Finneran Pavilion · at Villanova · Conference game
Closing line
VILL -8.5✓ VILL covered by 5.5
VILL -8.5✓ VILL covered by 5.5Closing total157.5Over by 2.5
 PROV | This season | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| 9-12 | Record | 15-5 |
| 12-9 | ATS | 13-7 |
| 15-6 | O/U | 11-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PROV 78–85 VILL · ✓ VILL (72%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | 28 | 45 | 73 |
| VILL | 45 | 42 | 87 |
1st half: PROV 28, VILL 45 (VILL by 17). The model had VILL by 3.8 and a total of 76.3 (actual 73).
Team stats
| PROV | VILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-58 48% | Field goals | 30-59 51% |
| 8-23 35% | 3-pointers | 13-29 45% |
| 9-14 64% | Free throws | 14-22 64% |
| 40 11 off | Rebounds | 26 5 off |
| 9 | Assists | 18 |
| 1 | Steals | 9 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 20 |
Players
| PROV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Vaaks G | 33 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 10-18 | 5-11 |
| Ryan Mela G | 32 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse F | 30 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Jaylin Sellers G | 29 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 7-14 | 1-5 |
| Jamier Jones G | 28 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nilavan Daniels G | 22 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Duncan Powell F | 20 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Cole Hargrove F | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Peteris Pinnis F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jason Edwards, Jaylen Harrell, Rich Barron, Daquan Davis, Jack Williams, Corey Floyd Jr.
| VILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acaden Lewis G | 33 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 6-10 | 0-2 |
| Matt Hodge F | 32 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4-12 | 2-6 |
| Tyler Perkins G | 31 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 6-11 | 3-6 |
| Duke Brennan F | 29 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Bryce Lindsay G | 25 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Devin Askew G | 25 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 6-9 | 5-8 |
| Malachi Palmer G | 12 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Braden Pierce C | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Chris Jeffrey G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Zion Stanford, Tafara Gapare, Malcolm Flaggs, Wade Chiddick, Nico Onyekwere
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketVILL -8.5
ModelVILL -6.6
Model edgePROV +1.9
L VILL covered
Total
Market157.5
Model163.0
Model edgeOver 5.5
W Over
Projected score
PROV 78.2 · VILL 84.8
PROV 73 · VILL 87
Win probability
VILL 72%
1st half
Spread
VILL -3.8
VILL -17.0
Total
76.3
73 points
Projected score
PROV 36.2 · VILL 40
PROV 28 · VILL 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVILL -8.5
no move
CloseVILL -8.5
No change since the open
Total
Open157.5
no move
Close157.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
PROV +330 · VILL -425
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VILL -8.5 · unchangedmodel VILL -6.5
model VILL -6.5
Opened 157.5 · unchangedmodel 163
model 163
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
| VILL | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
PROV 3–6 VILLVILL leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · PROV 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025-26 | VILL 88 @ PROV 82 | PROV +2.5 | VILL W |
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | VILL 62 @ PROV 75 | PROV +1.5 | PROV W |
| Jan 17, 2024-25 | PROV 73 @ VILL 75 | VILL -8.5 | PROV W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | VILL 71 @ PROV 60 | PROV -2.5 | VILL W |
| Feb 4, 2023-24 | PROV 50 @ VILL 68 | VILL -4.5 | VILL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Providence
21 games played
Straight up
9-12
43% wins
Against the spread
12-9
57% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-6
71% overs · avg +14.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HC | W 89-79 | -23.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs VT | L 101-107 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | O 208 |
| Nov 11 | vs PENN | W 106-81 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 14 | @ COLO | L 88-97 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 163.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 18 | vs UNH | W 98-66 | -29.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PSU | W 77-65 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs WIS | L 83-104 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs FLA | L 78-90 | +12.5 | W +0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | vs FDU | W 94-64 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs URI | W 90-71 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs BRWN | W 86-79 | -19.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | @ BTLR | L 110-113 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 223 |
| Dec 19 | vs HALL | L 67-72 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | @ SJU | W 77-71 | +14.5 | W +20.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vs CONN | L 98-103 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | @ XAV | L 84-97 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 165.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 13 | vsVILL | L 82-88 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 16 | vs CREI | W 93-88 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 161.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 19 | @ MARQ | L 104-105 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 167.5 | O 209 |
