Smith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center · at SC State · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 NCCU | This season | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| 3-12 | Record | 3-16 |
| 9-6 | ATS | 8-11 |
| 7-8 | O/U | 9-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects NCCU 76–73 · win probability NCCU 58%
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SCST has more of the edges
NCCU 2, SCST 3 · 2025-26 so far
SCSTBigThree-pointers
NCCU hits 32.6% and allows 36.4%; SCST hits 34.0% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 33.9% and 33.3% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: NCCU plays 66.9 a game (282nd fastest), SCST 70.3 (102nd). Faster games mean more points
SCSTSmallWho is back
Minutes back from last season: NCCU 4%, SCST 34%. Transfers in: NCCU 4, SCST 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
NCCUSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: NCCU 39.3, SCST 41.0. Allowed: NCCU 36.9, SCST 51.9
SCSTSmallHome court
SCST at home. This season: SCST 2-3 at home, NCCU 2-9 away
NCCUSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: NCCU 18.2%, SCST 20.8%. Forced: NCCU 19.8%, SCST 18.8%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: NCCU 4-1 ATS, margin -2.6; SCST 3-2 ATS, margin -0.6
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NCCU 30.0%, SCST 31.4%. Defensive: NCCU 60.6%, SCST 62.4%
Even
SCST offense vs NCCU defense
Offense 341st of 366 against a defense 352nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NCCU has played the 310th-hardest schedule, SCST the 317th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
NCCU offense vs SCST defense
Offense 345th of 366 against a defense 351st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NCCU 47.5 and allows 54.5; SCST 46.8 and allows 53.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | — | NCCU -2.3 | — |
| Total | — | 148.6 | — |
| Projected score | — | NCCU 75.5 · SCST 73.1 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | NCCU -1.5 | — |
| 1H total | 69.6 | — |
| 1H projected score | NCCU 35.6 · SCST 34 | — |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCCU | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| SCST | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
NCCU 5–4 SCSTNCCU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · SCST has won the last 2 meetings · NCCU 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024-25 | NCCU 67 vs SCST 88 | SCST -7.5 | SCST W |
| Mar 6, 2024-25 | NCCU 71 @ SCST 87 | SCST -9.5 | SCST W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | SCST 77 @ NCCU 82 | NCCU -1.5 | NCCU W |
| Mar 7, 2023-24 | SCST 68 @ NCCU 79 | NCCU -7.5 | NCCU W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | NCCU 68 @ SCST 71 | SCST +3.5 | SCST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
NC Central
15 games played
Straight up
3-12
20% wins
Against the spread
9-6
60% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-8
47% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ NCSU | L 66-114 | +31.5 | L −16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | @ UVA | L 62-81 | +34.5 | W +15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 9 | @ APP | L 54-76 | +10.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 14 | @ UNC | L 53-97 | +34.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 22 | @ DAY | L 55-74 | +29.5 | W +10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 25 | @ UPST | L 67-82 | +7.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 3 | @ JMU | L 62-67 | +14.5 | W +9.5 | 143.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 6 | vs NCAT | L 54-69 | +2.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 9 | @ UK | L 67-103 | +42.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs LONG | L 72-74 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 29 | @ PSU | L 67-90 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 3 | vs NORF | W 69-67 | +1.5 | W +3.5 | 141.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 10 | @ COPP | W 88-77 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 12 | @ MORG | W 89-78 | -3.5 | W +7.5 | 141.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 17 | vs HOW | L 69-83 | +2.5 | L −11.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@NCSU
