State Farm Center · at Illinois · Conference game
Closing line
ILL -15.5✓ MINN covered by 5.5
ILL -15.5✓ MINN covered by 5.5Closing total142.5Over by 1.5
 MINN | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 10-7 | Record | 14-3 |
| 6-11 | ATS | 11-6 |
| 5-12 | O/U | 5-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MINN 64–80 ILL · ✓ ILL (92%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MINN | 34 | 33 | 67 |
| ILL | 34 | 43 | 77 |
1st half: MINN 34, ILL 34 (tied). The model had ILL by 9.4 and a total of 67.5 (actual 68).
Team stats
| MINN | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-65 40% | Field goals | 24-59 41% |
| 12-35 34% | 3-pointers | 13-35 37% |
| 3-3 100% | Free throws | 16-19 84% |
| 31 11 off | Rebounds | 42 17 off |
| 16 | Assists | 16 |
| 7 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 16 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| MINN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Tyson G | 39 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6-13 | 1-3 |
| Bobby Durkin F | 39 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
| Langston Reynolds G | 37 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 5-8 | 1-3 |
| Isaac Asuma G | 36 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
| Jaylen Crocker-Johnson F | 29 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 8-18 | 5-12 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Grayson Grove F | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Kai Shinholster G | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
Did not play: RJ Spencer, Maximus Gizzi, Max Lorenson, Robert Vaihola, Chance Stephens, Chansey Willis Jr., Nehemiah Turner, BJ Omot
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 38 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 5-12 | 4-8 |
| David Mirkovic F | 32 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 4-10 | 3-5 |
| Kylan Boswell G | 30 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 26 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-4 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 22 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jake Davis F | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 18 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 5-8 | 2-5 |
| Ben Humrichous F | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Jason Jakstys, Blake Fagbemi, Brandon Lee, Ty Rodgers, AJ Redd
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -15.5
no move
CloseILL -15.5
No change since the open
Total
Open138.5
▲ 4
Close142.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
MINN +900 · ILL -1600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -15.5 · unchangedmodel ILL -16
model ILL -16
Opened 138.5 · closed 142.5 · moved 4 upmodel 144
model 144
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ILL -15.5 | ILL -15.9 | ILL +0.4 | L MINN covered |
| Total | 142.5 | 144.1 | Over 1.6 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | MINN 64.1 · ILL 80 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ILL -9.4 | PK |
| 1H total | 67.5 | 68 |
| 1H projected score | MINN 29.1 · ILL 38.4 | MINN 34 · ILL 34 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MINN | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| ILL | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MINN 0–5 ILLILL leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · ILL has won the last 5 meetings · MINN 2-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2024-25 | ILL 95 @ MINN 74 | MINN +7.5 | ILL W |
| Feb 28, 2023-24 | MINN 97 @ ILL 105 | ILL -12.5 | MINN W |
| Feb 20, 2022-23 | MINN 69 @ ILL 78 | ILL -13.5 | MINN W |
| Jan 16, 2022-23 | ILL 78 @ MINN 60 | MINN +8.5 | ILL W |
| Jan 4, 2021-22 | ILL 76 @ MINN 53 | MINN +6.5 | ILL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Minnesota
17 games played
Straight up
10-7
59% wins
Against the spread
6-11
35% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-12
29% overs · avg −4.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs GWEB | W 87-60 | -28.5 | L −1.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 8 | vs ALCN | W 95-50 | -31.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 12 | @ MIZ | L 60-83 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 15 | vs GB | W 72-65 | -25.5 | L −18.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 18 | vs CHST | W 66-54 | -27.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 22 | vs SF | L 65-77 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs STAN | L 68-72 | +2.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 28 | vs SCU | L 75-86 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 3 | vs IU | W 73-64 | +7.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 10 | @ PUR | L 57-85 | +19.5 | L −8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 14 | vs TXSO | W 89-53 | -21.5 | W +14.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 21 | vs CAM | W 78-50 | -13.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 29 | vs FDU | W 60-43 | -25.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 103 |
| Jan 3 | @ NU | W 84-78 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 6 | vs IOWA | W 70-67 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 130.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 9 | vs USC | L 69-70 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 13 | vs WIS | L 75-78 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsGWEB
GWEBW 87-60
−1.5
8
vsALCN
ALCNW 95-50
+13.5
12
@MIZ
MIZL 60-83
−15.5
15
vsGB
GBW 72-65
−18.5
18
vsCHST
CHSTW 66-54
−15.5
22
vsSF
SFL 65-77
−13.5
27
vsSTAN
STANL 68-72
−1.5
28
vsSCU
SCUL 75-86
−5.5
3
vsIU
IUW 73-64
+16.5
10
@PUR
PURL 57-85
−8.5
14
vsTXSO
TXSOW 89-53
+14.5
21
vsCAM
CAMW 78-50
+14.5
29
vsFDU
FDUW 60-43
−8.5
3
@NU
NUW 84-78
+10.5
6
vsIOWA
IOWAW 70-67
+7.5
9
vsUSC
USCL 69-70
−4.5
13
vsWIS
WISL 75-78
−1.5
covered 6didn’t cover 11avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsGWEB
GWEBW 87-60
−1.5
8
vsALCN
ALCNW 95-50
−7.5
12
@MIZ
MIZL 60-83
−15.5
15
vsGB
GBW 72-65
−9.5
18
vsCHST
CHSTW 66-54
−24.5
22
vsSF
SFL 65-77
+1.5
27
vsSTAN
STANL 68-72
−2.5
28
vsSCU
SCUL 75-86
+22.5
3
vsIU
IUW 73-64
−7.5
10
@PUR
PURL 57-85
−1.5
14
vsTXSO
TXSOW 89-53
−2.5
21
vsCAM
CAMW 78-50
−17.5
29
vsFDU
FDUW 60-43
−36.5
3
@NU
NUW 84-78
+23.5
6
vsIOWA
IOWAW 70-67
+6.5
9
vsUSC
USCL 69-70
−8.5
13
vsWIS
WISL 75-78
+6.5
over 5under 12avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
17 games played
Straight up
14-3
82% wins
Against the spread
11-6
65% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-12
29% overs · avg −5.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs NEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vsMIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vs RUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
covered 11didn’t cover 6avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
over 5under 12avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Minnesota
10-7 overall · 3-3 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Wisconsin75–78
- Lvs USC69–70
- Wvs Iowa70–67
- W@ Northwestern84–78
- Wvs FDU60–43
4 days since their last game.
Illinois
14-3 overall · 5-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Northwestern79–68
- W@ Iowa75–69
- Wvs Rutgers81–55
- W@ Penn State73–65
- Wvs Southern90–55
3 days since their last game.