Broadview Arena · at Buffalo · Conference game
Closing line
BUF -1.5✓ MASS covered by 2.5
BUF -1.5✓ MASS covered by 2.5Closing total159.5Under by 24.5
 MASS | This season | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 11-8 | Record | 11-6 |
| 8-11 | ATS | 11-6 |
| 12-7 | O/U | 10-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MASS 80–80 BUF · ✗ BUF (52%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MASS | 38 | 30 | 68 |
| BUF | 29 | 38 | 67 |
1st half: MASS 38, BUF 29 (MASS by 9). The model had BUF by 0.2 and a total of 74.8 (actual 67).
Team stats
| MASS | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-58 45% | Field goals | 26-52 50% |
| 6-20 30% | 3-pointers | 8-25 32% |
| 10-16 63% | Free throws | 7-14 50% |
| 36 12 off | Rebounds | 28 5 off |
| 13 | Assists | 17 |
| 8 | Steals | 7 |
| 1 | Blocks | 1 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| MASS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Hankins-Sanford F | 35 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-2 |
| Leonardo Bettiol F | 34 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 7-10 | 0-0 |
| Marcus Banks Jr. G | 34 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 6-15 | 4-10 |
| Danny Carbuccia G | 29 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2-9 | 0-2 |
| Jayden Ndjigue G | 23 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| K'Jei Parker G | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Dwayne Wimbley Jr. F | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Luka Damjanac F | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Placide G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: CJ Outlaw, Bilal Osman, Dimitri Clerc, Donovan Brown, Josh Engel, Rollie Castineyra
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sabol G | 40 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 10-18 | 5-12 |
| Daniel Freitag G | 37 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 6-15 | 1-7 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 35 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 7-7 | 2-2 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 18 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Tim Oboh F | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ezra McKenna F | 26 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 22 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Kyle Jones, Matas Buteliauskas, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBUF -1.5
ModelBUF -0.6
Model edgeMASS +0.9
W MASS covered
Total
Market159.5
Model159.8
Model edgeOver 0.3
L Under
Projected score
MASS 79.6 · BUF 80.2
MASS 68 · BUF 67
Win probability
BUF 52%
1st half
Spread
BUF -0.2
MASS -9.0
Total
74.8
67 points
Projected score
MASS 37.3 · BUF 37.5
MASS 38 · BUF 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMASS -1.5
3 → BUF
CloseBUF -1.5
3 pts toward BUF
Total
Open159.5
no move
Close159.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MASS +105 · BUF -125
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MASS -1.5 · closed BUF -1.5 · moved 3 toward BUFmodel BUF -0.5
model BUF -0.5
Opened 159.5 · unchangedmodel 160
model 160
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MASS | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% |
| BUF | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UMass
19 games played
Straight up
11-8
58% wins
Against the spread
8-11
42% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-7
63% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MRSH | L 72-78 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs UALB | W 83-62 | -9.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 13 | vs LEM | W 94-80 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 16 | vs CCSU | W 84-77 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 21 | vs COFC | L 65-69 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 161.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 22 | vs GB | L 75-79 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORST | W 73-65 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 3 | vs HARV | W 78-71 | -5.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 6 | vs UML | W 80-60 | -11.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 10 | vs BC | W 76-74 | +1.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs FSU | W 103-95 | +12.5 | W +20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 20 | vs KENT | L 59-69 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 30 | @ EMU | L 74-80 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 148.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 3 | vs BGSU | L 100-101 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 6 | @ OHIO | L 83-86 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | vs BALL | W 79-71 | -10.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 13 | @ WMU | W 85-82 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 17 | @ NIU | L 68-70 | -8.5 | L −10.5 | 157.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | vs TOL | W 84-82 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMRSH
MRSHL 72-78
−10.5
8
vsUALB
UALBW 83-62
+11.5
13
vsLEM
LEMW 94-80
−2.5
16
vsCCSU
CCSUW 84-77
−5.5
21
vsCOFC
COFCL 65-69
−0.5
22
vsGB
GBL 75-79
−9.5
24
vsORST
ORSTW 73-65
+11.5
3
vsHARV
HARVW 78-71
+1.5
6
vsUML
UMLW 80-60
+8.5
10
vsBC
BCW 76-74
+3.5
13
vsFSU
FSUW 103-95
+20.5
20
vsKENT
KENTL 59-69
−8.5
30
@EMU
EMUL 74-80
−8.5
3
vsBGSU
BGSUL 100-101
+0.5
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 83-86
+1.5
10
vsBALL
BALLW 79-71
−2.5
13
@WMU
WMUW 85-82
−2.5
17
@NIU
NIUL 68-70
−10.5
20
vsTOL
TOLW 84-82
−0.5
covered 8didn’t cover 11avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMRSH
MRSHL 72-78
−2.5
8
vsUALB
UALBW 83-62
−10.5
13
vsLEM
LEMW 94-80
+20.5
16
vsCCSU
CCSUW 84-77
+16.5
21
vsCOFC
COFCL 65-69
−27.5
22
vsGB
GBL 75-79
+7.5
24
vsORST
ORSTW 73-65
−11.5
3
vsHARV
HARVW 78-71
+5.5
6
vsUML
UMLW 80-60
−15.5
10
vsBC
BCW 76-74
+6.5
13
vsFSU
FSUW 103-95
+32.5
20
vsKENT
KENTL 59-69
−35.5
30
@EMU
EMUL 74-80
+5.5
3
vsBGSU
BGSUL 100-101
+48.5
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 83-86
+8.5
10
vsBALL
BALLW 79-71
+2.5
13
@WMU
WMUW 85-82
+9.5
17
@NIU
NIUL 68-70
−19.5
20
vsTOL
TOLW 84-82
+1.5
over 12under 7avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Buffalo
17 games played
Straight up
11-6
65% wins
Against the spread
11-6
65% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-7
59% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vsGB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vsBALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @OHIO | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vsKENT | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @ M-OH | L 102-105 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | vs AKR | L 63-82 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
−6.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
−3.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+7.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−10.5
covered 11didn’t cover 6avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
+14.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
+2.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+44.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−21.5
over 10under 7avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UMass
11-8 overall · 3-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Toledo84–82
- L@ N Illinois68–70
- W@ W Michigan85–82
- Wvs Ball State79–71
- L@ Ohio83–86
3 days since their last game.
Buffalo
11-6 overall · 3-4 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Akron63–82
- L@ Miami OH102–105
- Lvs Kent State81–87
- L@ Ohio80–91
- Wvs Ball State85–72
3 days since their last game.