McDermott Center · at Incarnate Word · Conference game
Closing line
UIW -2.5✓ NOLA covered by 16.5
UIW -2.5✓ NOLA covered by 16.5Closing total154.5Under by 12.5
 NOLA | This season | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| 11-15 | Record | 7-16 |
| 14-12 | ATS | 8-15 |
| 17-9 | O/U | 12-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NOLA 78–79 UIW · ✗ UIW (53%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOLA | 39 | 39 | 78 |
| UIW | 28 | 36 | 64 |
1st half: NOLA 39, UIW 28 (NOLA by 11). The model had UIW by 0.5 and a total of 73.7 (actual 67).
Team stats
| NOLA | UIW | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-55 44% | Field goals | 20-55 36% |
| 6-21 29% | 3-pointers | 7-24 29% |
| 24-34 71% | Free throws | 17-25 68% |
| 38 14 off | Rebounds | 38 13 off |
| 11 | Assists | 14 |
| 7 | Steals | 3 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 18 | Fouls | 20 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 17 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| NOLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coleton Benson G | 38 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 5-11 | 3-5 |
| Jakevion Buckley G | 32 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 6-10 | 3-5 |
| TJ Cope G | 24 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Churchill Abass F | 21 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| MJ Thomas F | 14 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Enzo Boudouma F | 26 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Panagiotis Pagonis F | 19 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Kedrick Osby F | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Hercy Miller G | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Jamal Chretien II G | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Irish Coquia G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Mathok Majok, Vieux Sanneh, Eze Nwakamma, Grant Kemp, William Patterson Jr.
| UIW | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahj Staveskie G | 39 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 5-15 | 4-11 |
| Davion Bailey G | 34 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 4-14 | 2-8 |
| Lewis Rowe C | 24 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Pyke G | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Marcus Glover F | 9 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Love Bettis G | 23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Harold Woods G | 23 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-9 | 0-2 |
| Mihael Tomic G | 15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Harrison Reede G | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Esteban Mann F | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Amani Drummond G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tyler Simon, Jayden Williams, Isaiah Kortas, Drew Barbee
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUIW -2.5
ModelUIW -1.0
Model edgeNOLA +1.5
W NOLA covered
Total
Market154.5
Model157.7
Model edgeOver 3.2
L Under
Projected score
NOLA 78.4 · UIW 79.3
NOLA 78 · UIW 64
Win probability
UIW 53%
1st half
Spread
UIW -0.5
NOLA -11.0
Total
73.7
67 points
Projected score
NOLA 36.6 · UIW 37.1
NOLA 39 · UIW 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUIW -1.5
1 → UIW
CloseUIW -2.5
1 pt toward UIW
Total
Open156.5
▼ 2
Close154.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
NOLA +124 · UIW -148
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UIW -1.5 · closed UIW -2.5 · moved 1 toward UIWmodel UIW -1
model UIW -1
Opened 156.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 2 downmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOLA | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% |
| UIW | 2-8 20% | 1-9 10% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
NOLA 4–5 UIWUIW leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · NOLA 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025-26 | UIW 83 @ NOLA 84 | NOLA +1.5 | NOLA W |
| Feb 10, 2024-25 | NOLA 65 @ UIW 75 | UIW -12.5 | NOLA W |
