Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Sacred Heart Pioneers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ETWilliam H. Pitt Center · at Sacred Heart

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: C Connecticut and Sacred Heart
CCSU	This season	SHU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SHU 75–70 · win probability SHU 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CCSU has more of the edges

CCSU 3, SHU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CCSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CCSU 51.6 and allows 50.2; SHU 52.0 and allows 53.5

CCSUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CCSU 55%, SHU 18%. Transfers in: CCSU 0, SHU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: CCSU plays 65.5 a game (329th fastest), SHU 68.6 (201st). Faster games mean more points

SHUSmall

Home court

SHU at home. This season: SHU 0-0 at home, CCSU 0-0 away

CCSUSmall

Three-pointers

CCSU hits 35.8% and allows 33.4%; SHU hits 35.7% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 34.9% and 50.7% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CCSU 16.3%, SHU 17.6%. Forced: CCSU 14.0%, SHU 14.6%

Even

SHU offense vs CCSU defense

Offense 281st of 366 against a defense 247th, on the model’s ratings

Even

CCSU offense vs SHU defense

Offense 353rd of 366 against a defense 334th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CCSU has played the 358th-hardest schedule, SHU the 340th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CCSU 27.5%, SHU 28.6%. Defensive: CCSU 69.6%, SHU 69.1%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CCSU 31.2, SHU 31.0. Allowed: CCSU 26.9, SHU 27.0

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SHU -4.8	—
Total	—	144.4	—
Projected score	—	CCSU 69.8 · SHU 74.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SHU -2.7	—
1H total	67.6	—
1H projected score	CCSU 32.4 · SHU 35.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CCSU LLLLL	14-14	50%	11-5	—
SHU LWWWL	15-17	47%	6-6	—

Venue/role: CCSU away; SHU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CCSU UUOUU	15-13	54%	16-12
SHU UUUOU	15-17	47%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CCSU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
SHU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

C Connecticut

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs QUIN	L49–71LU
Nov 28	vs NAVY	No recent meeting
Nov 29	@ FAIR	L70–84LO

Sacred Heart

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ PROV	L64–78WU
Nov 24	@ RUTG	L50–88LU
Nov 29	vs NJIT	W65–49WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

CCSU 4–4 SHUSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · CCSU 4-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 24, 2025-26	SHU 106 @ CCSU 108	CCSU -3.5	SHU W
Nov 21, 2024-25	CCSU 54 @ SHU 67	SHU +2.5	SHU W
Feb 24, 2023-24	CCSU 68 @ SHU 67	SHU -1.5	CCSU W
Feb 8, 2023-24	SHU 70 @ CCSU 77	CCSU -4.5	CCSU W
Feb 25, 2022-23	SHU 69 @ CCSU 67	CCSU -1.5	SHU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

C Connecticut

28 games played

Straight up

16-12

57% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-13

54% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1257%

L W L W W L L W L L W W W W L L L W L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1450%

L W W W L W L W L W W L W W L L L W L W W W W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1354%

U U O U O O U O O O O O U O O O U U U O O O U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@QUIN	L 49-71	+9.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 120
Nov 11	@BC	W 60-59	+17.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 119
Nov 16	@MASS	L 77-84	+12.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 161
Nov 21	@RUTG	W 67-54	+15.5	W +28.5	137.5	U 121
Nov 24	vsSHU	W 108-106	-3.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 214
Dec 3	@HALL	L 61-77	+18.5	W +2.5	128.5	O 138
Dec 7	@NE	L 56-73	+1.5	L −15.5	138.5	U 129
Dec 13	@BING	W 84-67	-7.5	W +9.5	133.5	O 151
Dec 18	vsFAIR	L 70-84	-6.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 154
Jan 2	@LIU	L 78-84	+6.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 4	vsNHVN	W 72-61	-7.5	W +3.5	130.5	O 133
Jan 8	vsSTO	W 76-69	-7.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 145
Jan 10	@LEM	W 69-59	+1.5	W +11.5	146.5	U 128
Jan 17	@SFPA	W 98-90	-6.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 188
Jan 19	@MERC	L 61-79	+1.5	L −16.5	132.5	O 140
Jan 23	vsFDU	L 66-76	-7.5	L −17.5	140.5	O 142
Jan 26	@STO	L 59-61	-1.5	L −3.5	135.5	U 120
Jan 29	@WAG	W 62-55	-2.5	W +4.5	136.5	U 117
Jan 31	vsLIU	L 59-80	+2.5	L −18.5	142.5	U 139
Feb 5	vsCHST	W 78-67	-8.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 145
Feb 7	vsWAG	W 84-67	-5.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 151
Feb 12	@NHVN	W 81-76	-3.5	W +1.5	128.5	O 157
Feb 14	@FDU	W 63-57	+1.5	W +7.5	133.5	U 120
Feb 19	vsLEM	W 78-77	-8.5	L −7.5	165.5	U 155
Feb 21	@CHST	L 51-70	-3.5	L −22.5	138.5	U 121
Feb 26	vsMERC	W 80-78	-3.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 28	vsSFPA	W 69-64	-8.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 133
Mar 4	vsWAG	L 60-70	-3.5	L −13.5	139.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUIN

