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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Oklahoma State ✕

When did they go over?

13 games · 2023 · Oklahoma State · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games13100%By halftime18%In Q318%In Q4431%In OT18%Stayed under646%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands18%Over cashed215%Leader lost the game215%
54% went over. Of the 7 overs, 14% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.

All 13 games

2023 · Oklahoma State · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 OKST -4 56 13305154 U OKST Q1 23–31
2023 · Week 14
 TEX -14.5 57.5 28495670 Q4 TEX Q2 21–49
2023 · Week 13
 OKST -16.5 55.5 1330375474 OT BYU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 34–40
2023 · Week 12
 OKST -6.5 57.5 17425673 Q4 OKST Q3
Late cover flip
 43–30
2023 · Week 11
 OKST -2 64 14244148 U UCF Q1 3–45
2023 · Week 10
 OU -6 62 14313851 U OKST Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 9
 OKST -7 53 14173858 Q4 OKST Q3
Late over
 13–45
2023 · Week 8
 WVU -3 48 10304482 Q4 OKST Q4 48–34
2023 · Week 7
 KU -2.5 52.5 24495971 Q3 OKST Q4
Lead lost
 32–39
2023 · Week 4
 ISU -3.5 36 14374761 Q2 ISU Q3 27–34
2023 · Week 3
 OKST -7 49.5 10232340 U USA Q1 33–7
2023 · Week 2
 OKST -2.5 53.5 7253242 U OKST Q4 27–15
CARK @ OKST
2023 · Week 1
 OKST -25.5 59.5 7132040 U CARK Q1 13–27
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 46% 6
Q2 8% 1
Q3 23% 3
Q4 23% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 62% and covered 62% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 69% and covered 69% of 13 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–32100% 2
4–7250% 1
15–171100% 1
18–211100% 1
22+50% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.