State Farm Center · at Illinois · Conference game
Closing line
ILL -22.5✓ ILL covered by 3.5
ILL -22.5✓ ILL covered by 3.5Closing total149.5Under by 13.5
 RUTG | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 8-7 | Record | 11-3 |
| 5-10 | ATS | 8-6 |
| 8-7 | O/U | 4-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: RUTG 65–87 ILL · ✓ ILL (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RUTG | 16 | 39 | 55 |
| ILL | 43 | 38 | 81 |
1st half: RUTG 16, ILL 43 (ILL by 27). The model had ILL by 12.9 and a total of 71.0 (actual 59).
Team stats
| RUTG | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-63 37% | Field goals | 26-59 44% |
| 6-22 27% | 3-pointers | 11-31 35% |
| 3-8 38% | Free throws | 18-21 86% |
| 32 9 off | Rebounds | 45 12 off |
| 8 | Assists | 13 |
| 5 | Steals | 2 |
| 5 | Blocks | 5 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 8 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| RUTG | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harun Zrno G | 27 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4-9 | 3-5 |
| Jamichael Davis G | 24 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-8 | 0-5 |
| Kaden Powers G | 24 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 5-12 | 2-5 |
| Emmanuel Ogbole C | 20 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Dylan Grant F | 15 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Darren Buchanan Jr. G | 24 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| Tariq Francis G | 17 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3-10 | 0-1 |
| Bryce Ruglass Dortch F | 15 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Chris Nwuli F | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Lino Mark G | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Denis Badalau F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Baye Fall C | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Max Fradkin, Dorian Jones, Gevonte Ware
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 32 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 5-12 | 1-4 |
| Kylan Boswell G | 30 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4-7 | 1-4 |
| David Mirkovic F | 26 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 2-8 | 1-4 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 26 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 5-10 | 2-6 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 25 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jake Davis F | 21 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Ben Humrichous F | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Brandon Lee G | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Jason Jakstys C | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Blake Fagbemi G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| AJ Redd G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ty Rodgers
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILL -22.5
ModelILL -21.7
Model edgeRUTG +0.8
L ILL covered
Total
Market149.5
Model151.6
Model edgeOver 2.1
L Under
Projected score
RUTG 64.9 · ILL 86.7
RUTG 55 · ILL 81
Win probability
ILL 97%
1st half
Spread
ILL -12.9
ILL -27.0
Total
71.0
59 points
Projected score
RUTG 29.1 · ILL 41.9
RUTG 16 · ILL 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -21.5
1 → ILL
CloseILL -22.5
1 pt toward ILL
Total
Open144.5
▲ 5
Close149.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
RUTG +2000 · ILL -6500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -21.5 · closed ILL -22.5 · moved 1 toward ILLmodel ILL -21.5
model ILL -21.5
Opened 144.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 5 upmodel 151.5
model 151.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RUTG | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| ILL | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
RUTG 2–4 ILLILL leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · RUTG 2-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | ILL 73 @ RUTG 82 | RUTG +6.5 | RUTG W |
| Jan 21, 2023-24 | RUTG 63 @ ILL 86 | ILL -10.5 | ILL W |
| Dec 2, 2023-24 | ILL 76 @ RUTG 58 | RUTG -1.5 | ILL W |
| Feb 11, 2022-23 | RUTG 60 @ ILL 69 | ILL -5.5 | ILL W |
| Feb 16, 2021-22 | ILL 59 @ RUTG 70 | RUTG +4 | RUTG W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Rutgers
15 games played
Straight up
8-7
53% wins
Against the spread
5-10
33% covers · avg −4.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-7
53% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs RID | W 81-53 | -18.5 | W +9.5 | 139.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 10 | vs ME | W 72-60 | -18.5 | L −6.5 | 130.5 | O 132 |
| Nov 14 | vs LEH | W 84-72 | -18.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 18 | vs AMER | W 80-71 | -16.5 | L −7.5 | 143.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs CCSU | L 54-67 | -15.5 | L −28.5 | 137.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 24 | vs TENN | L 60-85 | +14.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vs ND | L 63-68 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNLV | W 80-65 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 2 | vs PUR | L 65-81 | +13.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @ MICH | L 60-101 | +25.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 13 | @ HALL | L 59-81 | +13.5 | L −8.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 20 | vs PENN | W 70-69 | -11.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs DSU | W 65-50 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 135.5 | U 115 |
| Jan 2 | vs OSU | L 73-80 | +9.5 | W +2.5 | 151.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 5 | vs ORE | W 88-85 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 139.5 | O 173 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsRID
RIDW 81-53
+9.5
10
vsME
MEW 72-60
−6.5
14
vsLEH
LEHW 84-72
−6.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 80-71
−7.5
21
vsCCSU
CCSUL 54-67
−28.5
24
vsTENN
TENNL 60-85
−10.5
25
vsND
NDL 63-68
+1.5
27
vsUNLV
UNLVW 80-65
+19.5
2
vsPUR
PURL 65-81
−2.5
6
@MICH
MICHL 60-101
−15.5
13
@HALL
HALLL 59-81
−8.5
20
vsPENN
PENNW 70-69
−10.5
29
vsDSU
DSUW 65-50
−5.5
2
vsOSU
OSUL 73-80
+2.5
5
vsORE
OREW 88-85
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 10avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsRID
RIDW 81-53
−5.5
10
vsME
MEW 72-60
+1.5
14
vsLEH
LEHW 84-72
+19.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 80-71
+7.5
21
vsCCSU
CCSUL 54-67
−16.5
24
vsTENN
TENNL 60-85
+3.5
25
vsND
NDL 63-68
−9.5
27
vsUNLV
UNLVW 80-65
−8.5
2
vsPUR
PURL 65-81
−0.5
6
@MICH
MICHL 60-101
+7.5
13
@HALL
HALLL 59-81
+3.5
20
vsPENN
PENNW 70-69
−11.5
29
vsDSU
DSUW 65-50
−20.5
2
vsOSU
OSUL 73-80
+1.5
5
vsORE
OREW 88-85
+33.5
over 8under 7avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
14 games played
Straight up
11-3
79% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-10
29% overs · avg −5.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vsTENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs NEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
over 4under 10avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Rutgers
8-7 overall · 1-3 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Oregon88–85
- Lvs Ohio State73–80
- Wvs Delaware St65–50
- Wvs Penn70–69
- L@ Seton Hall59–81
3 days since their last game.
Illinois
11-3 overall · 2-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Penn State73–65
- Wvs Southern90–55
- Wvs Missouri91–48
- Lvs Nebraska80–83
- W@ Ohio State88–80
5 days since their last game.