L 49-71

−12.5

W 60-59

+18.5

MASS

L 77-84

+5.5

RUTG

W 67-54

+28.5

SHU

W 108-106

−1.5

HALL

L 61-77

+2.5

L 56-73

−15.5

BING

W 84-67

+9.5

FAIR

L 70-84

−20.5

LIU

L 78-84

+0.5

NHVN

W 72-61

+3.5

STO

W 76-69

−0.5

LEM

W 69-59

+11.5

SFPA

W 98-90

+1.5

MERC

L 61-79

−16.5

FDU

L 66-76

−17.5

STO

L 59-61

−3.5

WAG

W 62-55

+4.5

LIU

L 59-80

−18.5

CHST

W 78-67

+2.5

WAG

W 84-67

+11.5

NHVN

W 81-76

+1.5

FDU

W 63-57

+7.5

LEM

W 78-77

−7.5

CHST

L 51-70

−22.5

MERC

W 80-78

−1.5

SFPA

W 69-64

−3.5

WAG

L 60-70

−13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUIN

L 49-71

−30.5

W 60-59

−17.5

MASS

L 77-84

+16.5

RUTG

W 67-54

−16.5

SHU

W 108-106

+70.5

HALL

L 61-77

+9.5

L 56-73

−9.5

BING

W 84-67

+17.5

FAIR

L 70-84

+10.5

LIU

L 78-84

+15.5

NHVN

W 72-61

+2.5

STO

W 76-69

+10.5

LEM

W 69-59

−18.5

SFPA

W 98-90

+43.5

MERC

L 61-79

+7.5

FDU

L 66-76

+1.5

STO

L 59-61

−15.5

WAG

W 62-55

−19.5

LIU

L 59-80

−3.5

CHST

W 78-67

+6.5

WAG

W 84-67

+14.5

NHVN

W 81-76

+28.5

FDU

W 63-57

−13.5

LEM

W 78-77

−10.5

CHST

L 51-70

−17.5

MERC

W 80-78

+16.5

SFPA

W 69-64

−19.5

WAG

L 60-70

−9.5

over 15under 13avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Sacred Heart

