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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

SMU ✕

When did they go over?

13 games · 2023 · SMU · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games13100%By halftime18%In Q3215%In Q4323%In OT00%Stayed under754%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed18%Leader lost the game00%
46% went over. Of the 6 overs, 17% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.

All 13 games

2023 · SMU · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 SMU -13.5 49.5 3242437 U BC Q1 14–23
2023 · Week 14
 TULN -2.5 47.5 14213140 U SMU Q1 26–14
2023 · Week 13
 SMU -19.5 46 35667373 Q2 SMU Q1 14–59
2023 · Week 12
 SMU -9.5 64 17274972 Q4 MEM Q1
Late over
 38–34
2023 · Week 11
 SMU -20 66.5 21314566 U SMU Q4 21–45
2023 · Week 10
 SMU -12.5 58.5 21456167 Q3 RICE Q1 36–31
2023 · Week 9
 SMU -20.5 55 31556979 Q3 SMU Q1 10–69
2023 · Week 8
 SMU -24 53 14244155 Q4 SMU Q3 55–0
2023 · Week 7
 SMU -11.5 49 14242441 U SMU Q4 31–10
2023 · Week 5
 SMU -22.5 53 14203650 U CLT Q1 16–34
2023 · Week 4
 TCU -7 62 10243751 U TCU Q3 17–34
PV @ SMU
2023 · Week 3
 SMU -42.5 63.5 14426369 Q4 SMU Q3 0–69
2023 · Week 2
 OU -16 70 10171739 U OU Q4 11–28
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 54% 7
Q2 0% 0
Q3 23% 3
Q4 23% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 92% and covered 69% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 69% of 13 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over3100% 3
1–31100% 1
11–141100% 1
15–17250% 1
18–2110% 0
22+50% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.