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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Jacksonville State ✕

When did they go over?

13 games · 2023 · Jacksonville State · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games13100%By halftime00%In Q3215%In Q4431%In OT00%Stayed under754%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands215%Over cashed18%Leader lost the game323%
46% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 9% of games.

All 13 games

2023 · Jacksonville State · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 JXST -3 59 1428456265 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 34–31
2023 · Week 13
 JXST -2.5 48 14202037 U NMSU Q1 17–20
2023 · Week 12
 JXST -10 55 28527373 Q3 JXST Q1 17–56
2023 · Week 10
 SC -14 55 21355666 Q3 JXST Q1 28–38
2023 · Week 9
 JXST -9 48 21274357 Q4 JXST Q1 41–16
2023 · Week 8
 WKU -7.5 60.5 10272737 U JXST Q2
Lead lost
 17–20
2023 · Week 7
 LIB -7 59.5 7203044 U LIB Q4 31–13
2023 · Week 6
 MTSU -2.5 52 3304775 Q4 JXST Q3 45–30
2023 · Week 5
 JXST -7 36 2128355663 Q4 Push
Late cover flip Lead lost
 35–28
2023 · Week 4
 JXST -6.5 51 7142121 U JXST Q1 0–21
2023 · Week 2
 CCU -13.5 61 13193246 U CCU Q3 16–30
ETSU @ JXST
2023 · Week 1
 JXST -20 55 17244552 U JXST Q3 3–49
2023 · Week 1
 UTEP -1.5 54.5 3172431 U JXST Q1 14–17
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 46% 6
Q2 8% 1
Q3 23% 3
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
Push 15% 2
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 64% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 75% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–31100% 1
4–72100% 2
11–1410% 0
15–171100% 1
22+60% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.