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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Tennessee ✕

When did they go over?

13 games · 2023 · Tennessee · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games13100%By halftime00%In Q318%In Q4538%In OT00%Stayed under754%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands18%Over cashed18%Leader lost the game00%
50% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 46% of games.

All 13 games

2023 · Tennessee · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 TENN -5 37 0142135 U TENN Q2 0–35
2023 · Week 13
 TENN -28 57.5 21415572 Q4 VAN Q4 24–48
2023 · Week 12
 UGA -9 59 17344848 U UGA Q2 38–10
2023 · Week 11
 TENN -2 59 0202943 U MIZ Q1 7–36
2023 · Week 10
 TENN -34.5 55 17385962 Q3 TENN Q3 3–59
2023 · Week 9
 TENN -4 50.5 10405060 Q4 TENN Q4 33–27
2023 · Week 8
 ALA -8.5 47.5 13274454 Q4 ALA Q4 20–34
2023 · Week 7
 TENN -3.5 54.5 14172733 U TENN Q4
Late cover flip
 13–20
2023 · Week 5
 TENN -12 59 24344861 Q4 TENN Q2
Late over
 20–41
2023 · Week 4
 TENN -20.5 59 14314559 P TENN Q4 14–45
2023 · Week 3
 TENN -5 56.5 13333645 U FLA Q1 16–29
APSU @ TENN
2023 · Week 2
 TENN -48 65.5 6192943 U APSU Q1 13–30
2023 · Week 1
 TENN -28 58.5 7244562 Q4 TENN Q4 13–49
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 23% 3
Q2 23% 3
Q3 8% 1
Q4 46% 6
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 85% and covered 69% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 85% of 13 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over1100% 1
1–32100% 2
4–71100% 1
11–14367% 2
15–1720% 0
18–2110% 0
22+30% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.