| Jan 27, 2024-25 | UIW 74 @ NOLA 58 | NOLA +5.5 | UIW W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | NOLA 87 @ UIW 80 | UIW -3.5 | NOLA W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | UIW 82 @ NOLA 80 | NOLA -4.5 | UIW W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
LSU N Orleans
26 games played
Straight up
11-15
42% wins
Against the spread
14-12
54% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-9
65% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TCU | W 78-74 | +21.5 | W +25.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 10 | @ LSU | L 58-93 | +19.5 | L −15.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 14 | @ TULN | W 85-63 | +11.5 | W +33.5 | 153.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 18 | @ PEPP | L 79-90 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 21 | @ FRES | L 76-85 | +6.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 24 | @ MSST | L 78-81 | +23.5 | W +20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 26 | @ TTU | L 50-82 | +29.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 3 | @ MEM | L 70-86 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs HCU | L 76-85 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 140.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 8 | vsUIW | W 84-83 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 13 | @ HOU | L 57-99 | +32.5 | L −9.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 29 | @ RGV | W 85-69 | +6.5 | W +22.5 | 152.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 31 | @ AMCC | L 69-83 | +4.5 | L −9.5 | 142.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 3 | @ NWST | L 68-74 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-73 | -6.5 | W +3.5 | 150.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | vs NICH | L 77-90 | +3.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 12 | @ SELA | W 79-76 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 17 | vs SFA | L 79-84 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 19 | vs LAM | W 89-76 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 144.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | @ MCN | L 63-82 | +18.5 | L −0.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 27 | @NICH | W 80-62 | +4.5 | W +22.5 | 157.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 31 | vsNWST | W 75-64 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 2 | @ETAM | W 94-85 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 7 | vsRGV | L 76-95 | +1.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 9 | vsAMCC | W 84-78 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | @HCU | L 60-61 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 121 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TCU
TCUW 78-74
+25.5
10
@LSU
LSUL 58-93
−15.5
14
@TULN
TULNW 85-63
+33.5
18
@PEPP
PEPPL 79-90
−5.5
21
@FRES
FRESL 76-85
−2.5
24
@MSST
MSSTL 78-81
+20.5
26
@TTU
TTUL 50-82
−2.5
3
@MEM
MEML 70-86
−1.5
6
vsHCU
HCUL 76-85
−13.5
8
vsUIW
UIWW 84-83
+2.5
13
@HOU
HOUL 57-99
−9.5
29
@RGV
RGVW 85-69
+22.5
31
@AMCC
AMCCL 69-83
−9.5
3
@NWST
NWSTL 68-74
−7.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-73
+3.5
10
vsNICH
NICHL 77-90
−9.5
12
@SELA
SELAW 79-76
+5.5
17
vsSFA
SFAL 79-84
+1.5
19
vsLAM
LAMW 89-76
+14.5
24
@MCN
MCNL 63-82
−0.5
27
@NICH
NICHW 80-62
+22.5
31
vsNWST
NWSTW 75-64
+6.5
2
@ETAM
ETAMW 94-85
+7.5
7
vsRGV
RGVL 76-95
−17.5
9
vsAMCC
AMCCW 84-78
+7.5
14
@HCU
HCUL 60-61
+0.5
covered 14didn’t cover 12avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TCU
TCUW 78-74
+2.5
10
@LSU
LSUL 58-93
−11.5
14
@TULN
TULNW 85-63
−5.5
18
@PEPP
PEPPL 79-90
+11.5
21
@FRES
FRESL 76-85
+6.5
24
@MSST
MSSTL 78-81
−1.5
26
@TTU
TTUL 50-82
−25.5
3
@MEM
MEML 70-86
+6.5
6
vsHCU
HCUL 76-85
+20.5
8
vsUIW
UIWW 84-83
+18.5
13
@HOU
HOUL 57-99
+17.5
29
@RGV
RGVW 85-69
+1.5
31
@AMCC
AMCCL 69-83
+9.5
3
@NWST
NWSTL 68-74
−7.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-73
+5.5
10
vsNICH
NICHL 77-90
+12.5
12
@SELA
SELAW 79-76
+12.5
17
vsSFA
SFAL 79-84
+15.5
19
vsLAM
LAMW 89-76
+20.5
24
@MCN
MCNL 63-82
−11.5
27
@NICH
NICHW 80-62
−15.5
31
vsNWST
NWSTW 75-64
−14.5
2
@ETAM
ETAMW 94-85
+27.5
7
vsRGV
RGVL 76-95
+19.5
9
vsAMCC
AMCCW 84-78
+15.5
14
@HCU
HCUL 60-61
−27.5
