Moby Arena · at Colorado St · Conference game
Closing line
CSU -19.5✓ CSU covered by 9.5
CSU -19.5✓ CSU covered by 9.5Closing total133.5Under by 0.5
 AF | This season | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-15 | Record | 10-7 |
| 6-12 | ATS | 10-7 |
| 9-9 | O/U | 10-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: AF 58–77 CSU · ✓ CSU (96%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 21 | 31 | 52 |
| CSU | 38 | 43 | 81 |
1st half: AF 21, CSU 38 (CSU by 17). The model had CSU by 11.4 and a total of 63.0 (actual 59).
Team stats
| AF | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-53 36% | Field goals | 28-54 52% |
| 5-30 17% | 3-pointers | 10-24 42% |
| 9-12 75% | Free throws | 15-23 65% |
| 30 6 off | Rebounds | 37 7 off |
| 8 | Assists | 17 |
| 3 | Steals | 10 |
| 0 | Blocks | 4 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 21 |
Players
| AF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Hobin F | 30 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3-10 | 1-7 |
| Ethan Greenberg G | 27 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Eli Robinson F | 27 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Kam Sanders G | 26 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-4 |
| Wesley Celichowski C | 26 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| A.J. Patterson G | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Justin Hinds G | 16 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Kolby Gilles F | 15 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Chris Catchings G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Sam Imade F | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Elliott Taite G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Riley Dering F | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Keaton Frisch, Kyle Marshall, Brendan Martin, Caleb Walker, Josh Gatete
| CSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Pascarelli G | 27 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3-5 | 3-4 |
| Jase Butler G | 24 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Kyle Jorgensen F | 24 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Brandon Rechsteiner G | 20 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-5 |
| Rashaan Mbemba F | 17 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jevin Muniz G | 24 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Carey Booth F | 21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Jojo McIver G | 20 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Augustinas Kiudulas F | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Jon Mekonnen F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Darnez Slater G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Charlie Dortch F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nikola Djapa, Docker Tedeschi
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCSU -20.5
1 → AF
CloseCSU -19.5
1 pt toward AF
Total
Open134.5
▼ 1
Close133.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
AF +1400 · CSU -3200
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CSU -20.5 · closed CSU -19.5 · moved 1 toward AFmodel CSU -19.5 matches the line
model CSU -19.5 = line ✓
Opened 134.5 · closed 133.5 · moved 1 downmodel 134.5
model 134.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CSU -19.5 | CSU -19.4 | AF +0.1 | L CSU covered |
| Total | 133.5 | 134.4 | Over 0.9 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | AF 57.5 · CSU 76.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | CSU -11.4 | CSU -17.0 |
| 1H total | 63.0 | 59 |
| 1H projected score | AF 25.8 · CSU 37.2 | AF 21 · CSU 38 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 0-10 0% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| CSU | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
AF 1–7 CSUCSU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · CSU has won the last 5 meetings · AF 4-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024-25 | CSU 77 @ AF 55 | AF +12.5 | CSU W |
| Jan 28, 2024-25 | AF 58 @ CSU 79 | CSU -15.5 | CSU W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | CSU 82 @ AF 73 | AF +11.5 | AF W |
| Jan 16, 2023-24 | AF 69 @ CSU 78 | CSU -15.5 | AF W |
| Feb 7, 2022-23 | CSU 69 @ AF 53 | AF -0.5 | CSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Air Force
18 games played
Straight up
3-15
17% wins
Against the spread
6-12
33% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-9
50% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BEL | L 63-79 | +15.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 8 | vs APSU | L 54-74 | +1.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 11 | vs LIU | L 72-76 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 15 | vs M-OH | L 61-76 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALST | W 66-64 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 138.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 21 | vs SIUE | W 77-63 | +2.5 | W +16.5 | 130.5 | O 140 |
