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NCAAB · Fri, Dec 4

Columbia @ New Haven

Jeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center · at New Haven
#170COLUColumbia
@
#355NHVNNew Haven
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
COLUThis seasonNHVN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLU 74–66 · win probability COLU 76%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 139.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: COLU has more of the edges

COLU 6, NHVN 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
COLUBig
NHVN offense vs COLU defense
Offense 362nd of 366 against a defense 198th, on the model’s ratings
COLUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: COLU 36.0%, NHVN 21.5%. Defensive: COLU 72.8%, NHVN 73.2%
Context
Schedule so far
COLU has played the 169th-hardest schedule, NHVN the 307th. A record against a soft schedule means less
COLUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: COLU 53.5 and allows 51.2; NHVN 48.7 and allows 51.8
COLUBig
COLU offense vs NHVN defense
Offense 163rd of 366 against a defense 285th, on the model’s ratings
COLUBig
Three-pointers
COLU hits 35.9% and allows 35.2%; NHVN hits 30.2% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 37.5% and 39.9% of their shots
NHVNSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: COLU 19.3%, NHVN 17.8%. Forced: COLU 15.1%, NHVN 17.1%
NHVNSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: COLU 28.6, NHVN 31.7. Allowed: COLU 33.5, NHVN 27.7
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: COLU plays 67.8 a game (237th fastest), NHVN 63.5 (363rd). Faster games mean more points
COLUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: COLU 61%, NHVN 27%. Transfers in: COLU 1, NHVN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
NHVNSmall
Home court
NHVN at home. This season: NHVN 0-0 at home, COLU 0-0 away
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelCOLU -8.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model139.9
Model edge—
Projected score
COLU 74 · NHVN 65.9
Win probability
COLU 76%
1st half
Spread
COLU -4.9
Total
65.5
Projected score
COLU 35.2 · NHVN 30.3
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Columbia 0, New Haven 0, even 5
ColumbiaBetterNew Haven
G M. Franklin9.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 48
Even
G K. Briggs6.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 38
G G. O'Keefe7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 45
No call
G A. Losiewicz2.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
G H. Sanders4.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 38
Even
F T. Steele3.2 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27
F M. Ritter6.9 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 21
No call
F Z. Traore1.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
F C. Igoe8.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 72
No call
C T. Burth0.9 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
ColumbiaBetterNew Haven
COLU offense163rd of 366 · -4.9
COLUSmall
NHVN defense285th of 366 · -7.1
COLU defense198th of 366 · -4.8
COLUBig
NHVN offense362nd of 366 · -14.4
Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-1.3 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players
COLUSmall
Frontcourt-2.5 · 3 players
Bench-1.9 · 4 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestCOLU betterNHVN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Columbia
Guards
M. Franklin24 minG. O'Keefe21 minH. Sanders15 minJ. Cunningham4 minD. VesseyNewN. RomanelliNew
Forwards
M. Ritter25 minC. Igoe20 minD. Langford11 min · TRR. Nweke8 minL. Coleman4 minN. ClarksonNew
New Haven
Guards
K. Briggs19 minA. Losiewicz7 minD. YoungNewF. MosleyNewD. LaDucaNewJ. HannaNew
Forwards
T. Steele15 minZ. Traore7 minN. NarcisseNewA. RamirezNewJ. BascombeNewM. OgleNew
Centers
T. Burth6 minT. ColemanNewM. CamaraNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
COLUNHVN
Scoring
74.9 #167Points per game61.5 #363
1.10 #130Points per possession0.97 #345
67.8 #237Pace (possessions)63.5 #363
Shooting
53.5 #83Effective FG%48.7 #296
35.9 #613-point %30.2 #340
37.5 #2213-point attempt rate39.9 #172
28.6 #337Free throw rate31.7 #261
Possessions
19.3 #332Turnover rate17.8 #259
36.0 #23Offensive rebound rate21.5 #359
15.0 #90Assists per game10.9 #339
Defense
73.5 #145Points allowed67.4 #24
1.09 #188Points allowed per possession1.06 #107
51.2 #168Opponent effective FG%51.8 #203
35.2 #258Opponent 3-point %34.3 #199
15.1 #282Turnovers forced17.1 #146
72.8 #42Defensive rebound rate73.2 #30
5.7 #270Steals per game6.0 #232
3.0 #235Blocks per game2.0 #342
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Columbia

14-12 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Harvard71–81
  • Lvs Yale54–60
  • Wvs Brown80–62
  • Lvs Dartmouth63–64
  • W@ Princeton75–65

A week or more of rest.

New Haven

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs Le Moyne66–59
  • L@ Wagner62–65
  • Lvs Saint Francis Red Wolves67–73
  • W@ FDU84–77
  • Wvs Stonehill64–51

A week or more of rest.