Convocation Center (OH) · at Ohio · Conference game
Closing line
AKR -6.5✓ AKR covered by 14.5
AKR -6.5✓ AKR covered by 14.5Closing total167.5Under by 16.5
| AKR | This season | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| 13-4 | Record | 9-9 |
| 10-7 | ATS | 7-11 |
| 10-7 | O/U | 10-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: AKR 89–82 OHIO · ✓ AKR (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 48 | 38 | 86 |
| OHIO | 26 | 39 | 65 |
1st half: AKR 48, OHIO 26 (AKR by 22). The model had AKR by 4.1 and a total of 79.8 (actual 74).
Team stats
| AKR | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-61 49% | Field goals | 20-61 33% |
| 6-17 35% | 3-pointers | 4-17 24% |
| 20-26 77% | Free throws | 21-27 78% |
| 44 11 off | Rebounds | 30 10 off |
| 12 | Assists | 5 |
| 2 | Steals | 9 |
| 5 | Blocks | 8 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| AKR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Mahaffey F | 30 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4-10 | 0-1 |
| Tavari Johnson G | 29 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 10-13 | 0-1 |
| Amani Lyles F | 26 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-2 |
| Sharron Young G | 22 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Zach Halligan F | 20 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Shammah Scott G | 26 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 5-12 | 3-6 |
| Eric Mahaffey G | 25 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bowen Hardman G | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Marvin Musiime-Kamali F | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Rich Brisco F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Conner Groce G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ognjen Stankovic F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cody Head, Chabi Barre, Tai Perkins, Josh Henderson
| OHIO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Paveletzke G | 37 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 4-11 | 1-2 |
| JJ Kelly G | 36 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-4 |
| Aidan Hadaway F | 32 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3-10 | 0-2 |
| Javan Simmons F | 27 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 5-10 | 0-0 |
| Ajay Sheldon G | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Elijah Elliott G | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Jalen Breath F | 13 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Dior Conners G | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-7 | 1-5 |
| Kiir Kuany F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chase Boals, Jesse Burris, Ayden Evans, Zay Mosley, Carter Reese, Jordan Fisher
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketAKR -6.5
ModelAKR -6.6
Model edgeAKR +0.1
W AKR covered
Total
Market167.5
Model170.4
Model edgeOver 2.9
L Under
Projected score
AKR 88.5 · OHIO 81.9
AKR 86 · OHIO 65
Win probability
AKR 72%
1st half
Spread
AKR -4.1
AKR -22.0
Total
79.8
74 points
Projected score
AKR 41.9 · OHIO 37.8
AKR 48 · OHIO 26
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAKR -8.5
2 → OHIO
CloseAKR -6.5
2 pts toward OHIO
Total
Open168.5
▼ 1
Close167.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
AKR -345 · OHIO +275
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AKR -8.5 · closed AKR -6.5 · moved 2 toward OHIOmodel AKR -6.5 matches the line
model AKR -6.5 = line ✓
Opened 168.5 · closed 167.5 · moved 1 downmodel 170.5
model 170.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| OHIO | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
AKR 5–4 OHIOAKR leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · AKR 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | AKR 67 @ OHIO 84 | OHIO +1.5 | OHIO W |
| Jan 17, 2024-25 | OHIO 80 @ AKR 92 | AKR -3.5 | AKR W |
| Mar 15, 2023-24 | OHIO 62 vs AKR 65 | AKR -1.5 | AKR W |
| Feb 27, 2023-24 | AKR 67 @ OHIO 74 | OHIO -1.5 | OHIO W |
| Jan 23, 2023-24 | OHIO 58 @ AKR 67 | AKR -7.5 | AKR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Akron
17 games played
Straight up
13-4
76% wins
Against the spread
10-7
59% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-7
59% overs · avg +6.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JMU | W 85-71 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 8 | vs PRIN | W 104-69 | -13.5 | W +21.5 | 156.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 16 | @ PUR | L 79-97 | +18.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 21 | vs IONA | W 96-75 | -11.5 | W +9.5 | 173.5 | U 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs EVAN | W 97-59 | -11.5 | W +26.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs YALE | L 94-97 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 29 | vs MILW | W 105-81 | -12.5 | W +11.5 | 166.5 | O 186 |
| Dec 3 | vs BUCK | W 97-77 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 6 | @ TULN | W 88-71 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 162.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs MUR | L 100-115 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 168.5 | O 215 |
