Freedom Hall (TN) · at ETSU · Conference game
Closing line
ETSU -11.5✓ ETSU covered by 14.5
ETSU -11.5✓ ETSU covered by 14.5Closing total148.5Under by 2.5
 UNCG | This season | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-10 | Record | 9-5 |
| 5-9 | ATS | 7-7 |
| 10-4 | O/U | 7-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNCG 69–81 ETSU · ✓ ETSU (85%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNCG | 34 | 26 | 60 |
| ETSU | 38 | 48 | 86 |
1st half: UNCG 34, ETSU 38 (ETSU by 4). The model had ETSU by 7.0 and a total of 70.1 (actual 72).
Team stats
| UNCG | ETSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 18-53 34% | Field goals | 37-62 60% |
| 5-20 25% | 3-pointers | 6-18 33% |
| 19-25 76% | Free throws | 6-8 75% |
| 36 13 off | Rebounds | 27 3 off |
| 7 | Assists | 17 |
| 5 | Steals | 15 |
| 1 | Blocks | 4 |
| 21 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 54 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| UNCG | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Whitehead Jr. G | 29 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2-9 | 1-7 |
| KJ Younger G | 29 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 5-12 | 0-4 |
| Justin Neely F | 29 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 2-7 | 0-0 |
| Noah Norgaard G | 26 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-2 |
| Valentino Pinedo F | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Lilian Marville G | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Clinton Efinda F | 17 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Assane Mandian G | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Domas Kauzonas F | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Clyde Bailey II G | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Chane Bynum F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Braylen Bowman G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Jordan Brown, Antwann Jones, Landon King
| ETSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Barkley F | 29 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 11-14 | 0-0 |
| Brian Taylor II G | 27 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 6-10 | 0-0 |
| Cam Morris III F | 27 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 6-10 | 0-2 |
| Jordan McCullum F | 25 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Allen Strothers G | 23 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Smith G | 31 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 4-9 | 1-6 |
| Maki Johnson G | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Gabe Sisk G | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Sutherland F | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Milton Matthews III G | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Joseph Carter G | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Henry Sisemore, Frederico Whitaker Jr., Maddox Huff, Brayden Crump
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketETSU -11.5
ModelETSU -12.0
Model edgeETSU +0.5
W ETSU covered
Total
Market148.5
Model149.7
Model edgeOver 1.2
L Under
Projected score
UNCG 68.8 · ETSU 80.8
UNCG 60 · ETSU 86
Win probability
ETSU 85%
1st half
Spread
ETSU -7.0
ETSU -4.0
Total
70.1
72 points
Projected score
UNCG 31.5 · ETSU 38.6
UNCG 34 · ETSU 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenETSU -12.5
1 → UNCG
CloseETSU -11.5
1 pt toward UNCG
Total
Open151.5
▼ 3
Close148.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
UNCG +625 · ETSU -950
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ETSU -12.5 · closed ETSU -11.5 · moved 1 toward UNCGmodel ETSU -12
model ETSU -12
Opened 151.5 · closed 148.5 · moved 3 downmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNCG | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
| ETSU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UNCG 4–5 ETSUETSU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UNCG 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024-25 | UNCG 49 @ ETSU 65 | ETSU -2.5 | ETSU W |
| Jan 29, 2024-25 | ETSU 65 @ UNCG 70 | UNCG -1.5 | UNCG W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | ETSU 73 vs UNCG 62 | UNCG -7.5 | ETSU W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | UNCG 65 @ ETSU 66 | ETSU +2.5 | ETSU W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | ETSU 54 @ UNCG 70 | UNCG -7.5 | UNCG W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UNC Greensboro
14 games played
Straight up
4-10
29% wins
Against the spread
5-9
36% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-4
