McGuirk Arena · at C Michigan · Conference game
Closing line
TOL -7.5✓ CMU covered by 4.5
TOL -7.5✓ CMU covered by 4.5Closing total158.5Under by 5.5
| TOL | This season | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | Record | 2-10 |
| 5-6 | ATS | 5-7 |
| 5-6 | O/U | 5-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TOL 81–75 CMU · ✓ TOL (70%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 31 | 47 | 78 |
| CMU | 41 | 34 | 75 |
1st half: TOL 31, CMU 41 (CMU by 10). The model had TOL by 3.7 and a total of 73.4 (actual 72).
Team stats
| TOL | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-60 40% | Field goals | 29-60 48% |
| 4-12 33% | 3-pointers | 8-19 42% |
| 26-32 81% | Free throws | 9-12 75% |
| 41 13 off | Rebounds | 28 4 off |
| 13 | Assists | 12 |
| 4 | Steals | 4 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 22 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 39 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 2-12 | 1-4 |
| Sonny Wilson G | 38 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 6-15 | 0-1 |
| Sean Craig F | 35 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 33 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 6-9 | 2-3 |
| Austin Parks C | 30 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 5-11 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mynor Strong G | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Will James Jr. G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Toby Nwokolo, London Praytor, Phoenix Glassnor, Tyler Ode, Chris Riddle
| CMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamario Adley G | 31 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3-11 | 1-2 |
| Phat Phat Brooks G | 25 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 6-13 | 0-0 |
| Nick Mullen F | 24 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Logan McIntire G | 23 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 5-8 | 5-8 |
| Jaxson Whitaker G | 23 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nathan Claerbaut C | 27 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Keenan Garner F | 25 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Kampen G | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Will Ashford G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jorden Brooks, Kayden Nation, Kareem Aburashed, Nsikan Usen, Uchenna Amene, Rodney Johnson Jr.
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTOL -7.5
ModelTOL -6.0
Model edgeCMU +1.5
W CMU covered
Total
Market158.5
Model156.8
Model edgeUnder 1.7
W Under
Projected score
TOL 81.4 · CMU 75.4
TOL 78 · CMU 75
Win probability
TOL 70%
1st half
Spread
TOL -3.7
CMU -10.0
Total
73.4
72 points
Projected score
TOL 38.6 · CMU 34.9
TOL 31 · CMU 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTOL -8.5
1 → CMU
CloseTOL -7.5
1 pt toward CMU
Total
Open159.5
▼ 1
Close158.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
TOL -355 · CMU +280
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TOL -8.5 · closed TOL -7.5 · moved 1 toward CMUmodel TOL -6
model TOL -6
Opened 159.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 1 downmodel 157
model 157
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| CMU | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
TOL 6–1 CMUTOL leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · TOL 3-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2024-25 | CMU 67 @ TOL 69 | TOL -4.5 | CMU W |
| Jan 19, 2023-24 | TOL 62 @ CMU 65 | CMU +7.5 | CMU W |
| Feb 28, 2022-23 | TOL 99 @ CMU 65 | CMU +15.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 4, 2022-23 | CMU 59 @ TOL 84 | TOL -18.5 | TOL W |
| Mar 10, 2021-22 | CMU 71 vs TOL 72 | TOL -17 | CMU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Toledo
11 games played
Straight up
5-6
45% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-6
45% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vs WMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
over 5under 6avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
C Michigan
12 games played
Straight up
2-10
17% wins
Against the spread
5-7
42% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs APP | W 82-66 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 8 | @ BRAD | L 54-85 | +9.5 | L −21.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 13 | vsUSA | L 64-66 | +5.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 14 | vs COPP | W 82-59 | -10.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 20 | vs NKU | L 66-90 | -4.5 | L −28.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 22 | @ MARQ | L 71-85 | +25.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 2 | @ LUC | L 72-83 | +6.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 7 | @ SLU | L 65-107 | +24.5 | L −17.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | @ STBK | L 55-78 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 20 | @ NIU | L 73-74 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 22 | @ WIS | L 61-88 | +26.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 30 | vs OHIO | L 64-80 | +6.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsAPP
APPW 82-66
+14.5
8
@BRAD
BRADL 54-85
−21.5
13
vsUSA
USAL 64-66
+3.5
14
vsCOPP
COPPW 82-59
+12.5
20
vsNKU
NKUL 66-90
−28.5
22
@MARQ
MARQL 71-85
+11.5
2
@LUC
LUCL 72-83
−4.5
7
@SLU
SLUL 65-107
−17.5
13
@STBK
STBKL 55-78
−15.5
20
@NIU
NIUL 73-74
+1.5
22
@WIS
WISL 61-88
−0.5
30
vsOHIO
OHIOL 64-80
−9.5
covered 5didn’t cover 7avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAPP
APPW 82-66
+5.5
8
@BRAD
BRADL 54-85
−8.5
13
vsUSA
USAL 64-66
−12.5
14
vsCOPP
COPPW 82-59
−1.5
20
vsNKU
NKUL 66-90
+9.5
22
@MARQ
MARQL 71-85
+3.5
2
@LUC
LUCL 72-83
+14.5
7
@SLU
SLUL 65-107
+11.5
13
@STBK
STBKL 55-78
−12.5
20
@NIU
NIUL 73-74
−2.5
22
@WIS
WISL 61-88
−3.5
30
vsOHIO
OHIOL 64-80
−7.5
over 5under 7avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Toledo
5-6 overall · 1-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs W Michigan84–79
- L@ Michigan St69–92
- L@ Robert Morris70–75
- L@ Oakland97–98
- Lvs Belmont72–87
4 days since their last game.
C Michigan
2-10 overall · 0-2 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Ohio64–80
- L@ Wisconsin61–88
- L@ N Illinois73–74
- L@ Stony Brook55–78
- L@ Saint Louis65–107
4 days since their last game.