North Carolina Central Eagles at South Carolina State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 31, 4:30 PM ETSmith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center · at SC State · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: NC Central and SC State
NCCU	This season	SCST
3-12	Record	3-16
9-6	ATS	8-11
7-8	O/U	9-10

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCCU 76–73 · win probability NCCU 58%

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SCST has more of the edges

NCCU 2, SCST 3 · 2025-26 so far

SCSTBig

Three-pointers

NCCU hits 32.6% and allows 36.4%; SCST hits 34.0% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 33.9% and 33.3% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NCCU plays 66.9 a game (282nd fastest), SCST 70.3 (102nd). Faster games mean more points

SCSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NCCU 4%, SCST 34%. Transfers in: NCCU 4, SCST 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

NCCUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NCCU 39.3, SCST 41.0. Allowed: NCCU 36.9, SCST 51.9

SCSTSmall

Home court

SCST at home. This season: SCST 2-3 at home, NCCU 2-9 away

NCCUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NCCU 18.2%, SCST 20.8%. Forced: NCCU 19.8%, SCST 18.8%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NCCU 4-1 ATS, margin -2.6; SCST 3-2 ATS, margin -0.6

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NCCU 30.0%, SCST 31.4%. Defensive: NCCU 60.6%, SCST 62.4%

Even

SCST offense vs NCCU defense

Offense 341st of 366 against a defense 352nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NCCU has played the 310th-hardest schedule, SCST the 317th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

NCCU offense vs SCST defense

Offense 345th of 366 against a defense 351st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NCCU 47.5 and allows 54.5; SCST 46.8 and allows 53.9

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCCU WWWWL	9-6	60%	7-4	—
SCST WLWLW	8-11	42%	3-2	—

Venue/role: NCCU away; SCST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCCU OUOOO	7-8	47%	3-12
SCST UUOOU	9-10	47%	3-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCCU	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
SCST	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

NCCU 5–4 SCSTNCCU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · SCST has won the last 2 meetings · NCCU 3-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 14, 2024-25	NCCU 67 vs SCST 88	SCST -7.5	SCST W
Mar 6, 2024-25	NCCU 71 @ SCST 87	SCST -9.5	SCST W
Jan 25, 2024-25	SCST 77 @ NCCU 82	NCCU -1.5	NCCU W
Mar 7, 2023-24	SCST 68 @ NCCU 79	NCCU -7.5	NCCU W
Jan 20, 2023-24	NCCU 68 @ SCST 71	SCST +3.5	SCST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC Central

15 games played

Straight up

3-12

20% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-8

47% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1220%

L L L L L L L L L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-660%

L W L L W L W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-847%

O U U U U O U U O U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NCSU	L 66-114	+31.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	@UVA	L 62-81	+34.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 9	@APP	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UNC	L 53-97	+34.5	L −9.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 22	@DAY	L 55-74	+29.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 129
Nov 25	@UPST	L 67-82	+7.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 3	@JMU	L 62-67	+14.5	W +9.5	143.5	U 129
Dec 6	vsNCAT	L 54-69	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 123
Dec 9	@UK	L 67-103	+42.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsLONG	L 72-74	+3.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 29	@PSU	L 67-90	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 157
Jan 3	vsNORF	W 69-67	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 10	@COPP	W 88-77	-6.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 12	@MORG	W 89-78	-3.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 167
Jan 17	vsHOW	L 69-83	+2.5	L −11.5	141.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

−16.5

UVA

L 62-81

+15.5

APP

L 54-76

−11.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

DAY

L 55-74

+10.5

UPST

L 67-82

−7.5

JMU

L 62-67

+9.5

NCAT

L 54-69

−12.5

L 67-103

+6.5

LONG

L 72-74

+1.5

PSU

L 67-90

+0.5

NORF

W 69-67

+3.5

COPP

W 88-77

+4.5

MORG

W 89-78

+7.5

HOW

L 69-83

−11.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

+34.5

UVA

L 62-81

−8.5

APP

L 54-76

−6.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

DAY

L 55-74

−17.5

UPST

L 67-82

+0.5

JMU

L 62-67

−14.5

NCAT

L 54-69

−19.5

L 67-103

+21.5

LONG

L 72-74

−0.5

PSU

L 67-90

+6.5

NORF

W 69-67

−5.5

COPP

W 88-77

+21.5

MORG

W 89-78

+25.5

HOW

L 69-83

+10.5

over 7under 8avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

SC State

19 games played

Straight up

3-16

16% wins

Against the spread

8-11

42% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-10

47% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1616%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

8-1142%

L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-1047%

U U U U U O O O U U O O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 23	@SDAK	L 81-82	+15.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 25	@MIZ	L 66-98	+34.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 29	@WIN	L 79-101	+20.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 5	@BCU	L 59-80	+13.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 8	@CHSO	L 44-84	+12.5	L −27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 12	@QUC	L 78-102	+18.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 16	vsUPST	L 72-78	+10.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@SC	L 70-95	+31.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	@TENN	L 54-105	+44.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsHOW	W 58-57	+8.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 115
Jan 10	@MORG	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	@COPP	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsNORF	L 82-89	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 26	vsDSU	W 70-64	-1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+14.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+2.5