NCSUL 66-114
−16.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 62-81
+15.5
9
@APP
APPL 54-76
−11.5
14
@UNC
UNCL 53-97
−9.5
22
@DAY
DAYL 55-74
+10.5
25
@UPST
UPSTL 67-82
−7.5
3
@JMU
JMUL 62-67
+9.5
6
vsNCAT
NCATL 54-69
−12.5
9
@UK
UKL 67-103
+6.5
20
vsLONG
LONGL 72-74
+1.5
29
@PSU
PSUL 67-90
+0.5
3
vsNORF
NORFW 69-67
+3.5
10
@COPP
COPPW 88-77
+4.5
12
@MORG
MORGW 89-78
+7.5
17
vsHOW
HOWL 69-83
−11.5
covered 9didn’t cover 6avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@NCSU
NCSUL 66-114
+34.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 62-81
−8.5
9
@APP
APPL 54-76
−6.5
14
@UNC
UNCL 53-97
−9.5
22
@DAY
DAYL 55-74
−17.5
25
@UPST
UPSTL 67-82
+0.5
3
@JMU
JMUL 62-67
−14.5
6
vsNCAT
NCATL 54-69
−19.5
9
@UK
UKL 67-103
+21.5
20
vsLONG
LONGL 72-74
−0.5
29
@PSU
PSUL 67-90
+6.5
3
vsNORF
NORFW 69-67
−5.5
10
@COPP
COPPW 88-77
+21.5
12
@MORG
MORGW 89-78
+25.5
17
vsHOW
HOWL 69-83
+10.5
over 7under 8avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
SC State
19 games played
Straight up
3-16
16% wins
Against the spread
8-11
42% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-10
47% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ LOU | L 45-104 | +35.5 | L −23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 7 | @ SAM | L 72-82 | +14.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 10 | @NCAT | L 62-85 | +2.5 | L −20.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | @ COFC | L 61-88 | +18.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs UTC | L 66-78 | +11.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 23 | @ SDAK | L 81-82 | +15.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 25 | @ MIZ | L 66-98 | +34.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 29 | @ WIN | L 79-101 | +20.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 5 | @ BCU | L 59-80 | +13.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 8 | @ CHSO | L 44-84 | +12.5 | L −27.5 | 156.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 12 | @ QUC | L 78-102 | +18.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 16 | vsUPST | L 72-78 | +10.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 22 | @ SC | L 70-95 | +31.5 | W +6.5 | 149.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 30 | @ TENN | L 54-105 | +44.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | vsHOW | W 58-57 | +8.5 | W +9.5 | 144.5 | U 115 |
| Jan 10 | @MORG | L 67-72 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 12 | @COPP | W 74-72 | +1.5 | W +3.5 | 140.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 17 | vsNORF | L 82-89 | +5.5 | L −1.5 | 139.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 26 | vs DSU | W 70-64 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 135.5 | U 134 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@LOU
LOUL 45-104
−23.5
7
@SAM
SAML 72-82
+4.5
10
@NCAT
NCATL 62-85
−20.5
14
@COFC
COFCL 61-88
−8.5
19
vsUTC
UTCL 66-78
−0.5
23
@SDAK
SDAKL 81-82
+14.5
25
@MIZ
MIZL 66-98
+2.5
29
@WIN
WINL 79-101
−1.5
5
@BCU
BCUL 59-80
−7.5
8
@CHSO
CHSOL 44-84
−27.5
12
@QUC
QUCL 78-102
−5.5
16
vsUPST
UPSTL 72-78
+4.5
22
@SC
SCL 70-95
+6.5
30
@TENN
TENNL 54-105
−6.5
3
vsHOW
HOWW 58-57
+9.5
10
@MORG
MORGL 67-72
−0.5
12
@COPP
COPPW 74-72
+3.5
17
vsNORF
NORFL 82-89
−1.5
26
vsDSU
DSUW 70-64
+4.5
covered 8didn’t cover 11avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@LOU
LOUL 45-104
−10.5
7
@SAM
SAML 72-82
−0.5
10
@NCAT
NCATL 62-85
−12.5
14
@COFC
COFCL 61-88
−7.5
19
vsUTC
UTCL 66-78
−10.5
23
@SDAK
SDAKL 81-82
+2.5
25
@MIZ
MIZL 66-98
+3.5
29
@WIN
WINL 79-101
+22.5
5
@BCU
BCUL 59-80
−9.5
8
@CHSO
CHSOL 44-84
−28.5
12
@QUC
QUCL 78-102
+22.5
16
vsUPST
UPSTL 72-78
+2.5
22
@SC
SCL 70-95
+15.5
30
@TENN
TENNL 54-105
+11.5
3
vsHOW
HOWW 58-57
−29.5
10
@MORG
MORGL 67-72
−8.5
12
@COPP
COPPW 74-72
+5.5
17
vsNORF
NORFL 82-89
+31.5
26