over 17under 9avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Incarnate Word
23 games played
Straight up
7-16
30% wins
Against the spread
8-15
35% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-11
52% overs · avg +3.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ CSU | L 64-98 | +10.5 | L −23.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 16 | @ IU | L 61-69 | +28.5 | W +20.5 | 157.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 20 | vs USI | W 87-81 | -9.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 22 | vs HPU | L 80-91 | +12.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 1 | vsMCN | W 71-67 | +10.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 6 | @NICH | L 67-74 | -1.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 8 | @NOLA | L 83-84 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 15 | @TCU | L 65-69 | +19.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 21 | vs NAU | W 90-66 | -6.5 | W +17.5 | 140.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 30 | vsSELA | W 79-70 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 3 | vsHCU | W 73-56 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 5 | @RGV | L 67-80 | +1.5 | L −11.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Jan 10 | @LAM | L 51-63 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 12 | @SFA | L 46-56 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 140.5 | U 102 |
| Jan 17 | vsNWST | W 76-74 | -8.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 19 | vsETAM | L 58-80 | -6.5 | L −28.5 | 142.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 24 | vsAMCC | L 71-79 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 136.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 27 | @HCU | L 75-81 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 140.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | vsRGV | L 93-106 | +1.5 | L −11.5 | 140.5 | O 199 |
| Feb 2 | @AMCC | W 71-69 | +4.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | U 140 |
| Feb 7 | @MCN | L 64-81 | +16.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 9 | @SELA | L 62-74 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 137.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 14 | vsNICH | L 83-91 | -2.5 | L −10.5 | 148.5 | O 174 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CSU
CSUL 64-98
−23.5
16
@IU
IUL 61-69
+20.5
20
vsUSI
USIW 87-81
−3.5
22
vsHPU
HPUL 80-91
+1.5
1
vsMCN
MCNW 71-67
+14.5
6
@NICH
NICHL 67-74
−8.5
8
@NOLA
NOLAL 83-84
−2.5
15
@TCU
TCUL 65-69
+15.5
21
vsNAU
NAUW 90-66
+17.5
30
vsSELA
SELAW 79-70
+2.5
3
vsHCU
HCUW 73-56
+10.5
5
@RGV
RGVL 67-80
−11.5
10
@LAM
LAML 51-63
−10.5
12
@SFA
SFAL 46-56
−2.5
17
vsNWST
NWSTW 76-74
−6.5
19
vsETAM
ETAML 58-80
−28.5
24
vsAMCC
AMCCL 71-79
−9.5
27
@HCU
HCUL 75-81
−7.5
31
vsRGV
RGVL 93-106
−11.5
2
@AMCC
AMCCW 71-69
+6.5
7
@MCN
MCNL 64-81
−0.5
9
@SELA
SELAL 62-74
−10.5
14
vsNICH
NICHL 83-91
−10.5
covered 8didn’t cover 15avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CSU
CSUL 64-98
+14.5
16
@IU
IUL 61-69
−27.5
20
vsUSI
USIW 87-81
+22.5
22
vsHPU
HPUL 80-91
+10.5
1
vsMCN
MCNW 71-67
−7.5
6
@NICH
NICHL 67-74
−4.5
8
@NOLA
NOLAL 83-84
+18.5
15
@TCU
TCUL 65-69
−9.5
21
vsNAU
NAUW 90-66
+15.5
30
vsSELA
SELAW 79-70
+13.5
3
vsHCU
HCUW 73-56
−12.5
5
@RGV
RGVL 67-80
+0.5
10
@LAM
LAML 51-63
−26.5
12
@SFA
SFAL 46-56
−38.5
17
vsNWST
NWSTW 76-74
+8.5
19
vsETAM
ETAML 58-80
−4.5
24
vsAMCC
AMCCL 71-79
+13.5
27
@HCU
HCUL 75-81
+15.5
31
vsRGV
RGVL 93-106
+58.5
2
@AMCC
AMCCW 71-69
−0.5
7
@MCN
MCNL 64-81
−0.5
9
@SELA
SELAL 62-74
−1.5
14
vsNICH
NICHL 83-91
+25.5
over 12under 11avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
LSU N Orleans
11-15 overall · 9-8 in conference · Southland Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Hou Christian60–61
- Wvs Texas A&M-CC84–78
- Lvs UT Rio Grande76–95
- W@ East Texas A&M94–85
- Wvs N'Western St75–64
2 days since their last game.
Incarnate Word
7-16 overall · 5-12 in conference · Southland Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Nicholls83–91
- L@ SE Louisiana62–74
- L@ McNeese64–81
- W@ Texas A&M-CC71–69
- Lvs UT Rio Grande93–106
2 days since their last game.