When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
13 games · 2023 · James Madison · pick one to list those games
62% went over. Of the 8 overs, 13% had cashed by halftime and 38% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.
All 13 games
2023 · James Madison · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
AFA -2.5 | 44 | 14284252 | Q4 | AFA Q2 | 21–31 |
2023 · Week 13 |
JMU -4 | 51.5 | 7284970 | Q4 | JMU Q1 | 56–14 |
2023 · Week 12 |
JMU -10 | 56.5 | 315154049 | U | APP Q1 | 26–23 |
2023 · Week 11 |
JMU -25.5 | 48 | 3163650 | Q4 | JMU Q4 Late over |
6–44 |
2023 · Week 10 |
JMU -6 | 52 | 14214256 | Q4 | JMU Q2 | 42–14 |
2023 · Week 9 |
JMU -19.5 | 48 | 10245457 | Q3 | ODU Q1 | 27–30 |
2023 · Week 8 |
JMU -5 | 49 | 031529 | U | JMU Q3 | 20–9 |
2023 · Week 7 |
JMU -5.5 | 59.5 | 14264754 | U | JMU Q1 | 13–41 |
2023 · Week 5 |
JMU -1 | 48.5 | 14313454 | Q4 | JMU Q1 Late over |
23–31 |
2023 · Week 4 |
JMU -5.5 | 53.5 | 17556983 | Q2 | JMU Q1 | 45–38 |
2023 · Week 3 |
TROY -2.5 | 46.5 | 3202330 | U | JMU Q1 | 16–14 |
2023 · Week 2 |
JMU -6 | 40 | 24315971 | Q3 | UVA Q2 Lead lost |
36–35 |
 BUCK @  JMU2023 · Week 1 |
JMU -47 | 53.5 | 3202741 | U | BUCK Q1 | 3–38 |
AFA
CCU
APP
CONN
GAST
ODU
MRSH
GASO
USA
USU
TROY
UVAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 62% 8
Q2 23% 3
Q3 8% 1
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 77% of 13 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 85% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.