vsDSU
DSUW 70-64
−1.5
over 9under 10avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
SC State has the better starters
Position by position: NC Central 0, SC State 1, even 4
NC CentralBetterSC State
G T. Brown TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 11
=Even
G D. Jackson TR6.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 24
G R. Archey3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast
Not ranked
=No call
G N. Treadwell9.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 25
F C. Meeks TR5.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 6
=Even
F D. Hodge2.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 1
F T. Mason TR5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast
Score 32
→SCSTSmall
F C. Parker6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 53
F M. Vassel TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast
Not ranked
=No call
F T. Tindal2.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast
Score 12
NC CentralBetterSC State
NCCU offense345th of 366 · -11.9
=Even
SCST defense351st of 366 · -9.8
NCCU defense352nd of 366 · -9.9
=Even
SCST offense341st of 366 · -11.6
Backcourt-2.4 · 2 players
←NCCUSmall
Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt-5.2 · 3 players
→SCSTSmall
Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
=No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestNCCU betterSCST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
NC CentralGuards
T. Brown14 min · TRR. Archey8 minD. KaneNewC. SanonNewI. BuckleyNewA. BowserNew
Forwards
C. Meeks29 min · TRT. Mason12 min · TRM. Vassel8 min · TRJ. PriceNewD. DuorNew
Centers
D. MbaetekaNew
SC StateGuards
D. Jackson23 min · TRN. Treadwell23 minB. JacksonNewM. TaylorNewB. HarrisNewC. BarnesNew
Forwards
D. Hodge18 minC. Parker18 minT. Tindal10 minJ. PrettyNewB. AdamsNewA. NGomabieNew
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
NCCU67.6 #322SCST67.4 #325Points per possession
NCCU1.02 #308SCST0.96 #353Pace (possessions)
NCCU66.9 #282SCST70.3 #102Shooting
Effective FG%
NCCU47.5 #328SCST46.8 #3413-point %
NCCU32.6 #247SCST34.0 #1733-point attempt rate
NCCU33.9 #299SCST33.3 #312Free throw rate
NCCU39.3 #72SCST41.0 #47Possessions
Turnover rate
NCCU18.2 #285SCST20.8 #355Offensive rebound rate
NCCU30.0 #201SCST31.4 #146Assists per game
NCCU12.1 #279SCST12.1 #281Defense
Points allowed
NCCU77.3 #246SCST80.6 #327Points allowed per possession
NCCU1.15 #322SCST1.15 #318Opponent effective FG%
NCCU54.5 #317SCST53.9 #296Opponent 3-point %
NCCU36.4 #321SCST33.5 #155Turnovers forced
NCCU19.8 #27SCST18.8 #59Defensive rebound rate
NCCU60.6 #364SCST62.4 #362Steals per game
NCCU7.7 #60SCST6.9 #137Blocks per game
NCCU3.4 #165SCST3.8 #98| NCCU | SCST | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 67.6 #322 | Points per game | 67.4 #325 |
| 1.02 #308 | Points per possession | 0.96 #353 |
| 66.9 #282 | Pace (possessions) | 70.3 #102 |
| Shooting | ||
| 47.5 #328 | Effective FG% | 46.8 #341 |
| 32.6 #247 | 3-point % | 34.0 #173 |
| 33.9 #299 | 3-point attempt rate | 33.3 #312 |
| 39.3 #72 | Free throw rate | 41.0 #47 |
| Possessions | ||
| 18.2 #285 | Turnover rate | 20.8 #355 |
| 30.0 #201 | Offensive rebound rate | 31.4 #146 |
| 12.1 #279 | Assists per game | 12.1 #281 |
| Defense | ||
| 77.3 #246 | Points allowed | 80.6 #327 |
| 1.15 #322 | Points allowed per possession | 1.15 #318 |
| 54.5 #317 | Opponent effective FG% | 53.9 #296 |
| 36.4 #321 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.5 #155 |
| 19.8 #27 | Turnovers forced | 18.8 #59 |
| 60.6 #364 | Defensive rebound rate | 62.4 #362 |
| 7.7 #60 | Steals per game | 6.9 #137 |
| 3.4 #165 | Blocks per game | 3.8 #98 |
NC Central
3-12 overall · 3-1 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Howard69–83
- W@ Morgan St89–78
- W@ Coppin St88–77
- Wvs Norfolk St69–67
- L@ Penn State67–90
A week or more of rest.
SC State
3-16 overall · 3-2 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Delaware St70–64
- Lvs Norfolk St82–89
- W@ Coppin St74–72
- L@ Morgan St67–72
- Wvs Howard58–57
5 days since their last game.