Rider Broncs at Fairfield Stags: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 9, 7:00 PM ETLeo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield · Conference game

#347RIDRider62final

Final

#239FAIRFairfield68▲ winner

Closing lineFAIR -8.5✓ RID covered by 2.5

Closing total145.5Under by 15.5

Season records: Rider and Fairfield
RID	This season	FAIR
0-12	Record	8-7
4-8	ATS	6-9
4-8	O/U	8-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: RID 69–76 FAIR · ✓ FAIR (75%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
RID	22	40	62
FAIR	34	34	68

1st half: RID 22, FAIR 34 (FAIR by 12). The model had FAIR by 4.4 and a total of 67.9 (actual 56).

Team stats

RID		FAIR
24-55 44%	Field goals	22-62 35%
4-16 25%	3-pointers	8-26 31%
10-18 56%	Free throws	16-22 73%
37 10 off	Rebounds	45 17 off
9	Assists	10
3	Steals	3
1	Blocks	1
10	Turnovers	6
18	Fouls	15
28	Points in paint	26
10	Fast-break points	2

Players

RID	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Flash Burton G	40	27	1	1	10-16	1-5
Zion Cruz G	36	19	2	2	8-17	3-7
Antwan Wilson G	18	2	1	2	1-5	0-1
Shemani Fuller F	17	4	3	1	2-3	0-0
Cole McCabe F	11	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Caleb Smith G	26	0	8	2	0-3	0-1
Davis Bynum F	22	8	7	1	3-6	0-1
Mohamad Diallo F	9	1	4	0	0-2	0-0
Jamir McNeil G	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
AB Coulibaly G	6	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Daniel Helterhoff F	5	1	2	0	0-0	0-0
Kristupas Kepežinskas G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Maurizio D'Alessandro, Devean Williams, Xaviel Rodriguez

FAIR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braden Sparks G	36	23	5	3	7-19	5-14
Declan Wucherpfennig G	33	17	11	0	6-10	0-0
Brandon Benjamin F	31	10	13	2	4-10	0-0
Tony Williams G	21	3	1	1	1-4	1-2
Michael Rogan G	18	2	3	0	1-2	0-1
Bench
Deuce Turner G	22	5	3	2	2-10	1-5
Eric Mejia G	19	6	4	1	1-3	1-2
Isaac Munkadi F	9	2	1	0	0-0	0-0
Ryan Zan F	7	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Nasir Rodriguez G	4	0	0	1	0-3	0-2

Did not play: Cam Estevez, Matt Curtis, Luke Davidson, Halon Rawlins, Tanner Ostop, Noah Best, Joe Ganton, Aidan May, Peyton Smith

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FAIR -8.5	FAIR -7.5	RID +1.0	W RID covered
Total	145.5	145.0	Under 0.5	W Under
Projected score	—	RID 68.7 · FAIR 76.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FAIR -4.4	FAIR -12.0
1H total	67.9	56
1H projected score	RID 31.8 · FAIR 36.2	RID 22 · FAIR 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RID LWWLL	4-8	33%	4-4	4-7
FAIR WWLLW	6-9	40%	1-5	3-6

Venue/role: RID away, as underdog; FAIR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
RID UUOUO	4-8	33%	0-12
FAIR UOUOO	8-7	53%	8-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RID	0-10 0%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
FAIR	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

RID 2–6 FAIRFAIR leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · FAIR has won the last 4 meetings · RID 1-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 21, 2024-25	FAIR 69 @ RID 49	RID -3.5	FAIR W
Dec 4, 2024-25	RID 75 @ FAIR 78	FAIR -1.5	FAIR W
Feb 8, 2023-24	RID 67 @ FAIR 84	FAIR -4.5	FAIR W
Dec 3, 2023-24	FAIR 88 @ RID 81	RID -4.5	FAIR W
Feb 10, 2022-23	FAIR 57 @ RID 58	RID -4.5	FAIR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rider

