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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Air Force ✕

When did they go over?

13 games · 2023 · Air Force · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games13100%By halftime00%In Q3431%In Q4323%In OT00%Stayed under646%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands215%Over cashed18%Leader lost the game00%
54% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 57% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.

All 13 games

2023 · Air Force · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 AFA -2.5 44 14284252 Q4 AFA Q2 21–31
2023 · Week 13
 BOIS -7 44.5 3234346 Q4 BOIS Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 19–27
2023 · Week 12
 AFA -3 47 14415558 Q3 UNLV Q3 31–27
2023 · Week 11
 AFA -20 46 7163040 U HAW Q1 13–27
2023 · Week 10
 AFA -18.5 32.5 17262626 U ARMY Q1 23–3
2023 · Week 9
 AFA -14.5 47 7263643 U AFA Q4 30–13
2023 · Week 8
 AFA -11 34 071023 U Push
Late cover flip
 17–6
2023 · Week 7
 AFA -12.5 41.5 21384561 Q3 WYO Q1 27–34
2023 · Week 5
 AFA -10.5 43.5 0315259 Q3 AFA Q2 10–49
2023 · Week 4
 AFA -6.5 45 9374465 Q4 AFA Q4 45–20
2023 · Week 3
 AFA -9 45.5 22395360 Q3 AFA Q1 21–39
2023 · Week 2
 AFA -13.5 36.5 03616 U SHSU Q1 13–3
RMU @ AFA
2023 · Week 1
 AFA -47 51.5 14283549 U RMU Q1 7–42
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 46% 6
Q2 15% 2
Q3 8% 1
Q4 23% 3
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 58% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 75% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over4100% 4
1–33100% 3
4–710% 0
11–1410% 0
15–1720% 0
22+20% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.