State Farm Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
UK -1.5✓ UK covered by 10.5
UK -1.5✓ UK covered by 10.5Closing total154.5Under by 10.5
 SJU | This season | UK |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | Record | 7-4 |
| 5-5 | ATS | 5-6 |
| 4-6 | O/U | 5-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SJU 81–78 UK · ✗ SJU (61%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJU | 32 | 34 | 66 |
| UK | 25 | 53 | 78 |
1st half: SJU 32, UK 25 (SJU by 7). The model had SJU by 2.1 and a total of 74.4 (actual 57).
Team stats
| SJU | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-51 33% | Field goals | 28-61 46% |
| 5-19 26% | 3-pointers | 4-16 25% |
| 27-32 84% | Free throws | 18-22 82% |
| 28 11 off | Rebounds | 39 16 off |
| 14 | Assists | 13 |
| 10 | Steals | 6 |
| 5 | Blocks | 7 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 16 |
| 24 | Fouls | 25 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| SJU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oziyah Sellers G | 33 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Bryce Hopkins F | 29 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 4-11 | 1-3 |
| Ian Jackson G | 29 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| Zuby Ejiofor F | 27 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 3-11 | 1-5 |
| Joson Sanon G | 19 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dillon Mitchell F | 29 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Ruben Prey F | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Dylan Darling G | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Sadiku Ibine Ayo F | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Lefteris Liotopoulos G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Imran Suljanovic, Fotis Konstantinidis, Casper Pohto, Kelvin Odih, Handje Tamba
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otega Oweh G | 34 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 6-17 | 0-3 |
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 27 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Mo Dioubate F | 22 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 22 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Collin Chandler G | 19 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kam Williams G | 21 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Jayden Quaintance F | 17 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Jaland Lowe G | 15 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Trent Noah F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Reece Potter, Andrija Jelavic, Zach Tow, Braydon Hawthorne, Walker Horn
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUK -1.5
ModelSJU -3.3
Model edgeSJU +4.8
L UK covered
Total
Market154.5
Model159.1
Model edgeOver 4.6
L Under
Projected score
SJU 81.2 · UK 77.9
SJU 66 · UK 78
Win probability
SJU 61%
1st half
Spread
SJU -2.1
SJU -7.0
Total
74.4
57 points
Projected score
SJU 38.3 · UK 36.2
SJU 32 · UK 25
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSJU -2.5
4 → UK
CloseUK -1.5
4 pts toward UK
Total
Open156.5
▼ 2
Close154.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
SJU -105 · UK -115
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SJU -2.5 · closed UK -1.5 · moved 4 toward UKmodel SJU -3.5
model SJU -3.5
Opened 156.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 2 downmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJU | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| UK | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
St John's
10 games played
Straight up
7-3
70% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-6
40% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs QUIN | W 108-74 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 8 | vs ALA | L 96-103 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 172.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 15 | vs W&M | W 93-60 | -28.5 | W +4.5 | 179.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 20 | vs BUCK | W 97-49 | -28.5 | W +19.5 | 158.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 24 | vs ISU | L 82-83 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 25 | vs BAY | W 96-81 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs AUB | L 74-85 | -4.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs MISS | W 63-58 | -13.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 13 | vs IONA | W 91-64 | -28.5 | L −1.5 | 159.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 16 | vs DEP | W 79-66 | -19.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsQUIN
QUINW 108-74
+7.5
8
vsALA
ALAL 96-103
−11.5
15
vsW&M
W&MW 93-60
+4.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-49
+19.5
24
vsISU
ISUL 82-83
+1.5
25
vsBAY
BAYW 96-81
+9.5
26
vsAUB
AUBL 74-85
−15.5
6
vsMISS
MISSW 63-58
−8.5
13
vsIONA
IONAW 91-64
−1.5
16
vsDEP
DEPW 79-66
−6.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsQUIN
QUINW 108-74
+25.5
8
vsALA
ALAL 96-103
+26.5
15
vsW&M
W&MW 93-60
−26.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-49
−12.5
24
vsISU
ISUL 82-83
+6.5
25
vsBAY
BAYW 96-81
+17.5
26
vsAUB
AUBL 74-85
−7.5
6
vsMISS
MISSW 63-58
−30.5
13
vsIONA
IONAW 91-64
−4.5
16
vsDEP
DEPW 79-66
−2.5
over 4under 6avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kentucky
11 games played
Straight up
7-4
64% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-6
45% overs · avg −7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 9 | vs NCCU | W 103-67 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 13 | vs IU | W 72-60 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
−6.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
+8.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
+21.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
−24.5
over 5under 6avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
St John's
7-3 overall · 1-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs DePaul79–66
- Wvs Iona91–64
- Wvs Ole Miss63–58
- Lvs Auburn74–85
- Wvs Baylor96–81
4 days since their last game.
Kentucky
7-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Indiana72–60
- Wvs NC Central103–67
- Lvs Gonzaga59–94
- Lvs North Carolina64–67
- Wvs Tennessee Tech104–54
A week or more of rest.