| Dec 19 | vs EMU | W 93-72 | -15.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | @ M-OH | L 73-76 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 177.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 6 | vs CMU | W 82-69 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 9 | @ BGSU | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 13 | vs BALL | W 87-77 | -20.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 17 | vs WMU | W 104-89 | -21.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | O 193 |
| Jan 20 | @ BUF | W 82-63 | -8.5 | W +10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJMU
JMUW 85-71
+5.5
8
vsPRIN
PRINW 104-69
+21.5
16
@PUR
PURL 79-97
+0.5
21
vsIONA
IONAW 96-75
+9.5
23
vsEVAN
EVANW 97-59
+26.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 94-97
−4.5
29
vsMILW
MILWW 105-81
+11.5
3
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-77
−3.5
6
@TULN
TULNW 88-71
+10.5
13
vsMUR
MURL 100-115
−19.5
19
vsEMU
EMUW 93-72
+5.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 73-76
−7.5
6
vsCMU
CMUW 82-69
−10.5
9
@BGSU
BGSUW 77-67
+5.5
13
vsBALL
BALLW 87-77
−10.5
17
vsWMU
WMUW 104-89
−6.5
20
@BUF
BUFW 82-63
+10.5
covered 10didn’t cover 7avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJMU
JMUW 85-71
+2.5
8
vsPRIN
PRINW 104-69
+16.5
16
@PUR
PURL 79-97
+12.5
21
vsIONA
IONAW 96-75
−2.5
23
vsEVAN
EVANW 97-59
−0.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 94-97
+34.5
29
vsMILW
MILWW 105-81
+19.5
3
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-77
+16.5
6
@TULN
TULNW 88-71
−3.5
13
vsMUR
MURL 100-115
+46.5
19
vsEMU
EMUW 93-72
+9.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 73-76
−28.5
6
vsCMU
CMUW 82-69
−13.5
9
@BGSU
BGSUW 77-67
−19.5
13
vsBALL
BALLW 87-77
+11.5
17
vsWMU
WMUW 104-89
+29.5
20
@BUF
BUFW 82-63
−21.5
over 10under 7avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Ohio
18 games played
Straight up
9-9
50% wins
Against the spread
7-11
39% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-8
56% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARST | L 85-89 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 6 | vs ILST | W 72-68 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 11 | @ SMC | L 60-90 | +17.5 | L −12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 15 | @ LOU | L 81-106 | +31.5 | W +6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 19 | vs BCU | L 73-76 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs GMU | L 69-92 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 142.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 25 | vs LMU | L 58-70 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 3 | vs ME | W 79-57 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 6 | vs MRSH | W 88-81 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 13 | vs SBU | W 88-83 | +6.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 20 | vsBGSU | L 58-68 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | @CMU | W 80-64 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 3 | @EMU | W 68-67 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | vs MASS | W 86-83 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | vsBUF | W 91-80 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | @ TOL | L 85-101 | +2.5 | L −13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @BALL | L 71-76 | -5.5 | L −10.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 20 | vs NIU | W 80-77 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
−7.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
+2.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
−12.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+6.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−9.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
−15.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−8.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
+9.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+3.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+11.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−8.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
+9.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−1.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
−1.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+6.5
13
@TOL
TOLL 85-101
−13.5
16
@BALL
BALLL 71-76
−10.5
20
vsNIU
NIUW 80-77
−8.5
covered 7didn’t cover 11avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
+14.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
−21.5
11
@SMC
SMCL 60-90
+5.5
15
@LOU
LOUL 81-106
+12.5
19
vsBCU
BCUL 73-76
−8.5
24
vsGMU
GMUL 69-92
+18.5
25
vsLMU
LMUL 58-70
−16.5
3
vsME
MEW 79-57
−2.5
6
vsMRSH
MRSHW 88-81
+11.5
13
vsSBU
SBUW 88-83
+20.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUL 58-68
−27.5
30
@CMU
CMUW 80-64
−7.5
3
@EMU
EMUW 68-67
−15.5
6
vsMASS
MASSW 86-83
+8.5
10
vsBUF
BUFW 91-80
+14.5
13
@TOL
TOLL 85-101
+24.5
16
@BALL
BALLL 71-76
−0.5
20
vsNIU
NIUW 80-77
+2.5
over 10under 8avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Akron
13-4 overall · 6-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Buffalo82–63
- Wvs W Michigan104–89
- Wvs Ball State87–77
- W@ Bowling Green77–67
- Wvs C Michigan82–69
3 days since their last game.
Ohio
9-9 overall · 5-3 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs N Illinois80–77
- L@ Ball State71–76
- L@ Toledo85–101
- Wvs Buffalo91–80
- Wvs UMass86–83
3 days since their last game.