McKale Center at ALKEME Arena · at Arizona · Conference game
Closing line
ARIZ -17.5✓ ARIZ covered by 7.5
ARIZ -17.5✓ ARIZ covered by 7.5Closing total171.5Over by 5.5
 KSU | This season | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| 9-5 | Record | 14-0 |
| 6-8 | ATS | 8-6 |
| 8-6 | O/U | 8-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: KSU 73–92 ARIZ · ✓ ARIZ (95%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 36 | 40 | 76 |
| ARIZ | 51 | 50 | 101 |
1st half: KSU 36, ARIZ 51 (ARIZ by 15). The model had ARIZ by 10.8 and a total of 77.2 (actual 87).
Team stats
| KSU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-77 34% | Field goals | 34-69 49% |
| 8-36 22% | 3-pointers | 3-16 19% |
| 16-19 84% | Free throws | 30-39 77% |
| 32 12 off | Rebounds | 55 15 off |
| 14 | Assists | 17 |
| 6 | Steals | 8 |
| 4 | Blocks | 8 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 29 | Fouls | 19 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 56 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 26 |
Players
| KSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Haggerty G | 32 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 8-20 | 2-6 |
| Nate Johnson G | 29 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 3-13 | 2-5 |
| Elias Rapieque F | 19 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Abdi Bashir Jr. G | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-8 | 0-5 |
| Khamari McGriff F | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| David Castillo G | 22 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-6 |
| Taj Manning F | 19 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Dorin Buca C | 17 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5-7 | 2-2 |
| Andrej Kostic G | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| CJ Jones G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Marcus Johnson F | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Mobi Ikegwuruka F | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Exavier Wilson, Stephen Osei
| ARIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Burries G | 29 | 28 | 9 | 4 | 12-16 | 1-5 |
| Motiejus Krivas C | 29 | 25 | 12 | 0 | 7-10 | 0-1 |
| Jaden Bradley G | 28 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 3-10 | 1-1 |
| Koa Peat F | 26 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 6-11 | 1-2 |
| Ivan Kharchenkov F | 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Anthony Dell'Orso G | 20 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-8 | 0-5 |
| Tobe Awaka F | 19 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 2-8 | 0-0 |
| Dwayne Aristode F | 13 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Sidi Gueye C | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Addison Arnold G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Sven Djopmo G | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jackson Cook G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jackson Francois G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Evan Nelson G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Mabil Mawut, Bryce James
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketARIZ -17.5
ModelARIZ -18.3
Model edgeARIZ +0.8
W ARIZ covered
Total
Market171.5
Model164.8
Model edgeUnder 6.7
L Over
Projected score
KSU 73.2 · ARIZ 91.6
KSU 76 · ARIZ 101
Win probability
ARIZ 95%
1st half
Spread
ARIZ -10.8
ARIZ -15.0
Total
77.2
87 points
Projected score
KSU 33.2 · ARIZ 44
KSU 36 · ARIZ 51
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARIZ -20.5
3 → KSU
CloseARIZ -17.5
3 pts toward KSU
Total
Open167.5
▲ 4
Close171.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
KSU +1100 · ARIZ -2100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARIZ -20.5 · closed ARIZ -17.5 · moved 3 toward KSUmodel ARIZ -18.5
model ARIZ -18.5
Opened 167.5 · closed 171.5 · moved 4 upmodel 165
model 165
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| ARIZ | 10-0 100% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
KSU 1–0 ARIZKSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · KSU 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2024-25 | ARIZ 70 @ KSU 73 | KSU +3.5 | KSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Kansas St
14 games played
Straight up
9-5
64% wins
Against the spread
6-8
43% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs UNCG | W 93-64 | -18.5 | W +10.5 | 148.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 8 | vs BELL | W 98-71 | -28.5 | L −1.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 13 | vs CAL | W 99-96 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 17 | vs TLSA | W 84-83 | -12.5 | L −11.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 20 | vs MSST | W 98-77 | +2.5 | W +23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs NEB | L 85-86 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | @ IU | L 69-86 | +10.5 | L −6.5 | 164.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 1 | vs BGSU | L 66-82 | -12.5 | L −28.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 6 | vs HALL | L 67-78 | -2.5 | L −13.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 8 | vs MVSU | W 108-49 | -38.5 | W +20.5 | 160.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 13 | @ CREI | W 83-76 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 20 | vs SDAK | W 106-76 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 176.5 | O 182 |
| Dec 28 | vs ULM | W 94-85 | -32.5 | L −23.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vs BYU | L 73-83 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 174.5 | U 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsUNCG
UNCGW 93-64
+10.5
8
vsBELL
BELLW 98-71
−1.5
13
vsCAL
CALW 99-96
−3.5
17
vsTLSA
TLSAW 84-83
−11.5
20
vsMSST
MSSTW 98-77
+23.5
21
vsNEB
NEBL 85-86
+0.5
25
@IU
IUL 69-86
−6.5
1
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-82
−28.5
6
vsHALL
HALLL 67-78
−13.5
8
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-49
+20.5
13
@CREI
CREIW 83-76
+11.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 106-76
+8.5
28
vsULM
ULMW 94-85
−23.5
3
vsBYU
BYUL 73-83
−2.5
covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsUNCG
UNCGW 93-64
+8.5
8
vsBELL
BELLW 98-71
+0.5
13
vsCAL
CALW 99-96
+30.5
17
vsTLSA
TLSAW 84-83
+6.5
20
vsMSST
MSSTW 98-77
+10.5
21
vsNEB
NEBL 85-86
+2.5
25
@IU
IUL 69-86
−9.5
1
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-82
−11.5
6
vsHALL
HALLL 67-78
−3.5
8
vsMVSU
MVSUW 108-49
−3.5
13
@CREI
CREIW 83-76
−0.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 106-76
+5.5
28
vsULM
ULMW 94-85
+9.5
3
vsBYU
BYUL 73-83
−18.5
over 8under 6avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arizona
14 games played
Straight up
14-0
100% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg +3.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FLA | W 93-87 | +3.5 | W +9.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UTU | W 93-67 | -33.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 11 | vs NAU | W 84-49 | -35.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 14 | vs UCLA | W 69-65 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 19 | @ CONN | W 71-67 | +4.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs DEN | W 103-73 | -32.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 29 | vs NORF | W 98-61 | -35.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs AUB | W 97-68 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vs ALA | W 96-75 | -2.5 | W +18.5 | 178.5 | U 171 |
| Dec 16 | vs ACU | W 96-62 | -34.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 20 | vs SDSU | W 68-45 | -13.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 113 |
| Dec 22 | vs BCU | W 107-71 | -39.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 178 |
| Dec 29 | vs SDST | W 99-71 | -31.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 3 | @ UTAH | W 97-78 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 162.5 | O 175 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFLA
FLAW 93-87
+9.5
7
vsUTU
UTUW 93-67
−7.5
11
vsNAU
NAUW 84-49
−0.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 69-65
+2.5
19
@CONN
CONNW 71-67
+8.5
24
vsDEN
DENW 103-73
−2.5
29
vsNORF
NORFW 98-61
+1.5
6
vsAUB
AUBW 97-68
+17.5
13
vsALA
ALAW 96-75
+18.5
16
vsACU
ACUW 96-62
−0.5
20
vsSDSU
SDSUW 68-45
+9.5
22
vsBCU
BCUW 107-71
−3.5
29
vsSDST
SDSTW 99-71
−3.5
3
@UTAH
UTAHW 97-78
+1.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFLA
FLAW 93-87
+15.5
7
vsUTU
UTUW 93-67
−2.5
11
vsNAU
NAUW 84-49
−30.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 69-65
−19.5
19
@CONN
CONNW 71-67
−18.5
24
vsDEN
DENW 103-73
+21.5
29
vsNORF
NORFW 98-61
+12.5
6
vsAUB
AUBW 97-68
+2.5
13
vsALA
ALAW 96-75
−7.5
16
vsACU
ACUW 96-62
+12.5
20
vsSDSU
SDSUW 68-45
−40.5
22
vsBCU
BCUW 107-71
+23.5
29
vsSDST
SDSTW 99-71
+10.5
3
@UTAH
UTAHW 97-78
+12.5
over 8under 6avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Kansas St
9-5 overall · 0-1 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs BYU73–83
- Wvs UL Monroe94–85
- Wvs South Dakota106–76
- W@ Creighton83–76
- Wvs Miss Valley St108–49
4 days since their last game.
Arizona
14-0 overall · 1-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Utah97–78
- Wvs S Dakota St99–71
- Wvs Bethune107–71
- Wvs San Diego St68–45
- Wvs Abilene Chrstn96–62
4 days since their last game.