71% overs · avg +10.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ KSU | L 64-93 | +18.5 | L −10.5 | 148.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 8 | vs ELON | L 90-92 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 142.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 12 | @ NCSU | L 64-110 | +30.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 15 | vs APSU | L 63-69 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 20 | @ QUC | L 94-101 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 23 | vs YSU | W 68-62 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 25 | vs DEL | L 60-73 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 142.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs M-OH | L 71-82 | +10.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNCA | L 77-82 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ ECU | W 82-78 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 16 | vs NCAT | L 65-71 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 1 | vs UTC | W 77-72 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 3 | vs SAM | W 89-82 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 7 | @ WOF | L 85-97 | +7.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@KSU
KSUL 64-93
−10.5
8
vsELON
ELONL 90-92
−6.5
12
@NCSU
NCSUL 64-110
−15.5
15
vsAPSU
APSUL 63-69
−7.5
20
@QUC
QUCL 94-101
+0.5
23
vsYSU
YSUW 68-62
+11.5
25
vsDEL
DELL 60-73
−14.5
26
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-82
−0.5
2
vsUNCA
UNCAL 77-82
−0.5
6
@ECU
ECUW 82-78
+11.5
16
vsNCAT
NCATL 65-71
−12.5
1
vsUTC
UTCW 77-72
+7.5
3
vsSAM
SAMW 89-82
+9.5
7
@WOF
WOFL 85-97
−4.5
covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@KSU
KSUL 64-93
+8.5
8
vsELON
ELONL 90-92
+39.5
12
@NCSU
NCSUL 64-110
+20.5
15
vsAPSU
APSUL 63-69
−13.5
20
@QUC
QUCL 94-101
+44.5
23
vsYSU
YSUW 68-62
−22.5
25
vsDEL
DELL 60-73
−9.5
26
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-82
+2.5
2
vsUNCA
UNCAL 77-82
+15.5
6
@ECU
ECUW 82-78
+20.5
16
vsNCAT
NCATL 65-71
−11.5
1
vsUTC
UTCW 77-72
+1.5
3
vsSAM
SAMW 89-82
+19.5
7
@WOF
WOFL 85-97
+28.5
over 10under 4avg +10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
ETSU
14 games played
Straight up
9-5
64% wins
Against the spread
7-7
50% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-7
50% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ PRES | L 64-68 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 12 | vs NKU | W 75-63 | -6.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | @ UNA | W 78-74 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 21 | vs MORE | W 77-62 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 23 | vs ULM | W 97-55 | -19.5 | W +22.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 29 | vs CARK | W 80-57 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 2 | @ DAY | L 71-88 | +11.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 5 | vs USA | W 91-65 | -7.5 | W +18.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 12 | @APSU | L 75-76 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 16 | @ UNC | L 58-77 | +17.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs JXST | L 75-81 | -9.5 | L −15.5 | 134.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 30 | @ CIT | W 74-49 | -12.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 3 | vs MER | W 77-71 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vs VMI | W 81-67 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@PRES
PRESL 64-68
−10.5
12
vsNKU
NKUW 75-63
+5.5
15
@UNA
UNAW 78-74
+5.5
21
vsMORE
MOREW 77-62
+4.5
23
vsULM
ULMW 97-55
+22.5
29
vsCARK
CARKW 80-57
+10.5
2
@DAY
DAYL 71-88
−5.5
5
vsUSA
USAW 91-65
+18.5
12
@APSU
APSUL 75-76
−4.5
16
@UNC
UNCL 58-77
−1.5
20
vsJXST
JXSTL 75-81
−15.5
30
@CIT
CITW 74-49
+12.5
3
vsMER
MERW 77-71
−1.5
7
vsVMI
VMIW 81-67
−2.5
covered 7didn’t cover 7avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@PRES
PRESL 64-68
−9.5
12
vsNKU
NKUW 75-63
−4.5
15
@UNA
UNAW 78-74
+6.5
21
vsMORE
MOREW 77-62
−5.5
23
vsULM
ULMW 97-55
+5.5
29
vsCARK
CARKW 80-57
−7.5
2
@DAY
DAYL 71-88
+18.5
5
vsUSA
USAW 91-65
+12.5
12
@APSU
APSUL 75-76
+7.5
16
@UNC
UNCL 58-77
−15.5
20
vsJXST
JXSTL 75-81
+21.5
30
@CIT
CITW 74-49
−17.5
3
vsMER
MERW 77-71
−0.5
7
vsVMI
VMIW 81-67
+1.5
over 7under 7avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UNC Greensboro
4-10 overall · 2-1 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Wofford85–97
- Wvs Samford89–82
- Wvs Chattanooga77–72
- Lvs NC A&T65–71
- W@ East Carolina82–78
3 days since their last game.
ETSU
9-5 overall · 3-0 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs VMI81–67
- Wvs Mercer77–71
- W@ The Citadel74–49
- Lvs Jax State75–81
- L@ North Carolina58–77
3 days since their last game.