Crisler Center · at Michigan · Conference game
Closing line
MICH -22.5✓ MICH covered by 7.5
MICH -22.5✓ MICH covered by 7.5Closing total173.5Under by 11.5
 USC | This season | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 11-1 | Record | 12-0 |
| 6-6 | ATS | 8-4 |
| 8-4 | O/U | 6-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USC 75–96 MICH · ✓ MICH (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 31 | 35 | 66 |
| MICH | 49 | 47 | 96 |
1st half: USC 31, MICH 49 (MICH by 18). The model had MICH by 12.6 and a total of 80.2 (actual 80).
Team stats
| USC | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-58 34% | Field goals | 31-65 48% |
| 5-23 22% | 3-pointers | 6-30 20% |
| 21-33 64% | Free throws | 28-39 72% |
| 35 11 off | Rebounds | 40 11 off |
| 4 | Assists | 17 |
| 5 | Steals | 12 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 21 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 27 | Fouls | 22 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 26 |
Players
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezra Ausar F | 27 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 3-9 | 0-0 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 24 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 23 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 3-11 | 2-6 |
| Jacob Cofie F | 16 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Ryan Cornish G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaden Brownell F | 28 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 6-10 | 2-5 |
| Terrance Williams II F | 25 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Kam Woods G | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Jordan Marsh G | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-6 | 1-4 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 15 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| EJ Neal Jr. G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Brit Burden, Patrick O'Brien, Amarion Dickerson, Jonah Goorin, Alijah Arenas, Rodney Rice
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Cadeau G | 29 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 2-8 | 1-4 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 26 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 10-12 | 1-2 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 18 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-10 | 1-7 |
| Aday Mara C | 17 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey McKenney G | 26 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-3 |
| L.J. Cason G | 24 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Will Tschetter F | 20 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Winters Grady G | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Oscar Goodman F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Malick Kordel C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ricky Liburd, Howard Eisley Jr., Harrison Hochberg, Charlie May
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -22.5
no move
CloseMICH -22.5
No change since the open
Total
Open168.5
▲ 5
Close173.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
USC +1500 · MICH -3600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -22.5 · unchangedmodel MICH -21.5
model MICH -21.5
Opened 168.5 · closed 173.5 · moved 5 upmodel 171
model 171
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MICH -22.5 | MICH -21.3 | USC +1.3 | L MICH covered |
| Total | 173.5 | 171.2 | Under 2.3 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | USC 75 · MICH 96.2 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MICH -12.6 | MICH -18.0 |
| 1H total | 80.2 | 80 |
| 1H projected score | USC 33.8 · MICH 46.4 | USC 31 · MICH 49 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 9-1 90% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
| MICH | 10-0 100% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
USC 0–1 MICHMICH leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · USC 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | MICH 85 @ USC 74 | USC +5.5 | MICH W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
USC
12 games played
Straight up
11-1
92% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-4
67% overs · avg +8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | @ ORE | W 82-77 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs WASH | L 76-84 | -4.5 | L −12.5 | 154.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 9 | @ USD | W 94-81 | -14.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 14 | vs WSU | W 68-61 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 17 | vs UTSA | W 97-70 | -25.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+2.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
−12.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
−1.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−5.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+1.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
2
@ORE
OREW 82-77
+4.5
6
vsWASH
WASHL 76-84
+5.5
9
@USD
USDW 94-81
+16.5
14
vsWSU
WSUW 68-61
−27.5
17
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-70
+9.5
over 8under 4avg +8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan
12 games played
Straight up
12-0
100% wins
Against the spread
8-4
67% covers · avg +12.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-6
50% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vs AUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs RUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vs LAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
covered 8didn’t cover 4avg +12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
over 6under 6avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
USC
11-1 overall · 1-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UTSA97–70
- Wvs Washington St68–61
- W@ San Diego94–81
- Lvs Washington76–84
- W@ Oregon82–77
A week or more of rest.
Michigan
12-0 overall · 2-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs McNeese112–71
- Wvs La Salle102–50
- W@ Maryland101–83
- Wvs Villanova89–61
- Wvs Rutgers101–60
4 days since their last game.