When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · Liberty · pick one to list those games
58% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 57% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 33% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · Liberty · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
ORE -18.5 | 71 | 9374451 | U | ORE Q2 | 6–45 |
2023 · Week 14 |
LIB -10 | 58 | 14427084 | Q3 | LIB Q4 | 35–49 |
2023 · Week 13 |
LIB -18 | 55 | 28354270 | Q4 | UTEP Q4 Late cover flip |
42–28 |
2023 · Week 12 |
LIB -26.5 | 63.5 | 21455274 | Q4 | MASS Q4 Late cover flip |
25–49 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LIB -14 | 60.5 | 14384148 | U | LIB Q2 | 10–38 |
2023 · Week 10 |
LIB -14 | 59 | 17386686 | Q3 | LIB Q2 | 30–56 |
2023 · Week 9 |
LIB -4 | 61.5 | 14243171 | Q4 | LIB Q3 Late over |
42–29 |
2023 · Week 8 |
LIB -16 | 56.5 | 28427077 | Q3 | MTSU Q1 | 35–42 |
2023 · Week 7 |
LIB -7 | 59.5 | 7203044 | U | LIB Q4 | 31–13 |
2023 · Week 4 |
LIB -10 | 54.5 | 20304444 | U | LIB Q2 | 38–6 |
2023 · Week 3 |
LIB -2.5 | 54 | 10386282 | Q3 | LIB Q1 | 55–27 |
2023 · Week 2 |
LIB -9 | 54.5 | 14405050 | U | LIB Q3 | 17–33 |
LIB
ORE
NMSU
UTEP
MASS
ODU
LT
WKU
MTSU
JXST
FIU
BUFFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 17% 2
Q2 33% 4
Q3 17% 2
Q4 33% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 78% of 9 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 80% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.