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

L L L W L L W L W L W L L L L L L W W W W W L L L W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L W W L W L W L W L L L L W L W W L L W L L L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O U U U O U O U U O U U O U O O U O O U O O U O U O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@DUQ	L 80-92	+12.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 172
Nov 11	@VILL	L 60-94	+19.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 154
Nov 15	@QUC	L 64-81	+5.5	L −11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsHC	W 79-66	-7.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 24	@CCSU	L 106-108	+3.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 214
Nov 29	@PSU	L 59-90	+14.5	L −16.5	160.5	U 149
Dec 3	@MSM	W 87-80	-1.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 167
Dec 7	vsIONA	L 69-81	-1.5	L −13.5	163.5	U 150
Dec 13	@NJIT	W 65-49	-6.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 114
Dec 16	@UML	L 82-87	-2.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 169
Dec 19	vsDART	W 85-63	+1.5	W +23.5	155.5	U 148
Dec 22	@TOW	L 47-72	+13.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 29	vsMRMK	L 72-80	-1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 2	@NIA	L 61-64	-1.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 4	@CAN	L 78-82	-5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 160
Jan 9	vsMRST	L 72-76	+5.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 148
Jan 11	vsQUIN	L 60-70	+5.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 14	@SIE	W 86-80	+8.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 166
Jan 19	@RID	W 105-85	-4.5	W +15.5	144.5	O 190
Jan 22	vsCAN	W 69-66	-10.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 24	vsNIA	W 71-70	-9.5	L −8.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 30	@QUIN	W 98-91	+8.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 189
Feb 1	@MRMK	L 58-75	+5.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 5	vsFAIR	L 87-92	-1.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 179
Feb 7	@MAN	L 68-80	-1.5	L −13.5	161.5	U 148
Feb 13	vsSPU	W 78-71	+1.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 149
Feb 15	vsRID	W 86-75	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 161
Feb 20	@FAIR	L 68-78	+4.5	L −5.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 22	@MRST	L 63-65	+7.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 27	vsMSM	W 77-69	-2.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 146
Mar 5	vsIONA	W 91-80	+3.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 171
Mar 6	vsMRMK	L 48-70	+6.5	L −15.5	143.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUQ

L 80-92

+0.5

VILL

L 60-94

−14.5

QUC

L 64-81

−11.5

W 79-66

+5.5

CCSU

L 106-108

+1.5

PSU

L 59-90

−16.5

MSM

W 87-80

+5.5

IONA

L 69-81

−13.5

NJIT

W 65-49

+9.5

UML

L 82-87

−7.5

DART

W 85-63

+23.5

TOW

L 47-72

−11.5

MRMK

L 72-80

−9.5

NIA

L 61-64

−4.5

CAN

L 78-82

−9.5

MRST

L 72-76

+1.5

QUIN

L 60-70

−4.5

SIE

W 86-80

+14.5

RID

W 105-85

+15.5

CAN

W 69-66

−7.5

NIA

W 71-70

−8.5

QUIN

W 98-91

+15.5

MRMK

L 58-75

−11.5

FAIR

L 87-92

−6.5

MAN

L 68-80

−13.5

SPU

W 78-71

+8.5

RID

W 86-75

+1.5

FAIR

L 68-78

−5.5

MRST

L 63-65

+5.5

MSM

W 77-69

+5.5

IONA

W 91-80

+14.5

MRMK

L 48-70

−15.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUQ

L 80-92

+14.5

VILL

L 60-94

−6.5

QUC

L 64-81

−20.5

W 79-66

−7.5

CCSU

L 106-108

+70.5

PSU

L 59-90

−11.5

MSM

W 87-80

+14.5

IONA

L 69-81

−13.5

NJIT

W 65-49

−37.5

UML

L 82-87

+17.5

DART

W 85-63

−7.5

TOW

L 47-72

−26.5

MRMK

L 72-80

+7.5

NIA

L 61-64

−14.5

CAN

L 78-82

+18.5

MRST

L 72-76

+4.5

QUIN

L 60-70

−22.5

SIE

W 86-80

+26.5

RID

W 105-85

+45.5

CAN

W 69-66

−10.5

NIA

W 71-70

+1.5

QUIN

W 98-91

+32.5

MRMK

L 58-75

−14.5

FAIR

L 87-92

+23.5

MAN

L 68-80

−13.5

SPU

W 78-71

+1.5

RID

W 86-75

+14.5

FAIR

L 68-78

−12.5

MRST

L 63-65

−18.5

MSM

W 77-69

−4.5

IONA

W 91-80

+21.5

MRMK

L 48-70

−25.5

over 15under 17avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Sacred Heart has the better starters

Position by position: C Connecticut 1, Sacred Heart 2, even 2

C ConnecticutBetterSacred Heart

G J. Jones4.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 4

SHUBig

G J. Van Buggenhout TR6.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.1 ast Score 42

G V. Payne6.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 16

Even

G J. Slaughter5.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 20

G E. Parker2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 0

SHUBig

G S. Reilly TR3.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.3 ast Score 47

