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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Memphis ✕

When did they go over?

13 games · 2023 · Memphis · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games13100%By halftime00%In Q318%In Q41077%In OT00%Stayed under215%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands215%Over cashed646%Leader lost the game18%
85% went over. Of the 11 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 9% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

All 13 games

2023 · Memphis · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 MEM -10 58 19355662 Q4 Push 26–36
2023 · Week 13
 MEM -13 64 20344966 Q4 MEM Q2
Late over
 45–21
2023 · Week 12
 SMU -9.5 64 17274972 Q4 MEM Q1
Late over
 38–34
2023 · Week 11
 MEM -10 51.5 731457682 Q4 CLT Q1
Lead lost
 44–38
2023 · Week 10
 MEM -13.5 68 286387109 Q3 USF Q2 50–59
2023 · Week 9
 MEM -6.5 69.5 21415287 Q4 UNT Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 45–42
2023 · Week 8
 MEM -7.5 61.5 21425966 Q4 MEM Q3
Late over
 45–21
2023 · Week 7
 TULN -4.5 54.5 7243852 U TULN Q4 31–21
2023 · Week 5
 MEM -3 58 3313867 Q4 Push
Late over
 32–35
2023 · Week 4
 MIZ -6.5 52 17274161 Q4 MIZ Q2
Late over
 27–34
2023 · Week 3
 MEM -12.5 47 21284252 Q4 NAVY Q1 24–28
2023 · Week 2
 MEM -21 57.5 3273440 U MEM Q3 37–3
BCU @ MEM
2023 · Week 1
 MEM -49 59.5 17355670 Q4 BCU Q1
Late cover flip
 14–56
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 31% 4
Q2 23% 3
Q3 15% 2
Q4 15% 2
OT 0% 0
Push 15% 2
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 36% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 42% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over1100% 1
1–32100% 2
4–73100% 3
11–141100% 1
15–17367% 2
18–212100% 2
22+10% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.