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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Louisiana ✕

When did they go over?

13 games · 2023 · Louisiana · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games13100%By halftime00%In Q318%In Q4754%In OT00%Stayed under538%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands323%Over cashed323%Leader lost the game323%
62% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 13% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.

All 13 games

2023 · Louisiana · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 JXST -3 59 1428456265 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Week 13
 UL -12.5 53 14455973 Q3 UL Q2 21–52
2023 · Week 12
 TROY -16 47.5 7273455 Q4 UL Q1 24–31
2023 · Week 11
 UL -7.5 52.5 728355665 Q4 USM Q1
Late over Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Week 10
 UL -7 61 21304454 U ARST Q1 17–37
2023 · Week 9
 USA -11.5 55 0174753 U UL Q1 33–20
2023 · Week 8
 UL -3 62 0273737 U GAST Q1 20–17
2023 · Week 6
 UL -1 67.5 17344464 U UL Q4
Late cover flip Lead lost
 30–34
2023 · Week 5
 MINN -9.5 49 14313859 Q4 MINN Q4 24–35
2023 · Week 4
 UL -10.5 57.5 7105283 Q4 BUFF Q1
Late cover flip
 38–45
2023 · Week 3
 UAB -2 60 0243762 Q4 UL Q1
Late over
 41–21
2023 · Week 2
 UL -6.5 51 17344869 Q4 ODU Q1 31–38
NWST @ UL
2023 · Week 1
 UL -35 54.5 10273451 U NWST Q1 13–38
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 69% 9
Q2 8% 1
Q3 0% 0
Q4 15% 2
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 50% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 67% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over1100% 1
4–72100% 2
8–1010% 0
11–142100% 2
15–171100% 1
18–21333% 1
22+333% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.