Tucker Center · at Florida St · Conference game
Closing line
NCSU -4.5✓ NCSU covered by 39.5
NCSU -4.5✓ NCSU covered by 39.5Closing total160.5Over by 21.5
| NCSU | This season | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| 11-5 | Record | 7-8 |
| 8-8 | ATS | 8-7 |
| 8-8 | O/U | 6-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NCSU 83–79 FSU · ✓ NCSU (65%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 56 | 57 | 113 |
| FSU | 31 | 38 | 69 |
1st half: NCSU 56, FSU 31 (NCSU by 25). The model had NCSU by 2.7 and a total of 75.8 (actual 87).
Team stats
| NCSU | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 38-69 55% | Field goals | 22-56 39% |
| 19-35 54% | 3-pointers | 5-23 22% |
| 18-23 78% | Free throws | 20-29 69% |
| 44 11 off | Rebounds | 25 6 off |
| 20 | Assists | 7 |
| 11 | Steals | 5 |
| 7 | Blocks | 2 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 23 | Fouls | 22 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrion Williams F | 32 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 6-15 | 3-7 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 30 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 7-13 | 5-10 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 26 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 6-7 | 0-0 |
| Quadir Copeland G | 18 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Alyn Breed G | 18 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Terrance Arceneaux G | 29 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 5-7 | 2-4 |
| Matt Able G | 24 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 5-11 | 5-7 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 19 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Colt Langdon F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Snell G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Tre Holloman, Scottie Ebube, Jayme Kontuniemi, Zymicah Wilkins, Jerry Deng
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 29 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-6 |
| Martin Somerville G | 25 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| Lajae Jones G | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 4-10 | 1-3 |
| Robert McCray V G | 21 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Alex Steen F | 17 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kobe MaGee G | 23 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 21 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Cam Miles G | 17 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Shah Muhammad F | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| AJ Swinton F | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Alier Maluk F | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jalen Crawford, Max Garcia-Plata, Xavier Osceola
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNCSU -4.5
no move
CloseNCSU -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open162.5
▼ 2
Close160.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
NCSU -198 · FSU +164
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NCSU -4.5 · unchangedmodel NCSU -4.5 matches the line
model NCSU -4.5 = line ✓
Opened 162.5 · closed 160.5 · moved 2 downmodel 162
model 162
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NCSU -4.5 | NCSU -4.3 | FSU +0.2 | L NCSU covered |
| Total | 160.5 | 162.1 | Over 1.6 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | NCSU 83.2 · FSU 78.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | NCSU -2.7 | NCSU -25.0 |
| 1H total | 75.8 | 87 |
| 1H projected score | NCSU 39.3 · FSU 36.6 | NCSU 56 · FSU 31 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| FSU | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
NCSU 2–3 FSUFSU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · NCSU 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024-25 | FSU 74 @ NCSU 84 | NCSU -4.5 | NCSU W |
| Feb 27, 2023-24 | NCSU 83 @ FSU 90 | FSU -3.5 | FSU W |
| Feb 1, 2022-23 | FSU 66 @ NCSU 94 | NCSU -9.5 | NCSU W |
| Mar 5, 2021-22 | NCSU 76 @ FSU 89 | FSU -6 | FSU W |
| Jan 1, 2021-22 | FSU 83 @ NCSU 81 | NCSU +3 | NCSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
NC State
16 games played
Straight up
11-5
69% wins
Against the spread
8-8
50% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-8
50% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vs KU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 21 | vs MISS | W 76-62 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 31 | vs WAKE | W 70-57 | -10.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | vs UVA | L 61-76 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 6 | @ BC | W 79-71 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
+6.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
+2.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−19.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
−3.5
covered 8didn’t cover 8avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
21
vsMISS
MISSW 76-62
−10.5
31
vsWAKE
WAKEW 70-57
−32.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 61-76
−14.5
6
@BC
BCW 79-71
+8.5
over 8under 8avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida St
15 games played
Straight up
7-8
47% wins
Against the spread
8-7
53% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-9
40% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vs JAX | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 30 | @ UNC | L 66-79 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs DUKE | L 87-91 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
+0.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−0.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+12.5
covered 8didn’t cover 7avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
−9.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−21.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+14.5
over 6under 9avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
NC State
11-5 overall · 2-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Boston College79–71
- Lvs Virginia61–76
- Wvs Wake Forest70–57
- Wvs Ole Miss76–62
- Wvs Texas Southern108–72
4 days since their last game.
Florida St
7-8 overall · 0-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Duke87–91
- L@ North Carolina66–79
- Wvs Jacksonville87–63
- Wvs Miss Valley St96–49
- L@ Dayton69–97
A week or more of rest.