| Jan 24 | vs GTWN | L 78-81 | -5.5 | L −8.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 27 | @CONN | L 81-87 | +15.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
−13.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
−8.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+5.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
−7.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
+8.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
−14.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
+0.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
+3.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+11.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
−12.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+0.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−6.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
+20.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+4.5
10
@XAV
XAVL 84-97
−14.5
13
vsVILL
VILLL 82-88
−3.5
16
vsCREI
CREIW 93-88
+7.5
19
@MARQ
MARQL 104-105
+1.5
24
vsGTWN
GTWNL 78-81
−8.5
27
@CONN
CONNL 81-87
+9.5
covered 12didn’t cover 9avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
+15.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
+50.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+14.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
+21.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
−23.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
+20.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
−1.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
−4.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+1.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
+19.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+58.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−13.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
−18.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+48.5
10
@XAV
XAVL 84-97
+15.5
13
vsVILL
VILLL 82-88
+13.5
16
vsCREI
CREIW 93-88
+19.5
19
@MARQ
MARQL 104-105
+41.5
24
vsGTWN
GTWNL 78-81
−0.5
27
@CONN
CONNL 81-87
+15.5
over 15under 6avg +14.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Villanova
20 games played
Straight up
15-5
75% wins
Against the spread
13-7
65% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-9
55% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BYU | L 66-71 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs QUC | W 94-74 | -17.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs SHU | W 94-60 | -19.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 15 | vs DUQ | W 87-77 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 19 | @ LAS | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 25 | vs ODU | W 89-75 | -22.5 | L −8.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 1 | vs TEM | W 74-56 | -14.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 6 | vsPENN | W 90-63 | -18.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 9 | @ MICH | L 61-89 | +17.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs PITT | W 79-61 | -10.5 | W +7.5 | 138.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 19 | vsWIS | W 76-66 | +3.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 23 | @HALL | W 64-56 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 31 | vs DEP | W 71-66 | -12.5 | L −7.5 | 139.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 3 | @BTLR | W 85-67 | +2.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 7 | vsCREI | L 72-76 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @MARQ | W 76-73 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 13 | @PROV | W 88-82 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 17 | vsSJU | L 79-86 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | vsGTWN | W 66-51 | -8.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 24 | @CONN | L 67-75 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
+4.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+2.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
+14.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
−0.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
+2.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
−8.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
+3.5
6
vsPENN
PENNW 90-63
+8.5
9
@MICH
MICHL 61-89
−10.5
13
vsPITT
PITTW 79-61
+7.5
19
vsWIS
WISW 76-66
+13.5
23
@HALL
HALLW 64-56
+9.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 71-66
−7.5
3
@BTLR
BTLRW 85-67
+20.5
7
vsCREI
CREIL 72-76
−8.5
10
@MARQ
MARQW 76-73
−0.5
13
@PROV
PROVW 88-82
+3.5
17
vsSJU
SJUL 79-86
−4.5
21
vsGTWN
GTWNW 66-51
+6.5
24
@CONN
CONNL 67-75
+3.5
covered 13didn’t cover 7avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
−16.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+17.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
−6.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
+12.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
−19.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
+16.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
−16.5
6
vsPENN
PENNW 90-63
+2.5
9
@MICH
MICHL 61-89
−6.5
13
vsPITT
PITTW 79-61
+1.5
19
vsWIS
WISW 76-66
−10.5
23
@HALL
HALLW 64-56
−15.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 71-66
−2.5
3
@BTLR
BTLRW 85-67
+2.5
7
vsCREI
CREIL 72-76
+5.5
10
@MARQ
MARQW 76-73
+2.5
13
@PROV
PROVW 88-82
+13.5
17
vsSJU
SJUL 79-86
+17.5
21
vsGTWN
GTWNW 66-51
−25.5
24
@CONN
CONNL 67-75
+4.5
over 11under 9avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Providence
9-12 overall · 2-8 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UConn81–87
- Lvs Georgetown78–81
- L@ Marquette104–105
- Wvs Creighton93–88
- Lvs Villanova82–88
3 days since their last game.
Villanova
15-5 overall · 6-3 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UConn67–75
- Wvs Georgetown66–51
- Lvs St John's79–86
- W@ Providence88–82
- W@ Marquette76–73
6 days since their last game.