Enterprise Center · Neutral site
Closing line
ILL -8.5✓ ILL covered by 34.5
ILL -8.5✓ ILL covered by 34.5Closing total153.5Under by 14.5
 MIZ | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | Record | 8-3 |
| 5-7 | ATS | 6-5 |
| 5-7 | O/U | 4-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIZ 77–85 ILL · ✓ ILL (78%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 25 | 23 | 48 |
| ILL | 41 | 50 | 91 |
1st half: MIZ 25, ILL 41 (ILL by 16). The model had ILL by 5.1 and a total of 75.7 (actual 66).
Team stats
| MIZ | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 16-56 29% | Field goals | 30-58 52% |
| 6-22 27% | 3-pointers | 15-33 45% |
| 10-15 67% | Free throws | 16-20 80% |
| 24 12 off | Rebounds | 43 15 off |
| 6 | Assists | 20 |
| 8 | Steals | 3 |
| 1 | Blocks | 8 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| MIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Crews G | 30 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-9 | 1-4 |
| Mark Mitchell Jr. G | 27 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Anthony Robinson II G | 26 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3-11 | 2-6 |
| Shawn Phillips Jr. C | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Annor Boateng G | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| T.O. Barrett F | 25 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0-6 | 0-3 |
| Sebastian Mack G | 25 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 6-11 | 3-3 |
| Luke Northweather F | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nicholas Randall F | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Trent Burns C | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Aaron Rowe, Trent Pierce, Jevon Porter, Jayden Stone
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 7-11 | 5-6 |
| David Mirkovic F | 29 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 26 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 5-8 | 2-4 |
| Kylan Boswell G | 22 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3-8 | 0-3 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 21 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 4-7 | 3-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ben Humrichous F | 23 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3-6 | 3-5 |
| Jake Davis F | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 17 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| Brandon Lee G | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jason Jakstys C | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ty Rodgers, Blake Fagbemi, AJ Redd
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILL -8.5
ModelILL -8.7
Model edgeILL +0.2
W ILL covered
Total
Market153.5
Model161.7
Model edgeOver 8.2
L Under
Projected score
MIZ 76.5 · ILL 85.2
MIZ 48 · ILL 91
Win probability
ILL 78%
1st half
Spread
ILL -5.1
ILL -16.0
Total
75.7
66 points
Projected score
MIZ 35.3 · ILL 40.4
MIZ 25 · ILL 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -8.5
no move
CloseILL -8.5
No change since the open
Total
Open156.5
▼ 3
Close153.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
MIZ +350 · ILL -455
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -8.5 · unchangedmodel ILL -8.5 matches the line
model ILL -8.5 = line ✓
Opened 156.5 · closed 153.5 · moved 3 downmodel 161.5
model 161.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| ILL | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MIZ 1–3 ILLILL leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · ILL has won the last 2 meetings · MIZ 2-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2024-25 | ILL 80 vs MIZ 77 | MIZ +3.5 | MIZ W |
| Dec 22, 2023-24 | MIZ 73 vs ILL 97 | ILL -6.5 | ILL W |
| Dec 22, 2022-23 | ILL 71 vs MIZ 93 | MIZ +6.5 | MIZ W |
| Dec 22, 2021-22 | MIZ 63 vs ILL 88 | ILL -14.5 | ILL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Missouri
12 games played
Straight up
10-2
83% wins
Against the spread
5-7
42% covers · avg −3.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ HOW | W 88-67 | -20.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 7 | vs SEMO | W 89-84 | -25.5 | L −20.5 | 157.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 9 | vs VMI | W 106-68 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 12 | vs MINN | W 83-60 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 17 | vs PV | W 91-73 | -35.5 | L −17.5 | 166.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 20 | vs SDAK | W 102-68 | -24.5 | W +9.5 | 171.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs SCST | W 98-66 | -34.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs CLE | W 86-59 | -31.5 | L −4.5 | 170.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 2 | @ ND | L 71-76 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 7 | vs KU | L 60-80 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 11 | vs ALST | W 85-77 | -26.5 | L −18.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | vs BCU | W 82-60 | -20.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
+0.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
−20.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+14.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
+15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−17.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
+9.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
−2.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−4.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
−6.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−14.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
−18.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
+1.5
covered 5didn’t cover 7avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
−3.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
+15.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+12.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
−15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−2.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
−1.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
+3.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−25.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
+0.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−10.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
+6.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
−4.5
over 5under 7avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
11 games played
Straight up
8-3
73% wins
Against the spread
6-5
55% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-7
36% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs NEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
covered 6didn’t cover 5avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
over 4under 7avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Missouri
10-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bethune82–60
- Wvs Alabama St85–77
- Lvs Kansas60–80
- L@ Notre Dame71–76
- Wvs Cleveland St86–59
A week or more of rest.
Illinois
8-3 overall · 1-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Nebraska80–83
- W@ Ohio State88–80
- Wvs Tennessee75–62
- Lvs UConn61–74
- Wvs UT Rio Grande87–73
A week or more of rest.