Mott Athletics Center · at Cal Poly · Conference game
Closing line
UCD -1.5✓ CP covered by 7.5
UCD -1.5✓ CP covered by 7.5Closing total168.5Under by 6.5
| UCD | This season | CP |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | Record | 4-11 |
| 7-5 | ATS | 7-8 |
| 9-3 | O/U | 9-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UCD 84–82 CP · ✗ UCD (56%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCD | 40 | 38 | 78 |
| CP | 30 | 54 | 84 |
1st half: UCD 40, CP 30 (UCD by 10). The model had UCD by 1.2 and a total of 77.5 (actual 70).
Team stats
| UCD | CP | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-63 40% | Field goals | 24-57 42% |
| 11-28 39% | 3-pointers | 10-34 29% |
| 17-20 85% | Free throws | 26-28 93% |
| 37 9 off | Rebounds | 38 7 off |
| 17 | Assists | 12 |
| 6 | Steals | 6 |
| 0 | Blocks | 1 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 20 | Fouls | 18 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| UCD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Fagbemi G | 33 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2-10 | 1-1 |
| Connor Sevilla G | 30 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3-14 | 2-8 |
| Nils Cooper G | 27 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Chappell F | 25 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2-7 | 2-6 |
| Marcus Wilson G | 20 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Carl Daughtery Jr. G | 32 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 6-10 | 4-8 |
| Jalen Stokes G | 17 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Omer Suljanovic F | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Cyril Franklin Jr. G | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Chase Rawlins G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ylan Esso-Essis, Jonathan Noudjihidi, Abdullah Amzil, Niko Rocak
| CP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Davis G | 37 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-6 |
| Hamad Mousa G | 36 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 6-14 | 2-8 |
| Kieran Elliott G | 26 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Cayden Ward G | 26 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Peter Bandelj G | 22 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 3-7 | 3-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jackson Mosley PG | 23 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| Guzman Vasilic G | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Austin Goode F | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Eric Brown, Jason Scott, Jess Esso Essis, Braden Freeman, Aaron Price Jr., Ali Assran, Luka Tarlac, Troy Plumtree
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCD -1.5
ModelUCD -1.8
Model edgeUCD +0.3
L CP covered
Total
Market168.5
Model165.7
Model edgeUnder 2.8
W Under
Projected score
UCD 83.7 · CP 81.9
UCD 78 · CP 84
Win probability
UCD 56%
1st half
Spread
UCD -1.2
UCD -10.0
Total
77.5
70 points
Projected score
UCD 39.4 · CP 38.2
UCD 40 · CP 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCD -2.5
1 → CP
CloseUCD -1.5
1 pt toward CP
Total
Open166.5
▲ 2
Close168.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
UCD -115 · CP -105
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCD -2.5 · closed UCD -1.5 · moved 1 toward CPmodel UCD -2
model UCD -2
Opened 166.5 · closed 168.5 · moved 2 upmodel 165.5
model 165.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCD | 5-5 50% | 6-3 67% | 8-1 89% |
| CP | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UCD 7–2 CPUCD leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UCD 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024-25 | CP 86 vs UCD 76 | UCD +1.5 | CP W |
| Jan 16, 2024-25 | UCD 65 @ CP 54 | CP -5.5 | UCD W |
| Dec 5, 2024-25 | CP 66 @ UCD 77 | UCD -2.5 | UCD W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | UCD 59 @ CP 52 | CP +9.5 | CP W |
| Dec 30, 2023-24 | CP 46 @ UCD 71 | UCD -10 | UCD W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UC Davis
13 games played
Straight up
7-6
54% wins
Against the spread
7-5
58% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-3
