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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Northwestern ✕

When did they go over?

13 games · 2023 · Northwestern · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games13100%By halftime00%In Q3215%In Q4431%In OT00%Stayed under754%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands215%Over cashed215%Leader lost the game18%
46% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 23% of games.

All 13 games

2023 · Northwestern · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 UTAH -7 44 07721 U NU Q1 7–14
2023 · Week 13
 ILL -6 47 10415188 Q3 NU Q1 45–43
2023 · Week 12
 NU -2.5 47.5 662338 U NU Q1 15–23
2023 · Week 11
 WIS -12 43.5 10272734 U NU Q1 24–10
2023 · Week 10
 IOWA -6 31.5 00717 U NU Q4
Late cover flip
 10–7
2023 · Week 9
 MD -14 48.5 28414760 Q4 NU Q1 27–33
2023 · Week 8
 NEB -10.5 40 6161626 U NU Q1 9–17
HOW @ NU
2023 · Week 6
 NU -23 51 9163043 U HOW Q1 20–23
2023 · Week 5
 PSU -27 48 6203754 Q4 PSU Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 41–13
2023 · Week 4
 MINN -12 39.5 731416271 Q3 NU Q4
Lead lost
 34–37
2023 · Week 3
 DUKE -17 48 7243852 Q4 DUKE Q3
Late over
 14–38
2023 · Week 2
 NU -1 39.5 14143545 Q4 NU Q3 7–38
2023 · Week 1
 RUTG -5 39 7172431 U RUTG Q1 7–24
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 62% 8
Q2 0% 0
Q3 15% 2
Q4 23% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 90% and covered 70% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 69% of 13 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–31100% 1
4–71100% 1
11–142100% 2
15–1720% 0
22+50% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.