R.W. Harrison HPER Complex · at Miss Valley St · Conference game
Closing line
ALST -13.5✓ ALST covered by 6.5
ALST -13.5✓ ALST covered by 6.5Closing total144.5Over by 13.5
| ALST | This season | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-10 | Record | 0-13 |
| 5-7 | ATS | 7-6 |
| 5-7 | O/U | 7-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ALST 81–70 MVSU · ✓ ALST (84%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALST | 41 | 48 | 89 |
| MVSU | 38 | 31 | 69 |
1st half: ALST 41, MVSU 38 (ALST by 3). The model had ALST by 6.9 and a total of 70.5 (actual 79).
Team stats
| ALST | MVSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-51 53% | Field goals | 22-50 44% |
| 7-18 39% | 3-pointers | 5-15 33% |
| 28-30 93% | Free throws | 20-25 80% |
| 30 9 off | Rebounds | 20 6 off |
| 15 | Assists | 10 |
| 15 | Steals | 9 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 19 | Fouls | 23 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 30 | Fast-break points | 26 |
Players
| ALST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Palesse G | 36 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Micah Simpson G | 35 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 7-14 | 5-9 |
| Jerquarius Stanback F | 32 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Asjon Anderson G | 29 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 4-14 | 1-6 |
| R'Chaun King F | 20 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tyler Byrd G | 23 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Damarien Yates F | 20 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Tyler Mason F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JaSteven Walker, Trey Miller, Damarion Bonds, Damion Cox Jr., Tyler Mack, Kevin Alabi, Jordon Marshall, Mario Andrews
| MVSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamont Sams F | 40 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 9-14 | 2-4 |
| Mike James G | 39 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 4-16 | 1-5 |
| Delkedric Holmes G | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Patrick Punch G | 25 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Daniel Mayfield F | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| X'Zaevion Barnett G | 25 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Mussa Mzein C | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Tyrone Iroghama G | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Chance Sutton F | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: George Ivory III, Derrick Singleton, Samuel Murray, Jonathan Pace, Antonio Sisk
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketALST -13.5
ModelALST -11.3
Model edgeMVSU +2.2
L ALST covered
Total
Market144.5
Model150.4
Model edgeOver 5.9
W Over
Projected score
ALST 80.9 · MVSU 69.6
ALST 89 · MVSU 69
Win probability
ALST 84%
1st half
Spread
ALST -6.9
ALST -3.0
Total
70.5
79 points
Projected score
ALST 38.7 · MVSU 31.8
ALST 41 · MVSU 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenALST -13.5
no move
CloseALST -13.5
No change since the open
Total
Open144.5
no move
Close144.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
ALST -1200 · MVSU +750
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ALST -13.5 · unchangedmodel ALST -11.5
model ALST -11.5
Opened 144.5 · unchangedmodel 150.5
model 150.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALST | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| MVSU | 0-10 0% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
ALST 6–2 MVSUALST leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · ALST has won the last 4 meetings · ALST 4-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024-25 | ALST 79 @ MVSU 56 | MVSU +18.5 | ALST W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | MVSU 55 @ ALST 84 | ALST -21.5 | ALST W |
| Feb 19, 2023-24 | MVSU 46 @ ALST 61 | ALST -15.5 | MVSU W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | ALST 54 @ MVSU 51 | MVSU +10.5 | MVSU W |
| Feb 13, 2022-23 | ALST 70 @ MVSU 76 | MVSU +1.5 | MVSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Alabama St
12 games played
Straight up
2-10
17% wins
Against the spread
5-7
42% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ FSU | L 64-101 | +24.5 | L −12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ UAB | W 77-74 | +19.5 | W +22.5 | 164.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 17 | @ COLO | L 66-94 | +22.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 19 | @ AF | L 64-66 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 138.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 21 | vs IUIN | W 101-80 | +2.5 | W +23.5 | 181.5 | U 181 |
| Nov 23 | vs SIUE | L 68-83 | +1.5 | L −13.5 | 142.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 26 | @ UNM | L 87-93 | +19.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 7 | @ UTM | L 64-74 | +6.5 | L −3.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 11 | @ MIZ | L 77-85 | +26.5 | W +18.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 17 | @ CIN | L 51-88 | +21.5 | L −15.5 | 145.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 22 | @ MEM | L 67-88 | +20.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 29 | @ MSST | L 56-94 | +17.5 | L −20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@FSU
FSUL 64-101
−12.5
11
@UAB
UABW 77-74
+22.5
17
@COLO
COLOL 66-94
−5.5
19
@AF
AFL 64-66
+0.5
21
vsIUIN
IUINW 101-80
+23.5
23
vsSIUE
SIUEL 68-83
−13.5
26
@UNM
UNML 87-93
+13.5
7
@UTM
UTML 64-74
−3.5
11
@MIZ
MIZL 77-85
+18.5
17
@CIN
CINL 51-88
−15.5
22
@MEM
MEML 67-88
−0.5
29
@MSST
MSSTL 56-94
−20.5
covered 5didn’t cover 7avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@FSU
FSUL 64-101
−1.5
11
@UAB
UABW 77-74
−13.5
17
@COLO
COLOL 66-94
+3.5
19
@AF
AFL 64-66
−8.5
21
vsIUIN
IUINW 101-80
−0.5
23
vsSIUE
SIUEL 68-83
+8.5
26
@UNM
UNML 87-93
+31.5
7
@UTM
UTML 64-74
−6.5
11
@MIZ
MIZL 77-85
+6.5
17
@CIN
CINL 51-88
−6.5
22
@MEM
MEML 67-88
+3.5
29
@MSST
MSSTL 56-94
−4.5
over 5under 7avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miss Valley St
13 games played
Straight up
0-13
0% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @UAB | L 55-106 | +34.5 | L −16.5 | 145.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 7 | @ MUR | L 60-108 | +38.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 12 | @ HAW | L 56-88 | +41.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 14 | vs UTU | L 75-81 | +26.5 | W +20.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 15 | vs MAN | L 73-80 | +20.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 22 | @ CSUB | L 70-86 | +21.5 | W +5.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 25 | @ TA&M | L 84-120 | +42.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | O 204 |
| Dec 3 | @ ULM | L 52-66 | +9.5 | L −4.5 | 149.5 | U 118 |
| Dec 8 | @ KSU | L 49-108 | +38.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 16 | vs TAR | L 64-88 | +17.5 | L −6.5 | 142.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 19 | @FSU | L 49-96 | +40.5 | L −6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | @ WVU | L 51-86 | +42.5 | W +7.5 | 137.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | @ OU | L 69-93 | +44.5 | W +20.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@UAB
UABL 55-106
−16.5
7
@MUR
MURL 60-108
−9.5
12
@HAW
HAWL 56-88
+9.5
14
vsUTU
UTUL 75-81
+20.5
15
vsMAN
MANL 73-80
+13.5
22
@CSUB
CSUBL 70-86
+5.5
25
@TA&M
TA&ML 84-120
+6.5
3
@ULM
ULML 52-66
−4.5
8
@KSU
KSUL 49-108
−20.5
16
vsTAR
TARL 64-88
−6.5
19
@FSU
FSUL 49-96
−6.5
22
@WVU
WVUL 51-86
+7.5
29
@OU
OUL 69-93
+20.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@UAB
UABL 55-106
+15.5
7
@MUR
MURL 60-108
+8.5
12
@HAW
HAWL 56-88
−7.5
14
vsUTU
UTUL 75-81
+10.5
15
vsMAN
MANL 73-80
−1.5
22
@CSUB
CSUBL 70-86
+17.5
25
@TA&M
TA&ML 84-120
+49.5
3
@ULM
ULML 52-66
−31.5
8
@KSU
KSUL 49-108
−3.5
16
vsTAR
TARL 64-88
+9.5
19
@FSU
FSUL 49-96
−19.5
22
@WVU
WVUL 51-86
−0.5
29
@OU
OUL 69-93
+8.5
over 7under 6avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Alabama St
2-10 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Mississippi St56–94
- L@ Memphis67–88
- L@ Cincinnati51–88
- L@ Missouri77–85
- L@ UT Martin64–74
5 days since their last game.
Miss Valley St
0-13 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Oklahoma69–93
- L@ West Virginia51–86
- L@ Florida St49–96
- Lvs Tarleton St64–88
- L@ Kansas St49–108
5 days since their last game.