| Nov 23 | vs IUIN | W 98-85 | -3.5 | W +9.5 | 175.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 26 | vs UNCO | L 53-71 | +4.5 | L −13.5 | 146.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 29 | vs SDAK | L 63-80 | +3.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 3 | vs PAC | L 65-80 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 134.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 7 | @ NAVY | L 56-61 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 133.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 17 | @ SDSU | L 58-81 | +24.5 | W +1.5 | 135.5 | O 139 |
| Dec 30 | vs WYO | L 56-68 | +14.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 3 | @ UNLV | L 39-67 | +14.5 | L −13.5 | 142.5 | U 106 |
| Jan 6 | vs USU | L 62-99 | +22.5 | L −14.5 | 139.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 10 | vs UNM | L 49-91 | +16.5 | L −25.5 | 138.5 | O 140 |
| Jan 13 | @ SJSU | L 62-70 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 128.5 | O 132 |
| Jan 17 | vs NEV | L 66-81 | +14.5 | L −0.5 | 134.5 | O 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BEL
BELL 63-79
−0.5
8
vsAPSU
APSUL 54-74
−18.5
11
vsLIU
LIUL 72-76
+1.5
15
vsM-OH
M-OHL 61-76
−4.5
19
vsALST
ALSTW 66-64
−0.5
21
vsSIUE
SIUEW 77-63
+16.5
23
vsIUIN
IUINW 98-85
+9.5
26
vsUNCO
UNCOL 53-71
−13.5
29
vsSDAK
SDAKL 63-80
−13.5
3
vsPAC
PACL 65-80
−9.5
7
@NAVY
NAVYL 56-61
+4.5
17
@SDSU
SDSUL 58-81
+1.5
30
vsWYO
WYOL 56-68
+2.5
3
@UNLV
UNLVL 39-67
−13.5
6
vsUSU
USUL 62-99
−14.5
10
vsUNM
UNML 49-91
−25.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUL 62-70
−2.5
17
vsNEV
NEVL 66-81
−0.5
covered 6didn’t cover 12avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BEL
BELL 63-79
−2.5
8
vsAPSU
APSUL 54-74
−8.5
11
vsLIU
LIUL 72-76
+10.5
15
vsM-OH
M-OHL 61-76
−6.5
19
vsALST
ALSTW 66-64
−8.5
21
vsSIUE
SIUEW 77-63
+9.5
23
vsIUIN
IUINW 98-85
+7.5
26
vsUNCO
UNCOL 53-71
−22.5
29
vsSDAK
SDAKL 63-80
−4.5
3
vsPAC
PACL 65-80
+10.5
7
@NAVY
NAVYL 56-61
−16.5
17
@SDSU
SDSUL 58-81
+3.5
30
vsWYO
WYOL 56-68
−22.5
3
@UNLV
UNLVL 39-67
−36.5
6
vsUSU
USUL 62-99
+21.5
10
vsUNM
UNML 49-91
+1.5
13
@SJSU
SJSUL 62-70
+3.5
17
vsNEV
NEVL 66-81
+12.5
over 9under 9avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Colorado St
17 games played
Straight up
10-7
59% wins
Against the spread
10-7
59% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-7
59% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UIW | W 98-64 | -10.5 | W +23.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 9 | vs OMA | W 97-74 | -14.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 12 | vs CP | W 93-79 | -18.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 16 | @ LUC | W 80-67 | -3.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 21 | vs DEN | L 81-83 | -18.5 | L −20.5 | 149.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs VT | L 64-66 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 27 | vs WICH | W 76-70 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 28 | vs USF | W 83-68 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 6 | vs COLO | W 91-86 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 9 | vs DART | W 76-55 | -20.5 | W +0.5 | 153.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 20 | @USU | L 58-100 | +10.5 | L −31.5 | 147.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 30 | vsNEV | L 62-75 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 139.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 3 | @ GCU | W 70-60 | +6.5 | W +16.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 6 | vsUNM | L 70-80 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 9 | vsUNLV | W 70-62 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @ FRES | L 69-79 | -3.5 | L −13.5 | 139.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 16 | @ BOIS | L 73-79 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUIW
UIWW 98-64
+23.5
9
vsOMA
OMAW 97-74
+8.5
12
vsCP
CPW 93-79
−4.5
16
@LUC
LUCW 80-67
+9.5
21
vsDEN
DENL 81-83
−20.5
26
vsVT
VTL 64-66
+2.5
27
vsWICH
WICHW 76-70
+4.5
28
vsUSF
USFW 83-68
+17.5
6
vsCOLO
COLOW 91-86
+3.5
9
vsDART
DARTW 76-55
+0.5
20
@USU
USUL 58-100
−31.5
30
vsNEV
NEVL 62-75
−14.5
3
@GCU
GCUW 70-60
+16.5
6
vsUNM
UNML 70-80
−8.5
9
vsUNLV
UNLVW 70-62
+1.5
13
@FRES
FRESL 69-79
−13.5
16
@BOIS
BOISL 73-79
−0.5
covered 10didn’t cover 7avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUIW
UIWW 98-64
+14.5
9
vsOMA
OMAW 97-74
+17.5
12
vsCP
CPW 93-79
+6.5
16
@LUC
LUCW 80-67
−4.5
21
vsDEN
DENL 81-83
+14.5
26
vsVT
VTL 64-66
−23.5
27
vsWICH
WICHW 76-70
+3.5
28
vsUSF
USFW 83-68
−4.5
6
vsCOLO
COLOW 91-86
+27.5
9
vsDART
DARTW 76-55
−22.5
20
@USU
USUL 58-100
+10.5
30
vsNEV
NEVL 62-75
−2.5
3
@GCU
GCUW 70-60
−13.5
6
vsUNM
UNML 70-80
+6.5
9
vsUNLV
UNLVW 70-62
−19.5
13
@FRES
FRESL 69-79
+8.5
16
@BOIS
BOISL 73-79
+11.5
over 10under 7avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Air Force
3-15 overall · 0-7 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Nevada66–81
- L@ San José St62–70
- Lvs New Mexico49–91
- Lvs Utah State62–99
- L@ UNLV39–67
3 days since their last game.
Colorado St
10-7 overall · 2-5 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Boise St73–79
- L@ Fresno St69–79
- Wvs UNLV70–62
- Lvs New Mexico70–80
- W@ Grand Canyon70–60
4 days since their last game.