Lafayette Leopards at Navy Midshipmen: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 2:00 PM ETAlumni Hall (Navy) · at Navy · Conference game

#310LAFLafayette50final

Final

#199NAVYNavy76▲ winner

Closing lineNAVY -8.5✓ NAVY covered by 17.5

Closing total141.5Under by 15.5

Season records: Lafayette and Navy
LAF	This season	NAVY
3-12	Record	9-5
6-8	ATS	8-6
10-4	O/U	4-10

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LAF 66–77 NAVY · ✓ NAVY (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LAF	20	30	50
NAVY	39	37	76

1st half: LAF 20, NAVY 39 (NAVY by 19). The model had NAVY by 6.3 and a total of 67.0 (actual 59).

Team stats

LAF		NAVY
16-53 30%	Field goals	27-51 53%
7-28 25%	3-pointers	9-21 43%
11-17 65%	Free throws	13-27 48%
35 8 off	Rebounds	41 7 off
11	Assists	19
5	Steals	7
3	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	10
26	Fouls	17
18	Points in paint	34
6	Fast-break points	10

Players

LAF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mark Butler G	30	8	3	2	2-7	0-0
Caleb Williams G	27	5	4	5	1-9	0-6
Andrew Phillips G	27	7	3	1	2-8	2-6
Christian Humphrey-Rembert F	26	9	6	0	3-9	3-7
Shareef Jackson F	18	6	3	2	3-5	0-0
Bench
Ryan Pettit G	17	2	5	0	0-4	0-3
KaiMani Murdock F	12	5	4	0	2-4	1-3
Folabomi Fayemi G	10	3	0	0	1-3	1-2
Misha Bednostin C	9	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Luke Bevilacqua F	8	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Joshua Wyche F	7	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Ashton Wallace G	6	3	1	1	1-2	0-0
Luke Azzinaro F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Justin Vander Baan, Beckett Currie, Malik Rasul, Chris Rubayo, Luka Savicevic, TJ Berger

NAVY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Austin Benigni G	35	17	4	4	7-15	2-5
Jordan Pennick G	34	20	5	3	6-9	5-8
Aidan Kehoe C	32	23	11	3	10-10	0-0
Mike Woods F	27	0	7	2	0-4	0-1
Jinwoo Kim G	26	3	3	4	1-3	1-2
Bench
Cam Cole G	19	3	1	1	1-3	1-3
David Burnett G	13	6	4	2	2-4	0-0
Jerry Ashley Jr. F	2	2	0	0	0-0	0-0
Nyles Howard G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Owen Gray F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Cooper Jackson F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Julian Gabbidon G	2	2	1	0	0-1	0-0
Cam Cormany G	2	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Matt Gaffney G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Sam Krist G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Davyn de Jongh, C.J. Kearns, Luke Morgan, Jordan McConnell, Steven McLeod, Colin Pollock, Reiss Whitaker, Donovan Draper, Tobi Raji, Julien King

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NAVY -8.5	NAVY -10.7	NAVY +2.2	W NAVY covered
Total	141.5	143.1	Over 1.6	L Under
Projected score	—	LAF 66.2 · NAVY 76.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NAVY -6.3	NAVY -19.0
1H total	67.0	59
1H projected score	LAF 30.4 · NAVY 36.7	LAF 20 · NAVY 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAF LWLWL	6-8	43%	5-3	5-6
NAVY LWWWW	8-6	57%	3-3	6-4

Venue/role: LAF away, as underdog; NAVY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAF OOOUO	10-4	71%	3-12
NAVY UUOUU	4-10	29%	9-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAF	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
NAVY	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

LAF 3–5 NAVYNAVY leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · LAF 4-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 8, 2024-25	NAVY 51 @ LAF 61	LAF -1.5	LAF W
Jan 5, 2024-25	LAF 70 @ NAVY 71	NAVY -2.5	LAF W
Feb 28, 2023-24	LAF 58 @ NAVY 62	NAVY -3.5	NAVY W
Jan 13, 2023-24	NAVY 62 @ LAF 78	LAF -1.5	LAF W
Feb 1, 2022-23	NAVY 53 @ LAF 34	LAF +1.5	NAVY W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lafayette

15 games played

Straight up

3-12

20% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-4

71% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1220%

L L L L L L W L W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-843%

W L L W L L W L–W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-471%

O O O O O U U O–U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	@STO	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 28	vsLEM	L 63-76	-4.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsBALL	W 55-37	+1.5	W +19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsMONM	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 5	vsMERC	W 79-71	—	—	—	—
Dec 8	@PENN	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 18	@CLT	L 67-81	+11.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 20	@GT	L 81-95	+16.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 31	vsCOLG	L 77-85	+6.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@L-MD	W 79-64	-1.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 143
Jan 7	vsBU	L 67-83	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

STO

L 70-74

−5.5

LEM

L 63-76

−17.5

BALL

W 55-37

+19.5

MONM

L 74-88

−12.5

PENN

L 72-74

+5.5

CLT

L 67-81

−2.5

L 81-95

+2.5

COLG

L 77-85

−1.5

L-MD

W 79-64

+13.5

L 67-83

−14.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

STO

L 70-74

+2.5

LEM

L 63-76

−12.5

BALL

W 55-37

−48.5

MONM

L 74-88

+20.5

PENN

L 72-74

−4.5

CLT

L 67-81

+10.5

L 81-95

+28.5

COLG

L 77-85

+15.5

L-MD

W 79-64

−9.5

L 67-83

+7.5

over 10under 4avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Navy

14 games played

Straight up

9-5

64% wins

Against the spread

8-6

57% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-10

29% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-564%

W L L L W W L L W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-657%

W L W W L W L L L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-1029%

U O U U O U O U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PRES	W 76-55	-3.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 7	vsYALE	L 68-97	+5.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 165
Nov 11	@PSU	L 71-80	+11.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 18	@UNC	L 61-73	+26.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 134
Nov 22	vsNJIT	W 86-70	-17.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 26	vsGWEB	W 84-51	-10.5	W +22.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 28	@UNCW	L 57-87	+8.5	L −21.5	138.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsSELA	L 65-69	-3.5	L −7.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 3	@DSU	W 66-59	-15.5	L −8.5	132.5	U 125
Dec 7	vsAF	W 61-56	-9.5	L −4.5	133.5	U 117
Dec 19	vsCOPP	W 88-55	-20.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 31	vsBU	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	137.5	O 159
Jan 3	@HC	W 65-58	-5.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 123
Jan 7	vsBUCK	W 76-55	-8.5	W +12.5	137.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

+17.5

YALE

L 68-97

−23.5

PSU

L 71-80

+2.5

UNC

L 61-73

+14.5

NJIT

W 86-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 84-51

+22.5

UNCW

L 57-87

−21.5

SELA

L 65-69

−7.5

DSU

W 66-59

−8.5

W 61-56

−4.5

COPP

W 88-55

+12.5

W 82-77

+0.5

W 65-58

+1.5

BUCK

W 76-55

+12.5

covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRES

W 76-55

−10.5

YALE

L 68-97

+17.5

PSU

L 71-80

−4.5

UNC

L 61-73

−26.5

NJIT

W 86-70

+15.5

GWEB

W 84-51

−18.5

UNCW

L 57-87

+5.5

SELA

L 65-69

−2.5

DSU

W 66-59

−7.5

W 61-56

−16.5

COPP

W 88-55

−2.5

W 82-77

+21.5

W 65-58

−14.5

BUCK

W 76-55

−6.5

over 4under 10avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lafayette @ Navy

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Lafayette

Navy

Lafayette

Navy