12 games played

Straight up

0-12

0% wins

Against the spread

4-8

33% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-8

33% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-120%

L L L L L L L L L L L L

12 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-833%

L L L L L W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-833%

U U O O U U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UVA	L 53-87	+26.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 5	@RUTG	L 53-81	+18.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 18	@TEX	L 65-99	+30.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 164
Nov 20	@HOU	L 45-91	+40.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 25	vsCOPP	L 65-68	-8.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 133
Dec 4	@MRMK	L 66-68	+9.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	@QUIN	L 58-72	+14.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 130
Dec 9	vsBUCK	L 38-51	+2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 16	@DEL	L 57-65	+8.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 122
Dec 22	@VCU	L 79-100	+30.5	W +9.5	145.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMAN	L 71-74	+2.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsSIE	L 65-74	+8.5	L −0.5	135.5	O 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−7.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−9.5

TEX

L 65-99

−3.5

HOU

L 45-91

−5.5

COPP

L 65-68

−11.5

MRMK

L 66-68

+7.5

QUIN

L 58-72

+0.5

BUCK

L 38-51

−10.5

DEL

L 57-65

+0.5

VCU

L 79-100

+9.5

MAN

L 71-74

−0.5

SIE

L 65-74

−0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−8.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−5.5

TEX

L 65-99

+20.5

HOU

L 45-91

+1.5

COPP

L 65-68

−6.5

MRMK

L 66-68

−4.5

QUIN

L 58-72

−17.5

BUCK

L 38-51

−46.5

DEL

L 57-65

−7.5

VCU

L 79-100

+33.5

MAN

L 71-74

−2.5

SIE

L 65-74

+3.5

over 4under 8avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fairfield

15 games played

Straight up

8-7

53% wins

Against the spread

6-9

40% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-7

53% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-753%

L W L W W W L W L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-940%

W W L L L W L L L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-753%

U U O O O O O U U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PSU	L 68-76	+15.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NJIT	W 74-53	-6.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 10	@HALL	L 59-82	+14.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 14	vsSTO	W 73-71	-6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 144
Nov 16	vsL-MD	W 85-82	-5.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 167
Nov 22	@LEM	W 97-83	-1.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsCOLU	L 77-106	+3.5	L −25.5	150.5	O 183
Nov 30	vsUNH	W 72-68	-9.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 5	@MAN	L 66-70	-1.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 136
Dec 7	@MRMK	L 63-74	+3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 14	vsMONM	W 73-65	+2.5	W +10.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 18	@CCSU	W 84-70	+6.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 154
Dec 29	vsSPU	L 66-70	-2.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 136
Jan 2	@CAN	L 81-85	-6.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 166
Jan 4	@NIA	W 83-75	-3.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

+7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

+14.5

HALL

L 59-82

−8.5

STO

W 73-71

−4.5

L-MD

W 85-82

−2.5

LEM

W 97-83

+12.5

COLU

L 77-106

−25.5

UNH

W 72-68

−5.5

MAN

L 66-70

−5.5

MRMK

L 63-74

−7.5

MONM

W 73-65

+10.5

CCSU

W 84-70

+20.5

SPU

L 66-70

−6.5

CAN

L 81-85

−10.5

NIA

W 83-75

+4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

−7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

−18.5

HALL

L 59-82

+3.5

STO

W 73-71

+0.5

L-MD

W 85-82

+31.5

LEM

W 97-83

+34.5

COLU

L 77-106

+32.5

UNH

W 72-68

−7.5

MAN

L 66-70

−19.5

MRMK

L 63-74

−7.5

MONM

W 73-65

−5.5

CCSU

W 84-70

+10.5

SPU

L 66-70

−4.5

CAN

L 81-85

+25.5

NIA

W 83-75

+19.5

over 8under 7avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rider @ Fairfield

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Rider

Fairfield

Rider

Fairfield