G R. Jones3.8 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20

CCSUSmall

F A. Yadd6 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 5

F D. James3.2 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 13

Even

F J. Robinson TR2.5 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 26

C ConnecticutBetterSacred Heart

CCSU offense353rd of 366 · -13.2

Even

SHU defense334th of 366 · -8.8

CCSU defense247th of 366 · -6.5

Even

SHU offense281st of 366 · -8.7

Backcourt-10.6 · 4 players

SHUBig

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player

CCSUSmall

Frontcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Bench-2.0 · 2 players

SHUSmall

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestCCSU betterSHU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

C Connecticut

Guards

J. Jones30 minV. Payne24 minE. Parker14 minR. Jones10 minA. Reynolds10 minR. LaurentNew

Forwards

D. James13 minJ. Mott8 minB. JacksonNewJ. ErvinNewR. TibbyNewC. LangdonNew

Sacred Heart

Guards

J. Van Buggenhout21 min · TRJ. Slaughter21 minS. Reilly9 min · TRM. Sheppard1 minG. BarroukNewJ. WallaceNew

Forwards

A. Yadd15 minJ. Robinson10 min · TRK. CurtisNewL. KrygierNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CCSU70.6 #272

SHU74.3 #186

Points per possession

CCSU1.08 #192

SHU1.08 #180

Pace (possessions)

CCSU65.5 #329

SHU68.6 #201

Shooting

Effective FG%

CCSU51.6 #165

SHU52.0 #145

3-point %

CCSU35.8 #69

SHU35.7 #73

3-point attempt rate

CCSU34.9 #278

SHU50.7 #12

Free throw rate

CCSU31.2 #276

SHU31.0 #281

Possessions

Turnover rate

CCSU16.3 #154

SHU17.6 #249

Offensive rebound rate

CCSU27.5 #281

SHU28.6 #246

Assists per game

CCSU12.8 #229

SHU14.6 #112

Defense

Points allowed

CCSU72.0 #105

SHU77.6 #253

Points allowed per possession

CCSU1.10 #218

SHU1.13 #296

Opponent effective FG%

CCSU50.2 #113

SHU53.5 #283

Opponent 3-point %

CCSU33.4 #146

SHU34.9 #241

Turnovers forced

CCSU14.0 #338

SHU14.6 #320

Defensive rebound rate

CCSU69.6 #179

SHU69.1 #199

Steals per game

CCSU5.4 #311

SHU5.4 #305

Blocks per game

CCSU3.9 #83

SHU3.0 #223

CCSU		SHU
Scoring
70.6 #272	Points per game	74.3 #186
1.08 #192	Points per possession	1.08 #180
65.5 #329	Pace (possessions)	68.6 #201
Shooting
51.6 #165	Effective FG%	52.0 #145
35.8 #69	3-point %	35.7 #73
34.9 #278	3-point attempt rate	50.7 #12
31.2 #276	Free throw rate	31.0 #281
Possessions
16.3 #154	Turnover rate	17.6 #249
27.5 #281	Offensive rebound rate	28.6 #246
12.8 #229	Assists per game	14.6 #112
Defense
72.0 #105	Points allowed	77.6 #253
1.10 #218	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #296
50.2 #113	Opponent effective FG%	53.5 #283
33.4 #146	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #241
14.0 #338	Turnovers forced	14.6 #320
69.6 #179	Defensive rebound rate	69.1 #199
5.4 #311	Steals per game	5.4 #305
3.9 #83	Blocks per game	3.0 #223

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Connecticut

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Wagner60–70
Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves69–64
Wvs Mercyhurst80–78
L@ Chicago St51–70
Wvs Le Moyne78–77

A week or more of rest.

Sacred Heart

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-12 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Merrimack48–70
Wvs Iona91–80
Wvs Mount St Marys77–69
L@ Marist63–65
L@ Fairfield68–78

A week or more of rest.

Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Sacred Heart Pioneers

What could decide it: CCSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

C Connecticut

Sacred Heart

Sacred Heart has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

C Connecticut

Sacred Heart