13100%By halftime215%In Q318%In Q4646%In OT00%Stayed under431%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands323%Over cashed215%Leader lost the game00%
75% went over. Of the 9 overs, 22% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.

All 13 games

2023 · Utah State · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 USU -2.5 58.5 35455267 Q4 GAST Q1 45–22
2023 · Week 13
 USU -5 59 2131456285 Q4 UNM Q2
Late cover flip Late over
 44–41
2023 · Week 12
 BOIS -4 64 7414855 U BOIS Q2 45–10
2023 · Week 11
 USU -15 54.5 14344465 Q4 USU Q3 24–41
2023 · Week 10
 USU -2 56 010173456 P USU OT 32–24
2023 · Week 8
 SJSU -4 65 14284263 U SJSU Q3 21–42
2023 · Week 7
 FRES -5.5 55.5 14284569 Q4 USU Q4
Late cover flip
 37–32
2023 · Week 6
 CSU -3 62 20344868 Q4 USU Q2
Late over
 24–44
2023 · Week 5
 USU -4 50.5 7244167 Q4 CONN Q4
Late cover flip
 34–33
2023 · Week 4
 JMU -5.5 53.5 17556983 Q2 JMU Q1 45–38
2023 · Week 3
 AFA -9 45.5 22395360 Q3 AFA Q1 21–39
IDST @ USU
2023 · Week 2
 USU -24 61 146586106 Q2 USU Q2 28–78
2023 · Week 1
 IOWA -24 43.5 14202338 U USU Q1 14–24
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 31% 4
Q2 31% 4
Q3 15% 2
Q4 15% 2
OT 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 70% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 69% of 13 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over3100% 3
4–71100% 1
8–101100% 1
11–142100% 2
15–17367% 2
18–2110% 0
22+20% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.