WIN

L 79-101

−1.5

BCU

L 59-80

−7.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−27.5

QUC

L 78-102

−5.5

UPST

L 72-78

+4.5

L 70-95

+6.5

TENN

L 54-105

−6.5

HOW

W 58-57

+9.5

MORG

L 67-72

−0.5

COPP

W 74-72

+3.5

NORF

L 82-89

−1.5

DSU

W 70-64

+4.5

covered 8didn’t cover 11avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+2.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+3.5

WIN

L 79-101

+22.5

BCU

L 59-80

−9.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−28.5

QUC

L 78-102

+22.5

UPST

L 72-78

+2.5

L 70-95

+15.5

TENN

L 54-105

+11.5

HOW

W 58-57

−29.5

MORG

L 67-72

−8.5

COPP

W 74-72

+5.5

NORF

L 82-89

+31.5

DSU

W 70-64

−1.5

over 9under 10avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SC State has the better starters

Position by position: NC Central 0, SC State 1, even 4

NC CentralBetterSC State

G T. Brown TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11

Even

G D. Jackson TR6.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 24

G R. Archey3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked

No call

G N. Treadwell9.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 25

F C. Meeks TR5.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 6

Even

F D. Hodge2.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 1

F T. Mason TR5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32

SCSTSmall

F C. Parker6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53

F M. Vassel TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Tindal2.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 12

NC CentralBetterSC State

NCCU offense345th of 366 · -11.9

Even

SCST defense351st of 366 · -9.8

NCCU defense352nd of 366 · -9.9

Even

SCST offense341st of 366 · -11.6

Backcourt-2.4 · 2 players

NCCUSmall

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-5.2 · 3 players

SCSTSmall

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestNCCU betterSCST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

NC Central

Guards

T. Brown14 min · TRR. Archey8 minD. KaneNewC. SanonNewI. BuckleyNewA. BowserNew

Forwards

C. Meeks29 min · TRT. Mason12 min · TRM. Vassel8 min · TRJ. PriceNewD. DuorNew

Centers

D. MbaetekaNew

SC State

Guards

D. Jackson23 min · TRN. Treadwell23 minB. JacksonNewM. TaylorNewB. HarrisNewC. BarnesNew

Forwards

D. Hodge18 minC. Parker18 minT. Tindal10 minJ. PrettyNewB. AdamsNewA. NGomabieNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NCCU67.6 #322

SCST67.4 #325

Points per possession

NCCU1.02 #308

SCST0.96 #353

Pace (possessions)

NCCU66.9 #282

SCST70.3 #102

Shooting

Effective FG%

NCCU47.5 #328

SCST46.8 #341

3-point %

NCCU32.6 #247

SCST34.0 #173

3-point attempt rate

NCCU33.9 #299

SCST33.3 #312

Free throw rate

NCCU39.3 #72

SCST41.0 #47

Possessions

Turnover rate

NCCU18.2 #285

SCST20.8 #355

Offensive rebound rate

NCCU30.0 #201

SCST31.4 #146

Assists per game

NCCU12.1 #279

SCST12.1 #281

Defense

Points allowed

NCCU77.3 #246

SCST80.6 #327

Points allowed per possession

NCCU1.15 #322

SCST1.15 #318

Opponent effective FG%

NCCU54.5 #317

SCST53.9 #296

Opponent 3-point %

NCCU36.4 #321

SCST33.5 #155

Turnovers forced

NCCU19.8 #27

SCST18.8 #59

Defensive rebound rate

NCCU60.6 #364

SCST62.4 #362

Steals per game

NCCU7.7 #60

SCST6.9 #137

Blocks per game

NCCU3.4 #165

SCST3.8 #98

NCCU		SCST
Scoring
67.6 #322	Points per game	67.4 #325
1.02 #308	Points per possession	0.96 #353
66.9 #282	Pace (possessions)	70.3 #102
Shooting
47.5 #328	Effective FG%	46.8 #341
32.6 #247	3-point %	34.0 #173
33.9 #299	3-point attempt rate	33.3 #312
39.3 #72	Free throw rate	41.0 #47
Possessions
18.2 #285	Turnover rate	20.8 #355
30.0 #201	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #146
12.1 #279	Assists per game	12.1 #281
Defense
77.3 #246	Points allowed	80.6 #327
1.15 #322	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #318
54.5 #317	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #296
36.4 #321	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #155
19.8 #27	Turnovers forced	18.8 #59
60.6 #364	Defensive rebound rate	62.4 #362
7.7 #60	Steals per game	6.9 #137
3.4 #165	Blocks per game	3.8 #98

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC Central

3-12 overall · 3-1 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard69–83
W@ Morgan St89–78
W@ Coppin St88–77
Wvs Norfolk St69–67
L@ Penn State67–90

A week or more of rest.

SC State

3-16 overall · 3-2 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs Delaware St70–64
Lvs Norfolk St82–89
W@ Coppin St74–72
L@ Morgan St67–72
Wvs Howard58–57

5 days since their last game.

NC Central @ SC State

What could decide it: SCST has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

NC Central

SC State

SC State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

NC Central

SC State