75% overs · avg +9.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs NDSU | W 80-68 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 9 | @ PORT | L 63-67 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 14 | vs SAC | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | @ NEV | W 75-71 | +12.5 | W +16.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 21 | @ COLO | L 79-95 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 24 | vs UL | W 77-56 | -9.5 | W +11.5 | 136.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 4 | @ HAW | L 69-75 | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 13 | @ ORE | L 62-104 | +13.5 | L −28.5 | 146.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 17 | vs SEA | L 78-79 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 21 | @ IDST | W 93-83 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 1 | vs CSUN | W 89-80 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 3 | vs CSUB | L 79-81 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 8 | @ UCSB | W 93-86 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsNDSU
NDSUW 80-68
+10.5
9
@PORT
PORTL 63-67
−2.5
14
vsSAC
SACW 77-73
−0.5
18
@NEV
NEVW 75-71
+16.5
21
@COLO
COLOL 79-95
−1.5
24
vsUL
ULW 77-56
+11.5
13
@ORE
OREL 62-104
−28.5
17
vsSEA
SEAL 78-79
+1.5
21
@IDST
IDSTW 93-83
+15.5
1
vsCSUN
CSUNW 89-80
+5.5
3
vsCSUB
CSUBL 79-81
−11.5
8
@UCSB
UCSBW 93-86
+11.5
covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsNDSU
NDSUW 80-68
+5.5
9
@PORT
PORTL 63-67
−21.5
14
vsSAC
SACW 77-73
−1.5
18
@NEV
NEVW 75-71
+2.5
21
@COLO
COLOL 79-95
+21.5
24
vsUL
ULW 77-56
−3.5
13
@ORE
OREL 62-104
+19.5
17
vsSEA
SEAL 78-79
+13.5
21
@IDST
IDSTW 93-83
+32.5
1
vsCSUN
CSUNW 89-80
+6.5
3
vsCSUB
CSUBL 79-81
+8.5
8
@UCSB
UCSBW 93-86
+31.5
over 9under 3avg +9.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cal Poly
15 games played
Straight up
4-11
27% wins
Against the spread
7-8
47% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-6
60% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ USC | L 64-94 | +24.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 8 | @SEA | W 73-71 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 12 | @ CSU | L 79-93 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 165.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 14 | @ MONT | L 82-90 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 20 | @ UTAH | W 92-85 | +14.5 | W +21.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | @ NAU | L 87-93 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs SEMO | L 68-84 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 170.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 4 | @ CSUF | W 94-91 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 177.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 6 | vs UCR | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | vs MTST | L 80-83 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 19 | @ UCLA | L 87-108 | +24.5 | W +3.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 21 | vs IDHO | L 80-83 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 1 | vs UCSD | W 67-65 | +8.5 | W +10.5 | 174.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 3 | @ LBSU | L 66-74 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 8 | @CSUN | L 90-95 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 175.5 | O 185 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
+12.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+4.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
−0.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+21.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
−7.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−14.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+4.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
−9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
−0.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+3.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−1.5
1
vsUCSD
UCSDW 67-65
+10.5
3
@LBSU
LBSUL 66-74
−5.5
8
@CSUN
CSUNL 90-95
+1.5
covered 7didn’t cover 8avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
−20.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+6.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
+3.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+9.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
+15.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−18.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+7.5
6
vsUCR
UCRL 84-88
+9.5
16
vsMTST
MTSTL 80-83
+3.5
19
@UCLA
UCLAL 87-108
+33.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-83
−4.5
1
vsUCSD
UCSDW 67-65
−42.5
3
@LBSU
LBSUL 66-74
−22.5
8
@CSUN
CSUNL 90-95
+9.5
over 9under 6avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UC Davis
7-6 overall · 2-2 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Santa Barbara93–86
- Lvs Bakersfield79–81
- Wvs CSU Northridge89–80
- W@ Idaho St93–83
- Lvs Seattle U78–79
2 days since their last game.
Cal Poly
4-11 overall · 2-3 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ CSU Northridge90–95
- L@ Long Beach St66–74
- Wvs UC San Diego67–65
- Lvs Idaho80–83
- L@ UCLA87–108
2 days since their last game.