Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 5:00 PM ETWelsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern · Conference game

#70MINNMinnesota84▲ winner

Final

Closing lineNU -4.5✓ MINN covered by 10.5

Closing total138.5Over by 23.5

Season records: Minnesota and Northwestern
MINN	This season	NU
8-5	Record	8-5
4-9	ATS	6-7
2-11	O/U	8-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MINN 66–73 NU · ✗ NU (71%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MINN	34	50	84
NU	34	44	78

1st half: MINN 34, NU 34 (tied). The model had NU by 3.6 and a total of 65.0 (actual 68).

Team stats

MINN		NU
28-51 55%	Field goals	28-57 49%
6-18 33%	3-pointers	6-23 26%
22-26 85%	Free throws	16-20 80%
33 8 off	Rebounds	20 5 off
25	Assists	18
2	Steals	7
1	Blocks	6
11	Turnovers	4
16	Fouls	20
42	Points in paint	38
11	Fast-break points	6

Players

MINN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaac Asuma G	40	18	9	1	6-11	4-7
Cade Tyson G	40	24	5	6	6-13	1-4
Langston Reynolds G	40	13	6	13	4-6	0-0
Bobby Durkin F	28	5	3	1	1-5	0-3
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson F	27	10	2	2	4-9	1-4
Bench
Grayson Grove F	21	12	3	2	6-6	0-0
Kai Shinholster G	4	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Chansey Willis Jr., Max Lorenson, Maximus Gizzi, RJ Spencer, Nehemiah Turner, Robert Vaihola, BJ Omot, Chance Stephens

NU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Martinelli F	37	26	6	1	11-19	1-5
Jayden Reid G	32	19	2	7	6-12	2-6
Angelo Ciaravino G	26	7	3	0	3-5	1-3
Jordan Clayton G	25	0	0	4	0-4	0-3
Tre Singleton F	9	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Arrinten Page F	31	19	3	2	5-10	1-2
Max Green G	18	5	4	0	2-4	1-3
Justin Mullins G	15	2	1	2	1-1	0-0
Jake West G	7	0	0	2	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Phoenix Gill, Cade Bennerman, K.J. Windham, Tyler Kropp, Gus Hurlburt, Blake Smith

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NU -4.5	NU -6.3	NU +1.8	L MINN covered
Total	138.5	138.8	Over 0.3	W Over
Projected score	—	MINN 66.3 · NU 72.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NU -3.6	PK
1H total	65.0	68
1H projected score	MINN 30.7 · NU 34.3	MINN 34 · NU 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN WLWWL	4-9	31%	0-2	1-4
NU LWWWW	6-7	46%	5-3	5-4

Venue/role: MINN away, as underdog; NU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN UUUUU	2-11	15%	8-5
NU OUOUU	8-5	62%	8-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
NU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

MINN 2–5 NUNU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · NU has won the last 3 meetings · MINN 2-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 12, 2024-25	NU 72 vs MINN 64	MINN +3.5	NU W
Feb 25, 2024-25	NU 75 @ MINN 63	MINN -1.5	NU W
Mar 9, 2023-24	MINN 66 @ NU 90	NU -4.5	NU W
Feb 3, 2023-24	NU 66 @ MINN 75	MINN +1.5	MINN W
Jan 28, 2022-23	MINN 61 @ NU 81	NU -12.5	NU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Minnesota

13 games played

Straight up

8-5

62% wins

Against the spread

4-9

31% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-11

15% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-562%

W W L W W L L L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-931%

L W L L L L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-1115%

U U U U U O U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGWEB	W 87-60	-28.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 8	vsALCN	W 95-50	-31.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 12	@MIZ	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 15	vsGB	W 72-65	-25.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 18	vsCHST	W 66-54	-27.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 22	vsSF	L 65-77	-1.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsSTAN	L 68-72	+2.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 28	vsSCU	L 75-86	+5.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsIU	W 73-64	+7.5	W +16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PUR	L 57-85	+19.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 14	vsTXSO	W 89-53	-21.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 142
Dec 21	vsCAM	W 78-50	-13.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 29	vsFDU	W 60-43	-25.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 103

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

+13.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−18.5

CHST

W 66-54

−15.5

L 65-77

−13.5

STAN

L 68-72

−1.5

SCU

L 75-86

−5.5

W 73-64

+16.5

PUR

L 57-85

−8.5

TXSO

W 89-53

+14.5

CAM

W 78-50

+14.5

FDU

W 60-43

−8.5

covered 4didn’t cover 9avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

−7.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−9.5

CHST

W 66-54

−24.5

L 65-77

+1.5

STAN

L 68-72

−2.5

SCU

L 75-86

+22.5

W 73-64

−7.5

PUR

L 57-85

−1.5

TXSO

W 89-53

−2.5

CAM

W 78-50

−17.5

FDU

W 60-43

−36.5

over 2under 11avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northwestern

13 games played

Straight up

8-5

62% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-5

62% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-562%

W W W W L W L L L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-746%

L W W L L L L L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-562%

U U O O O O O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMERC	W 70-47	-26.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 7	vsBU	W 76-52	-17.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 10	vsCLE	W 110-63	-23.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 14	@DEP	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUVA	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 161
Nov 23	vsSC	W 79-77	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 27	vsOKST	L 81-86	-2.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 167
Dec 3	@WIS	L 73-85	+10.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsOSU	L 82-86	+1.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsJKST	W 93-53	-30.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 16	vsVAL	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsBTLR	L 58-61	+3.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 119
Dec 30	vsHOW	W 80-60	-19.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−3.5

W 76-52

+6.5

CLE

W 110-63

+23.5

DEP

W 81-79

−3.5

UVA

L 78-83

−0.5

W 79-77

−2.5

OKST

L 81-86

−7.5

WIS

L 73-85

−1.5

OSU

L 82-86

−2.5

JKST

W 93-53

+9.5

VAL

W 86-70

+1.5

BTLR

L 58-61

+0.5

HOW

W 80-60

+0.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−23.5

W 76-52

−8.5

CLE

W 110-63

+21.5

DEP

W 81-79

+14.5

UVA

L 78-83

+11.5

W 79-77

+9.5

OKST

L 81-86

+7.5

WIS

L 73-85

+2.5

OSU

L 82-86

+12.5

JKST

W 93-53

−0.5

VAL

W 86-70

+10.5

BTLR

L 58-61

−35.5

HOW

W 80-60

−8.5

over 8under 5avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Minnesota @ Northwestern

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Minnesota

Northwestern

Minnesota

Northwestern