Madison Square Garden · at St John's · Conference game
Closing line
SJU -14.5✓ PROV covered by 20.5
SJU -14.5✓ PROV covered by 20.5Closing total166.5Under by 18.5
 PROV | This season | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | Record | 9-4 |
| 7-6 | ATS | 6-7 |
| 9-4 | O/U | 5-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PROV 78–92 SJU · ✗ SJU (89%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | 31 | 46 | 77 |
| SJU | 38 | 33 | 71 |
1st half: PROV 31, SJU 38 (SJU by 7). The model had SJU by 8.3 and a total of 79.8 (actual 69).
Team stats
| PROV | SJU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-64 39% | Field goals | 20-71 28% |
| 6-18 33% | 3-pointers | 7-31 23% |
| 21-28 75% | Free throws | 24-37 65% |
| 44 15 off | Rebounds | 51 25 off |
| 9 | Assists | 9 |
| 7 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 9 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 26 | Fouls | 24 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 21 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| PROV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin Sellers G | 37 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 6-16 | 1-4 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse F | 26 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Jamier Jones G | 25 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Jason Edwards G | 25 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3-14 | 1-4 |
| Corey Floyd Jr. G | 20 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Stefan Vaaks G | 28 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 5-9 | 4-6 |
| Ryan Mela G | 19 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Duncan Powell F | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Cole Hargrove F | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Peteris Pinnis F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jaylen Harrell, Rich Barron, Nilavan Daniels, Daquan Davis, Jack Williams
| SJU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joson Sanon G | 36 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1-12 | 1-5 |
| Oziyah Sellers G | 35 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3-10 | 0-4 |
| Zuby Ejiofor F | 34 | 33 | 15 | 2 | 8-16 | 3-6 |
| Bryce Hopkins F | 27 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 3-13 | 1-5 |
| Ian Jackson G | 14 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dylan Darling G | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Dillon Mitchell F | 14 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Lefteris Liotopoulos G | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Ruben Prey F | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Sadiku Ibine Ayo F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Handje Tamba, Kelvin Odih, Casper Pohto, Fotis Konstantinidis, Imran Suljanovic
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSJU -14.5
ModelSJU -14.1
Model edgePROV +0.4
W PROV covered
Total
Market166.5
Model170.6
Model edgeOver 4.1
L Under
Projected score
PROV 78.2 · SJU 92.3
PROV 77 · SJU 71
Win probability
SJU 89%
1st half
Spread
SJU -8.3
SJU -7.0
Total
79.8
69 points
Projected score
PROV 35.8 · SJU 44.1
PROV 31 · SJU 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSJU -12.5
2 → SJU
CloseSJU -14.5
2 pts toward SJU
Total
Open170.5
▼ 4
Close166.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
PROV +800 · SJU -1350
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SJU -12.5 · closed SJU -14.5 · moved 2 toward SJUmodel SJU -14
model SJU -14
Opened 170.5 · closed 166.5 · moved 4 downmodel 170.5
model 170.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROV | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| SJU | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
PROV 4–4 SJUSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · SJU has won the last 2 meetings · PROV 6-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | PROV 66 @ SJU 68 | SJU -13.5 | PROV W |
| Dec 20, 2024-25 | SJU 72 @ PROV 70 | PROV +5.5 | PROV W |
| Feb 13, 2023-24 | SJU 72 @ PROV 75 | PROV -1.5 | PROV W |
| Jan 10, 2023-24 | PROV 73 @ SJU 75 | SJU -7.5 | PROV W |
| Feb 11, 2022-23 | PROV 68 @ SJU 73 | SJU +5.5 | SJU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Providence
13 games played
Straight up
7-6
54% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-4
69% overs · avg +12.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HC | W 89-79 | -23.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs VT | L 101-107 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | O 208 |
| Nov 11 | vs PENN | W 106-81 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 14 | @ COLO | L 88-97 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 163.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 18 | vs UNH | W 98-66 | -29.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PSU | W 77-65 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs WIS | L 83-104 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs FLA | L 78-90 | +12.5 | W +0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | vs FDU | W 94-64 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs URI | W 90-71 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs BRWN | W 86-79 | -19.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | @ BTLR | L 110-113 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 223 |
| Dec 19 | vs HALL | L 67-72 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
−13.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
−8.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+5.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
−7.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
+8.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
−14.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
+0.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
+3.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+11.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
−12.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+0.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−6.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
+15.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
+50.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+14.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
+21.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
−23.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
+20.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
−1.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
−4.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+1.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
+19.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+58.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−13.5
over 9under 4avg +12.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
St John's
13 games played
Straight up
9-4
69% wins
Against the spread
6-7
46% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-8
38% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs QUIN | W 108-74 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 8 | vs ALA | L 96-103 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 172.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 15 | vs W&M | W 93-60 | -28.5 | W +4.5 | 179.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 20 | vs BUCK | W 97-49 | -28.5 | W +19.5 | 158.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 24 | vs ISU | L 82-83 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 25 | vs BAY | W 96-81 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs AUB | L 74-85 | -4.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs MISS | W 63-58 | -13.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 13 | vs IONA | W 91-64 | -28.5 | L −1.5 | 159.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 16 | vs DEP | W 79-66 | -19.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs UK | L 66-78 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 23 | vs HARV | W 85-59 | -26.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 31 | @ GTWN | W 95-83 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsQUIN
QUINW 108-74
+7.5
8
vsALA
ALAL 96-103
−11.5
15
vsW&M
W&MW 93-60
+4.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-49
+19.5
24
vsISU
ISUL 82-83
+1.5
25
vsBAY
BAYW 96-81
+9.5
26
vsAUB
AUBL 74-85
−15.5
6
vsMISS
MISSW 63-58
−8.5
13
vsIONA
IONAW 91-64
−1.5
16
vsDEP
DEPW 79-66
−6.5
20
vsUK
UKL 66-78
−10.5
23
vsHARV
HARVW 85-59
−0.5
31
@GTWN
GTWNW 95-83
+3.5
covered 6didn’t cover 7avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsQUIN
QUINW 108-74
+25.5
8
vsALA
ALAL 96-103
+26.5
15
vsW&M
W&MW 93-60
−26.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-49
−12.5
24
vsISU
ISUL 82-83
+6.5
25
vsBAY
BAYW 96-81
+17.5
26
vsAUB
AUBL 74-85
−7.5
6
vsMISS
MISSW 63-58
−30.5
13
vsIONA
IONAW 91-64
−4.5
16
vsDEP
DEPW 79-66
−2.5
20
vsUK
UKL 66-78
−10.5
23
vsHARV
HARVW 85-59
−1.5
31
@GTWN
GTWNW 95-83
+25.5
over 5under 8avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Providence
7-6 overall · 0-2 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Seton Hall67–72
- L@ Butler110–113
- Wvs Brown86–79
- Wvs Rhode Island90–71
- Wvs FDU94–64
A week or more of rest.
St John's
9-4 overall · 2-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Georgetown95–83
- Wvs Harvard85–59
- Lvs Kentucky66–78
- Wvs DePaul79–66
- Wvs Iona91–64
3 days since their last game.