When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
919 games · 2025 · pick one to list those games
49% went over. Of the 449 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
Went over by halftime: 14 games
2025 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
DUKE -4 | 49.5 | 28526781 | Q2 | ASU Q3 Lead lost |
39–42 |
2025 · Week 14 |
M-OH -16.5 | 40.5 | 31414869 | Q2 | M-OH Q2 | 24–45 |
2025 · Week 14 |
IOWA -5.5 | 38.5 | 20404956 | Q2 | IOWA Q2 | 40–16 |
 MER @  AUB2025 · Week 13 |
AUB -26.5 | 49.5 | 28526679 | Q2 | AUB Q3 | 17–62 |
2025 · Week 12 |
GASO -3.5 | 58.5 | 38627585 | Q2 | GASO Q1 | 40–45 |
2025 · Week 10 |
CLEM -4.5 | 55.5 | 28567391 | Q2 | DUKE Q1 Late cover flip Lead lost |
46–45 |
2025 · Week 9 |
TENN -7.5 | 54.5 | 28567690 | Q2 | TENN Q1 | 56–34 |
2025 · Week 8 |
JMU -3.5 | 47.5 | 34557690 | Q2 | JMU Q3 | 27–63 |
2025 · Week 7 |
FRES -5.5 | 48.5 | 14495670 | Q2 | CSU Q1 | 21–49 |
2025 · Week 4 |
ND -24.5 | 51.5 | 21587986 | Q2 | ND Q3 | 30–56 |
2025 · Week 3 |
ND -7.5 | 48.5 | 21526281 | Q2 | TA&M Q1 | 41–40 |
2025 · Week 3 |
CONN -9.5 | 51.5 | 2452667685 | Q2 | DEL Q1 Lead lost |
41–44 |
 UNH @  BALL2025 · Week 3 |
BALL -2.5 | 46.5 | 28495863 | Q2 | BALL Q2 | 29–34 |
2025 · Week 3 |
MIZ -27.5 | 46.5 | 14485562 | Q2 | MIZ Q2 | 10–52 |
ASU
DUKE
M-OH
IOWA
NEB
CCU
GASO
CLEM
TENN
UK
ODU
JMU
FRES
CSU
PUR
ND
TA&M
CONN
DEL
UL
MIZWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 451
Q2 16% 150
Q3 15% 142
Q4 18% 165
OT 1% 8
Push 0% 3
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 69% of 860 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 73% of 867 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 147 | 100% 147 |
| 1–3 | 42 | 95% 40 |
| 4–7 | 102 | 90% 92 |
| 8–10 | 79 | 71% 56 |
| 11–14 | 87 | 54% 47 |
| 15–17 | 73 | 40% 29 |
| 18–21 | 102 | 22% 22 |
| 22+ | 287 | 6% 16 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.